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未來五年,這兩大人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化將重塑全球勞動(dòng)力格局

SARA BRAUN
2025-01-17

人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化是推動(dòng)就業(yè)增長的第二大關(guān)鍵因素。

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一位年輕女子和一位年長女子并肩而坐,。圖片來源:MASKOT—GETTY IMAGES

政府和商界領(lǐng)袖對迫在眉睫的人口危機(jī)憂心忡忡已經(jīng)有一段時(shí)間了,,但他們可能僅聚焦于問題的一個(gè)維度,。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)的一份新報(bào)告指出,在未來五年內(nèi),,預(yù)計(jì)有兩大人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化將重塑全球勞動(dòng)力格局,。

首先當(dāng)然是高收入國家面臨的人口老齡化問題。報(bào)告稱,,隨著人口老齡化,,這些國家約40%的雇主將進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)型,這也改變了企業(yè)對員工的看法,。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇未來工作,、薪資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長主管蒂爾·利奧波德(Till Leopold)在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示:“很多公司確實(shí)對勞動(dòng)力短缺感到憂慮,它們愈發(fā)優(yōu)先考慮對現(xiàn)有員工進(jìn)行再培訓(xùn),,并將其轉(zhuǎn)崗至企業(yè)其他部門的新職位,。這些公司正試圖通過內(nèi)部調(diào)配來填補(bǔ)這些空缺,而此前情況并非如此,?!?/p>

然而,第二大人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化則體現(xiàn)在發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體勞動(dòng)年齡人口的持續(xù)增長上,。預(yù)計(jì)到2050年,,這些國家中約25%的國家將為全球提供59%的勞動(dòng)年齡人口。包括印度,、東南亞以及撒哈拉以南非洲國家在內(nèi)的發(fā)展中國家,,在未來數(shù)年間還將為全球提供近三分之二的新增勞動(dòng)力。

或許最耐人尋味的是,,這兩種趨勢都將促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長,。據(jù)該報(bào)告稱,,到2030年,,發(fā)展中國家勞動(dòng)年齡人口的持續(xù)增長將為全球勞動(dòng)力市場創(chuàng)造約910萬個(gè)新的凈就業(yè)崗位。而高收入國家人口老齡化預(yù)計(jì)將為全球勞動(dòng)力市場創(chuàng)造380萬個(gè)新的凈就業(yè)崗位,。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇未來工作,、薪資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長主管蒂爾·利奧波德告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化是推動(dòng)就業(yè)增長的第二大關(guān)鍵因素,對于不斷增長的勞動(dòng)年齡人口來說尤其如此,?!?/p>

在這兩類國家中,人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化引發(fā)了大規(guī)模的工作崗位調(diào)整,。面臨人口老齡化問題的國家預(yù)計(jì)將涌現(xiàn)大量護(hù)理崗位,,包括護(hù)理專業(yè)人員,、社會(huì)工作者以及護(hù)理助理。與此同時(shí),,在發(fā)展中國家,,隨著勞動(dòng)年齡人口持續(xù)增長,教育領(lǐng)域的相關(guān)崗位(如中學(xué)和高等教育教師)也將迎來增長,。

利奧波德說:“教學(xué),、指導(dǎo)及領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力都是與勞動(dòng)年齡人口增長趨勢相關(guān)的技能。當(dāng)然,,這也包括學(xué)校里真正的教育工作者,。但我認(rèn)為這也包括當(dāng)前這一代勞動(dòng)力向年輕一代傳授知識(shí)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

政府和商界領(lǐng)袖對迫在眉睫的人口危機(jī)憂心忡忡已經(jīng)有一段時(shí)間了,,但他們可能僅聚焦于問題的一個(gè)維度。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)的一份新報(bào)告指出,,在未來五年內(nèi),,預(yù)計(jì)有兩大人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化將重塑全球勞動(dòng)力格局。

首先當(dāng)然是高收入國家面臨的人口老齡化問題,。報(bào)告稱,,隨著人口老齡化,這些國家約40%的雇主將進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)型,,這也改變了企業(yè)對員工的看法,。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇未來工作、薪資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長主管蒂爾·利奧波德(Till Leopold)在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)表示:“很多公司確實(shí)對勞動(dòng)力短缺感到憂慮,,它們愈發(fā)優(yōu)先考慮對現(xiàn)有員工進(jìn)行再培訓(xùn),,并將其轉(zhuǎn)崗至企業(yè)其他部門的新職位。這些公司正試圖通過內(nèi)部調(diào)配來填補(bǔ)這些空缺,,而此前情況并非如此,。”

然而,,第二大人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化則體現(xiàn)在發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體勞動(dòng)年齡人口的持續(xù)增長上,。預(yù)計(jì)到2050年,這些國家中約25%的國家將為全球提供59%的勞動(dòng)年齡人口,。包括印度,、東南亞以及撒哈拉以南非洲國家在內(nèi)的發(fā)展中國家,在未來數(shù)年間還將為全球提供近三分之二的新增勞動(dòng)力,。

或許最耐人尋味的是,,這兩種趨勢都將促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長。據(jù)該報(bào)告稱,,到2030年,,發(fā)展中國家勞動(dòng)年齡人口的持續(xù)增長將為全球勞動(dòng)力市場創(chuàng)造約910萬個(gè)新的凈就業(yè)崗位,。而高收入國家人口老齡化預(yù)計(jì)將為全球勞動(dòng)力市場創(chuàng)造380萬個(gè)新的凈就業(yè)崗位。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇未來工作,、薪資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長主管蒂爾·利奧波德告訴《財(cái)富》雜志:“人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化是推動(dòng)就業(yè)增長的第二大關(guān)鍵因素,,對于不斷增長的勞動(dòng)年齡人口來說尤其如此?!?/p>

在這兩類國家中,,人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化引發(fā)了大規(guī)模的工作崗位調(diào)整。面臨人口老齡化問題的國家預(yù)計(jì)將涌現(xiàn)大量護(hù)理崗位,,包括護(hù)理專業(yè)人員,、社會(huì)工作者以及護(hù)理助理。與此同時(shí),,在發(fā)展中國家,,隨著勞動(dòng)年齡人口持續(xù)增長,教育領(lǐng)域的相關(guān)崗位(如中學(xué)和高等教育教師)也將迎來增長,。

利奧波德說:“教學(xué),、指導(dǎo)及領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力都是與勞動(dòng)年齡人口增長趨勢相關(guān)的技能。當(dāng)然,,這也包括學(xué)校里真正的教育工作者,。但我認(rèn)為這也包括當(dāng)前這一代勞動(dòng)力向年輕一代傳授知識(shí)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

Government and business leaders have been wringing their hands about a looming demographic crisis for quite a while now, but they may only be focusing on one part of the equation. There are two major demographic shifts expected to transform the global workforce over the next five years, according to a new report from The World Economic Forum.

The first is, of course, the aging populations of high-income countries. Around 40% of employers in these countries will be transformed as their populations get older, according to the report. And that’s changing the way that companies think about their workers.

“A lot of companies that do have these concerns around the shrinking labor pool are increasingly prioritizing reskilling and transitioning current workers into new roles in other parts of the business,” Till Leopold, head of Future of Work, Wages and Economic Growth at the World Economic Forum, tells Fortune. “They’re trying to fill those gaps from within, which was not the case before.”

But the second major demographic shift is the expanding working-age population in developing economies. Around 25% of these countries are expected to provide 59% of the global working-age population by 2050. And this group, which includes India, Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan African nations, will also provide nearly two-thirds of new members of the global workforce in the years to come.

Perhaps most interesting of all, both of these trends will lead to job growth. Around 9.1 million net new jobs in the global workforce will be created by the growing working age population in developing countries by 2030, according to the report. And the aging population of higher-income nations is expected to create 3.8 million net additional jobs to the global workforce.

“Demographic shifts are the second largest driver of job growth,” Till Leopold, head of Future of Work, Wages and Economic Growth at the World Economic Forum, tells Fortune. “That is particularly true for the growing working-age population.”

These demographic shifts are also creating a great jobs reshuffling for both groups of countries. Countries with an aging population are expected to see an influx of care jobs, including nursing professionals, social workers, and care aides. Meanwhile, increasing working-age populations in developing countries are fueling growth in education-related professions, such as secondary and higher education teachers.

“Teaching, mentoring, and leadership are all skills that are associated with the growing working age population trend,” says Leopold. “Of course that includes actual teachers in schools. But I think it also includes the current generation of the workforce imparting their knowledge to the younger generations.”

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