
? 盡管近期股市因市場對經(jīng)濟衰退的擔憂加劇而遭遇拋售潮,,但華爾街策略師湯姆·李(Tom Lee)仍保持樂觀,。此前他曾預測2023年和2024年股市大幅上漲,如今他表示,,未來數(shù)月股市“極有可能”出現(xiàn)大幅反彈,,并指出股市年度漲幅很大程度上只取決于10個漲幅最大的交易日。
Fundstrat Global Advisors聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人湯姆·李近期在股市預測方面表現(xiàn)出色,,他預計在經(jīng)歷一輪猛烈拋售后,,股市很快將出現(xiàn)反彈。
隨著美國總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普繼續(xù)推進其激進的關稅議程,,消費者和企業(yè)深感不安,,同時引發(fā)了對經(jīng)濟放緩的擔憂,,美國股指已抹去大選后的漲幅,。
但周三,即使ADP的私營部門就業(yè)報告顯示招聘疲軟,,李仍表示樂觀,。他對美國全國廣播公司財經(jīng)頻道(CNBC)表示,在市場情緒和動能出現(xiàn)修正之后,,許多壞消息已被計入股價當中,。
他表示:“我認為3月、4月,、5月極有可能出現(xiàn)大幅反彈,,漲幅可達10%-15%。”
他的預測頗具分量,,因為他曾精準預見股市的大幅上漲,,包括標普500指數(shù)在2023年和2024年連續(xù)兩年漲幅超過20%。
在彭博社調查的預測者中,,李對2023年的預測最為準確,。去年,他表示標準普爾500指數(shù)2024年底可能超過5500點,,隨后又將預測值上調至6000點,。該指數(shù)最終收于略低于5900點。
周三,,他表示,,鑒于市場動蕩不安,如今是買入的好時機,,并警告稱,,錯過個別大漲交易時段將會付出高昂代價。
李解釋說,,例如,,去年標普500指數(shù)漲幅最大的10個交易日合計貢獻了20個百分點,而若不計入這10天,,該指數(shù)的漲幅則僅為4%,。
他補充道:“股市年漲幅達到20%,并非全年都表現(xiàn)良好,,而是得益于那10個漲幅最大的交易日,。”
李認為,,今年漲幅最大的交易日可能即將到來,。如果經(jīng)濟增長開始放緩,或就業(yè)市場走軟,,那么“特朗普救市”或“美聯(lián)儲救市”就會啟動,,即總統(tǒng)或美聯(lián)儲將采取行動支撐經(jīng)濟。
李指出:“因此,,我認為接下來幾周內(nèi),,這將是積極的催化劑?!彼€提到,,股市往往在壞消息達到頂點之前觸底。
亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(Atlanta Fed)的GDPNow追蹤數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,目前第一季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將收縮2.4%,,而最新的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,有跡象表明聯(lián)邦裁員和關稅擔憂正在悄然蔓延。
特朗普本人堅稱,,在制定關稅政策時并未關注股市,。上周日,他未排除今年美國經(jīng)濟陷入衰退的可能性,。
從美國有線電視新聞網(wǎng)(CNN)的恐懼與貪婪指數(shù)來看,,投資者已將大量壞消息計入股價當中。該指數(shù)目前處于“極度恐懼”區(qū)間,,一些反向投資者將此視為買入信號,。
事實上,沃倫·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)曾有一句名言:“別人恐懼我貪婪,,別人貪婪我恐懼”,。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
? 盡管近期股市因市場對經(jīng)濟衰退的擔憂加劇而遭遇拋售潮,但華爾街策略師湯姆·李(Tom Lee)仍保持樂觀,。此前他曾預測2023年和2024年股市大幅上漲,,如今他表示,未來數(shù)月股市“極有可能”出現(xiàn)大幅反彈,,并指出股市年度漲幅很大程度上只取決于10個漲幅最大的交易日,。
Fundstrat Global Advisors聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人湯姆·李近期在股市預測方面表現(xiàn)出色,他預計在經(jīng)歷一輪猛烈拋售后,,股市很快將出現(xiàn)反彈,。
隨著美國總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普繼續(xù)推進其激進的關稅議程,消費者和企業(yè)深感不安,,同時引發(fā)了對經(jīng)濟放緩的擔憂,,美國股指已抹去大選后的漲幅。
但周三,,即使ADP的私營部門就業(yè)報告顯示招聘疲軟,,李仍表示樂觀。他對美國全國廣播公司財經(jīng)頻道(CNBC)表示,,在市場情緒和動能出現(xiàn)修正之后,,許多壞消息已被計入股價當中。
他表示:“我認為3月,、4月,、5月極有可能出現(xiàn)大幅反彈,,漲幅可達10%-15%,。”
他的預測頗具分量,,因為他曾精準預見股市的大幅上漲,,包括標普500指數(shù)在2023年和2024年連續(xù)兩年漲幅超過20%,。
在彭博社調查的預測者中,李對2023年的預測最為準確,。去年,,他表示標準普爾500指數(shù)2024年底可能超過5500點,隨后又將預測值上調至6000點,。該指數(shù)最終收于略低于5900點,。
周三,他表示,,鑒于市場動蕩不安,,如今是買入的好時機,并警告稱,,錯過個別大漲交易時段將會付出高昂代價,。
李解釋說,例如,,去年標普500指數(shù)漲幅最大的10個交易日合計貢獻了20個百分點,,而若不計入這10天,該指數(shù)的漲幅則僅為4%,。
他補充道:“股市年漲幅達到20%,,并非全年都表現(xiàn)良好,而是得益于那10個漲幅最大的交易日,?!?/p>
李認為,今年漲幅最大的交易日可能即將到來,。如果經(jīng)濟增長開始放緩,,或就業(yè)市場走軟,那么“特朗普救市”或“美聯(lián)儲救市”就會啟動,,即總統(tǒng)或美聯(lián)儲將采取行動支撐經(jīng)濟,。
李指出:“因此,我認為接下來幾周內(nèi),,這將是積極的催化劑,。”他還提到,,股市往往在壞消息達到頂點之前觸底,。
亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(Atlanta Fed)的GDPNow追蹤數(shù)據(jù)顯示,目前第一季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將收縮2.4%,,而最新的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,有跡象表明聯(lián)邦裁員和關稅擔憂正在悄然蔓延。
特朗普本人堅稱,,在制定關稅政策時并未關注股市,。上周日,,他未排除今年美國經(jīng)濟陷入衰退的可能性。
從美國有線電視新聞網(wǎng)(CNN)的恐懼與貪婪指數(shù)來看,,投資者已將大量壞消息計入股價當中,。該指數(shù)目前處于“極度恐懼”區(qū)間,一些反向投資者將此視為買入信號,。
事實上,,沃倫·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)曾有一句名言:“別人恐懼我貪婪,別人貪婪我恐懼”,。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
? Wall Street strategist Tom Lee remains optimistic about the stock market despite its recent selloff on mounting concerns that the economy is rolling over. After predicting the massive surges in 2023 and 2024, he said a big rebound is “very possible” in the next few months and pointed out that the bulk of yearly stock gains can come down to just 10 of the top trading days.
Fundstrat Global Advisors cofounder Tom Lee has built a track record recently of correctly predicting the stock market, and he anticipates a rebound soon after a brutal selloff.
US indexes have erased their post-election gains as President Donald Trump presses ahead with his aggressive tariff agenda, which has spooked consumers and businesses while sparking concerns the economy is slowing.
But on Wednesday, even as ADP’s private-payroll report showed weak hiring, Lee said he remains optimistic, telling CNBC that stocks have already priced in a lot of bad news after markets suffered a correction in sentiment and momentum.
“I think it’s very possible that March, April, May could actually be one of these huge rally months where we’re rallying 10-15%,” he said.
His outlook carries extra weight as he has demonstrated a knack for seeing big surges, including the S&P 500’s back-to-back gains of more than 20% in 2023 and 2024.
Among the forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, Lee’s call in 2023 turned out to be the most accurate. And last year, he said the S&P 500 could end 2024 above 5,500, then hiked his forecast to 6,000. It eventually finished at just below 5,900.
On Wednesday, he said he believes now is a time to buy with markets unsettled and warned that missing big individual trading sessions can be costly.
For example, the market’s 10 best days last year added up to 20 percentage points for the S&P 500, Lee explained. But excluding those 10 days, the index was only up 4%.
“You don’t get 20% years because it’s good through the year,” he added. “It’s just the 10 best days.”
Lee thinks one of this year’s best days could be around the corner. If growth starts to stall or the job market softens, then a “Trump put” or a “Fed put” would be in play, meaning the president or the Federal Reserve takes action to support the economy.
“So I think that’s what’s going to be the positive catalysts in the next couple of weeks,” Lee said, noting that stocks often bottom out before bad news peaks.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker shows the first quarter is currently on track for a 2.4% contraction, while the latest jobs data point to signs federal layoffs and tariff fears are creeping in.
For his part, Trump has maintained that he isn’t watching the stock market as he determines his tariff policies. And on Sunday, he declined to rule out a US recession this year.
Judging by CNN’s Fear & Greed index, investors have digested plenty of bad news. It currently points to “extreme fear,” which some contrarians see as a buy signal.
In fact, Warren Buffett famously preached that investors should “be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”