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馬斯克稱(chēng)贊特斯拉全自動(dòng)駕駛軟件正呈現(xiàn)出“指數(shù)級(jí)改進(jìn)”

特斯拉(TESLA)首席執(zhí)行官埃隆·馬斯克(ELON MUSK)計(jì)劃今年在得克薩斯州推出全自動(dòng)駕駛軟件的完全無(wú)監(jiān)督版本,。

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圖片來(lái)源:FREDERIC J. BROWN—AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

? 特斯拉首席執(zhí)行官承諾今年將在得克薩斯州推出全自動(dòng)駕駛軟件的完全無(wú)監(jiān)督版本,但這項(xiàng)技術(shù)仍遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到所需的成熟水平,。在分享他對(duì)這一進(jìn)展的熱情之前,,有一些重要的警告。

埃隆·馬斯克曾承諾,,2020年特斯拉將推出一個(gè)由100萬(wàn)輛無(wú)人駕駛出租車(chē)組成的車(chē)隊(duì),,如今,,他或許終于要兌現(xiàn)這一諾言了。

在滿(mǎn)懷信心地登上舞臺(tái)預(yù)測(cè)一個(gè)從未實(shí)現(xiàn)的未來(lái)將近六年之后,,這位特斯拉首席執(zhí)行官稱(chēng)贊了看似接近其目標(biāo)的首個(gè)實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展,。

周一,他對(duì)司機(jī)們貢獻(xiàn)的數(shù)據(jù)大加贊賞(這些數(shù)據(jù)幫助他訓(xùn)練全自動(dòng)駕駛軟件),。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,在其最新軟件版本(13.2)中,全自動(dòng)駕駛模式下每次關(guān)鍵干預(yù)高速公路行駛里程飆升至724英里(約合1165.17千米),,而在不到半年前的12.5版本中,,這一數(shù)字僅為85英里(約合136.79千米)。

“這就是指數(shù)級(jí)改進(jìn)",,他周一發(fā)帖說(shuō),。

若無(wú)意外,特斯拉今年為車(chē)主準(zhǔn)備的最大創(chuàng)新便是推出其自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù),。在接下來(lái)的11個(gè)月里,,無(wú)監(jiān)督的全自動(dòng)駕駛功能將在特斯拉全球總部所在地得克薩斯州的道路上啟用,這一時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)遠(yuǎn)早于其專(zhuān)屬的CyberCab無(wú)人駕駛出租車(chē)推出時(shí)間,。

一旦該功能得以推出,,駕駛員將無(wú)需再關(guān)注路況;即便法律規(guī)定駕駛時(shí)仍需有人在方向盤(pán)后坐鎮(zhèn),,這也標(biāo)志著馬斯克實(shí)質(zhì)上兌現(xiàn)了其在2019年4月許下的承諾,。馬斯克將其譽(yù)為特斯拉的“ChatGPT時(shí)刻”,這也是特斯拉市值達(dá)到1.3萬(wàn)億美元——超過(guò)整個(gè)行業(yè)市值總和——的主要原因之一,。

大量警告事項(xiàng)

馬斯克的言論似乎證實(shí)提交給伊萊亞斯·馬丁內(nèi)斯(Elias Martinez)的網(wǎng)站TeslaFSDTracker.com的獨(dú)立數(shù)據(jù)與其開(kāi)發(fā)團(tuán)隊(duì)的內(nèi)部結(jié)果基本一致,,而特斯拉從未公布過(guò)這些數(shù)據(jù)。

長(zhǎng)久以來(lái),,這始終是車(chē)迷與投資者的痛點(diǎn),。我們很難判斷馬斯克的信心是否又一次過(guò)度膨脹,還是說(shuō)僅其團(tuán)隊(duì)可見(jiàn)的下一次迭代的早期測(cè)試版確實(shí)有那么大的潛力,。

委婉的說(shuō)法是,,缺乏確鑿數(shù)據(jù)是人們對(duì)這一時(shí)間表的信任度未能更高的原因之一。就像馬斯克發(fā)表的幾乎所有其他重大聲明一樣——最近的一次是他計(jì)劃削減2萬(wàn)億美元聯(lián)邦預(yù)算——這些聲明即便不是完全不切實(shí)際,,也被視為極具野心,。

對(duì)于SpaceX所取得的每一個(gè)歷史性成就,都似乎有一條與之對(duì)應(yīng)的拉斯維加斯環(huán)路,,它們與馬斯克最初的愿景之間的相似度,,就如同去年那場(chǎng)打著“查理和巧克力工廠”旗號(hào)的制毒實(shí)驗(yàn)室體驗(yàn),與深受喜愛(ài)的羅爾德·達(dá)爾兒童讀物之間的相似程度一樣微乎其微,。

因此,,對(duì)于馬斯克所宣稱(chēng)的“指數(shù)級(jí)改進(jìn)”,,仍有諸多方面需要關(guān)注。

仍遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到所需的改進(jìn)程度

首先,,高速公路駕駛的復(fù)雜程度通常遠(yuǎn)低于街道駕駛,,大多數(shù)人工智能專(zhuān)家認(rèn)為,這將是該技術(shù)率先得以應(yīng)用的交通場(chǎng)景,。TeslaFSDtracker.com網(wǎng)站的所有者馬丁內(nèi)斯表示,,該網(wǎng)站僅提供經(jīng)過(guò)調(diào)整后的城市駕駛數(shù)據(jù),全自動(dòng)駕駛模式下無(wú)關(guān)鍵干預(yù)行駛里程僅為40英里(約合64.37千米),,而此前的數(shù)據(jù)為21英里(約合33.8千米),。

其次,較早的12.5版本包含在軟件發(fā)生重大變更之前發(fā)布的版本中的數(shù)據(jù),。

直至9月底,,特斯拉才實(shí)現(xiàn)了從采用計(jì)算機(jī)語(yǔ)言編寫(xiě)的專(zhuān)用啟發(fā)式指令到完全端到端神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的切換,而這一改進(jìn)在今年早些時(shí)候已被應(yīng)用于城市駕駛之中,。一旦觀察者從12.5版本的后續(xù)開(kāi)發(fā)階段開(kāi)始追蹤,,便會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)每次脫離自動(dòng)駕駛模式的高速公路行駛里程的提升呈現(xiàn)出更為線性的趨勢(shì)。正因如此,,電動(dòng)汽車(chē)愛(ài)好者網(wǎng)站Electrek認(rèn)為馬斯克的稱(chēng)贊存在誤導(dǎo)性,。

第三,并非所有特斯拉汽車(chē)都能實(shí)現(xiàn)這一性能,,因?yàn)槿詣?dòng)駕駛技術(shù)的開(kāi)發(fā)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了分化,。最新的軟件版本僅適用于配備HW4計(jì)算機(jī)的新款車(chē)型,而根據(jù)特斯拉的新命名規(guī)則,,這種計(jì)算機(jī)有時(shí)被稱(chēng)為AI4,。

對(duì)于那些仍依賴(lài)HW3計(jì)算機(jī)車(chē)型的車(chē)主而言,他們還需等待更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間才能獲得相應(yīng)的軟件升級(jí),,這讓部分人士感覺(jué)馬斯克使得眾多忠實(shí)買(mǎi)家被技術(shù)進(jìn)步拋在了后面,。

最終,,要實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)駕駛出租車(chē)級(jí)別的能力,,所需的全自動(dòng)駕駛模式下無(wú)干預(yù)高速公路行駛里程遠(yuǎn)不止724英里。根據(jù)2023年的數(shù)據(jù),,Alphabet旗下的Waymo在其上一次報(bào)告中披露,,其無(wú)干預(yù)行駛里程已達(dá)17311英里(約合27859.35千米),而亞馬遜旗下的Zoox雖然總行駛里程相對(duì)較少,,但其無(wú)干預(yù)行駛里程也超過(guò)了Waymo的這一數(shù)字,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

? 特斯拉首席執(zhí)行官承諾今年將在得克薩斯州推出全自動(dòng)駕駛軟件的完全無(wú)監(jiān)督版本,但這項(xiàng)技術(shù)仍遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到所需的成熟水平,。在分享他對(duì)這一進(jìn)展的熱情之前,,有一些重要的警告,。

埃隆·馬斯克曾承諾,2020年特斯拉將推出一個(gè)由100萬(wàn)輛無(wú)人駕駛出租車(chē)組成的車(chē)隊(duì),,如今,,他或許終于要兌現(xiàn)這一諾言了。

在滿(mǎn)懷信心地登上舞臺(tái)預(yù)測(cè)一個(gè)從未實(shí)現(xiàn)的未來(lái)將近六年之后,,這位特斯拉首席執(zhí)行官稱(chēng)贊了看似接近其目標(biāo)的首個(gè)實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展,。

周一,他對(duì)司機(jī)們貢獻(xiàn)的數(shù)據(jù)大加贊賞(這些數(shù)據(jù)幫助他訓(xùn)練全自動(dòng)駕駛軟件),。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,在其最新軟件版本(13.2)中,全自動(dòng)駕駛模式下每次關(guān)鍵干預(yù)高速公路行駛里程飆升至724英里(約合1165.17千米),,而在不到半年前的12.5版本中,,這一數(shù)字僅為85英里(約合136.79千米)。

“這就是指數(shù)級(jí)改進(jìn)",,他周一發(fā)帖說(shuō),。

若無(wú)意外,特斯拉今年為車(chē)主準(zhǔn)備的最大創(chuàng)新便是推出其自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù),。在接下來(lái)的11個(gè)月里,,無(wú)監(jiān)督的全自動(dòng)駕駛功能將在特斯拉全球總部所在地得克薩斯州的道路上啟用,這一時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)遠(yuǎn)早于其專(zhuān)屬的CyberCab無(wú)人駕駛出租車(chē)推出時(shí)間,。

一旦該功能得以推出,,駕駛員將無(wú)需再關(guān)注路況;即便法律規(guī)定駕駛時(shí)仍需有人在方向盤(pán)后坐鎮(zhèn),,這也標(biāo)志著馬斯克實(shí)質(zhì)上兌現(xiàn)了其在2019年4月許下的承諾,。馬斯克將其譽(yù)為特斯拉的“ChatGPT時(shí)刻”,這也是特斯拉市值達(dá)到1.3萬(wàn)億美元——超過(guò)整個(gè)行業(yè)市值總和——的主要原因之一,。

大量警告事項(xiàng)

馬斯克的言論似乎證實(shí)提交給伊萊亞斯·馬丁內(nèi)斯(Elias Martinez)的網(wǎng)站TeslaFSDTracker.com的獨(dú)立數(shù)據(jù)與其開(kāi)發(fā)團(tuán)隊(duì)的內(nèi)部結(jié)果基本一致,,而特斯拉從未公布過(guò)這些數(shù)據(jù)。

長(zhǎng)久以來(lái),,這始終是車(chē)迷與投資者的痛點(diǎn),。我們很難判斷馬斯克的信心是否又一次過(guò)度膨脹,還是說(shuō)僅其團(tuán)隊(duì)可見(jiàn)的下一次迭代的早期測(cè)試版確實(shí)有那么大的潛力,。

委婉的說(shuō)法是,,缺乏確鑿數(shù)據(jù)是人們對(duì)這一時(shí)間表的信任度未能更高的原因之一。就像馬斯克發(fā)表的幾乎所有其他重大聲明一樣——最近的一次是他計(jì)劃削減2萬(wàn)億美元聯(lián)邦預(yù)算——這些聲明即便不是完全不切實(shí)際,,也被視為極具野心,。

對(duì)于SpaceX所取得的每一個(gè)歷史性成就,都似乎有一條與之對(duì)應(yīng)的拉斯維加斯環(huán)路,它們與馬斯克最初的愿景之間的相似度,,就如同去年那場(chǎng)打著“查理和巧克力工廠”旗號(hào)的制毒實(shí)驗(yàn)室體驗(yàn),,與深受喜愛(ài)的羅爾德·達(dá)爾兒童讀物之間的相似程度一樣微乎其微。

因此,,對(duì)于馬斯克所宣稱(chēng)的“指數(shù)級(jí)改進(jìn)”,,仍有諸多方面需要關(guān)注。

仍遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到所需的改進(jìn)程度

首先,,高速公路駕駛的復(fù)雜程度通常遠(yuǎn)低于街道駕駛,,大多數(shù)人工智能專(zhuān)家認(rèn)為,這將是該技術(shù)率先得以應(yīng)用的交通場(chǎng)景,。TeslaFSDtracker.com網(wǎng)站的所有者馬丁內(nèi)斯表示,,該網(wǎng)站僅提供經(jīng)過(guò)調(diào)整后的城市駕駛數(shù)據(jù),全自動(dòng)駕駛模式下無(wú)關(guān)鍵干預(yù)行駛里程僅為40英里(約合64.37千米),,而此前的數(shù)據(jù)為21英里(約合33.8千米),。

其次,較早的12.5版本包含在軟件發(fā)生重大變更之前發(fā)布的版本中的數(shù)據(jù),。

直至9月底,,特斯拉才實(shí)現(xiàn)了從采用計(jì)算機(jī)語(yǔ)言編寫(xiě)的專(zhuān)用啟發(fā)式指令到完全端到端神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的切換,而這一改進(jìn)在今年早些時(shí)候已被應(yīng)用于城市駕駛之中,。一旦觀察者從12.5版本的后續(xù)開(kāi)發(fā)階段開(kāi)始追蹤,,便會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)每次脫離自動(dòng)駕駛模式的高速公路行駛里程的提升呈現(xiàn)出更為線性的趨勢(shì)。正因如此,,電動(dòng)汽車(chē)愛(ài)好者網(wǎng)站Electrek認(rèn)為馬斯克的稱(chēng)贊存在誤導(dǎo)性,。

第三,并非所有特斯拉汽車(chē)都能實(shí)現(xiàn)這一性能,,因?yàn)槿詣?dòng)駕駛技術(shù)的開(kāi)發(fā)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了分化,。最新的軟件版本僅適用于配備HW4計(jì)算機(jī)的新款車(chē)型,而根據(jù)特斯拉的新命名規(guī)則,,這種計(jì)算機(jī)有時(shí)被稱(chēng)為AI4,。

對(duì)于那些仍依賴(lài)HW3計(jì)算機(jī)車(chē)型的車(chē)主而言,他們還需等待更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間才能獲得相應(yīng)的軟件升級(jí),,這讓部分人士感覺(jué)馬斯克使得眾多忠實(shí)買(mǎi)家被技術(shù)進(jìn)步拋在了后面,。

最終,要實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)駕駛出租車(chē)級(jí)別的能力,,所需的全自動(dòng)駕駛模式下無(wú)干預(yù)高速公路行駛里程遠(yuǎn)不止724英里,。根據(jù)2023年的數(shù)據(jù),Alphabet旗下的Waymo在其上一次報(bào)告中披露,,其無(wú)干預(yù)行駛里程已達(dá)17311英里(約合27859.35千米),而亞馬遜旗下的Zoox雖然總行駛里程相對(duì)較少,但其無(wú)干預(yù)行駛里程也超過(guò)了Waymo的這一數(shù)字,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

? The Tesla CEO has promised to launch a fully unsupervised version of his FSD self-driving software in Texas this year, but the technology is still far from the level of maturity needed. There are important caveats before sharing his enthusiasm.

Elon Musk, who once pledged a fleet of Tesla robotaxis a million strong zipping around in 2020, may finally be living up to his word.

Nearly six years since he confidently took the stage to predict a future that never came, the Tesla CEO praised what appeared to be the first substantive evidence that he could be nearing his goal.

On Monday, he praised data crowd-sourced from drivers helping him train his Full Self-Driving (FSD) software that showed the number of highway miles per critical intervention on his latest software version (13.2) soar to 724 miles, up from just 85 miles using its various v12.5 builds from no more than half a year ago.

“This is what exponential improvement looks like,” he posted on Monday.

Barring a surprise, the single biggest innovation Tesla has in store for owners this year is the launch of its autonomous driving technology. In the coming 11 months, unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) is due to hit the roads of Texas, where his carmaker’s global headquarters are located, well before his dedicated CyberCab robotaxi launches.

Once launched, drivers will no longer be required to pay any more attention to the road; even if humans are still required by law to be behind the wheel while driving, it would effectively fulfill his April 2019 promise. Musk has called it Tesla’s “ChatGPT moment,” and is one of the leading reasons why Tesla is valued at $1.3 trillion—or more than the rest of the industry put together.

Plenty of caveats

The CEO’s comment seems to confirm that independent data submitted to Elias Martinez’s TeslaFSDTracker.com broadly tracks his own dev team’s internal results, which Tesla has never released.

This has long been a sore subject among enthusiasts and investors. It’s impossible to gauge whether Musk’s confidence is once more overshooting the mark or whether early alpha builds of the next iteration that only his team sees really are that promising.

The lack of hard data is one reason trust in that timetable could be higher, to put it lightly. Like almost every other grand pronouncement issued by Musk—most recently his plan for cutting $2 trillion from the federal budget—it needs to be viewed as wildly aspirational if not utterly unrealistic.

For every historic SpaceX milestone, there’s a Vegas Loop that has as much in common with Musk’s original vision as last year’s Willy Wonka meth lab experience had with the beloved Roald Dahl children’s book.

As such, there are many caveats with regards to his claim of “exponential improvement.”

Still far from the improvement needed

For one, highway driving is typically far less complex than street driving, with most AI experts believing it will be the first traffic situation where the technology will launch. The same TeslaFSDtracker.com data adjusted to provide only city driving results reduces the miles per critical intervention to just 40 versus 21 miles previously, according to Martinez, the site’s proprietor.

Secondly, the older 12.5 versions include data from builds released prior to a fundamental change in the software.

Only at the end of September did Tesla switch from dedicated heuristic commands written in computer language to a fully end-to-end neural network, an improvment that already had been introduced for city driving much earlier in the year. Once observers only start tracking from that later point in 12.5’s continued development, the improvement in highway miles per disengagement is much more linear. As a result, EV enthusiast site Electrek called Musk’s praise misleading.

Thirdly, not all Tesla cars will achieve that performance, as FSD development has bifurcated. The latest software works only for newer vehicles equipped with its HW4 computer, sometimes called AI4 in line with Tesla’s new nomenclature.

Owners of models still relying on HW3 have to wait much longer for an improvement to their software, prompting some to feel Musk has allowed many of his loyal buyers to be left behind by the progress.

Finally it will take far more than the 724 highway miles per intervention to reach robotaxi capability. Alphabet-owned Waymo was last reported capable of driving 17,311 miles between each intervention based on 2023 figures, with Amazon’s Zoox topping that albeit with far fewer miles driven.

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