
? 在周一市場遭遇重挫之時,,貝萊德集團(tuán)(BlackRock)首席執(zhí)行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)在發(fā)布的年度信中稱,經(jīng)與眾多人士交流,,他察覺到大家對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退憂心忡忡。這些擔(dān)憂源于特朗普政府關(guān)稅政策所引發(fā)的不確定性正與日俱增,,人們難以預(yù)判其將如何沖擊美國經(jīng)濟(jì),。
全球最大資產(chǎn)管理公司的首席執(zhí)行官不斷接收到來自各方的聲音,他們無一不表達(dá)著對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的擔(dān)憂,。
貝萊德集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官拉里·芬克在周一發(fā)布的年度信中寫道:“幾乎所有客戶,、企業(yè)領(lǐng)袖——所有與我交流過的人,,都向我表達(dá)了這種擔(dān)憂。他們對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的憂慮程度,,遠(yuǎn)超近年來的任何時期,。”
芬克是在周一發(fā)表上述言論的,,當(dāng)時美股開盤便遭遇重挫,,投資者擔(dān)心即將施行的關(guān)稅政策或?qū)⒔o經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來更為嚴(yán)重的損害。主要股指全線走低,。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)下跌0.75%,,納斯達(dá)克綜合指數(shù)下跌1.82%,股票期貨因前景黯淡而呈現(xiàn)下跌態(tài)勢,。華爾街下調(diào)了經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期,,同時調(diào)高了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性。引發(fā)華爾街悲觀情緒的導(dǎo)火索是唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)關(guān)稅政策即將生效的最后期限(該政策定于4月2日生效),。
自特朗普上任以來,,其反復(fù)無常的關(guān)稅政策持續(xù)沖擊著市場秩序。由于特朗普頻繁加征關(guān)稅,,隨后又取消,,而且目標(biāo)對象既涵蓋盟友,也涉及對手,,投資者幾乎無法預(yù)判未來走勢,。
美國銀行(Bank of America)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安東尼奧·加布里埃爾(Antonio Gabriel)在周一發(fā)布的一份分析師報(bào)告中寫道:“潛在的關(guān)稅方案極為繁雜,其對市場的影響也千差萬別,?!?
加布里埃爾補(bǔ)充道,美國銀行預(yù)計(jì)特朗普將推行一系列關(guān)稅舉措,,一方面針對特定國家,,另一方面瞄準(zhǔn)個別經(jīng)濟(jì)部門。截至目前,,特朗普已在這兩方面有所行動,。上周,特朗普對汽車行業(yè)加征了高達(dá)25%的關(guān)稅,。今年早些時候,,特朗普對包括中國、加拿大和墨西哥在內(nèi)的多個國家實(shí)施了關(guān)稅政策,。
這兩方面關(guān)稅政策的出臺,,引發(fā)了人們的擔(dān)憂情緒。各界憂心這些關(guān)稅將推高消費(fèi)者物價,同時導(dǎo)致投資規(guī)模收縮,。以汽車制造業(yè)為例,,由于眾多零部件依賴進(jìn)口,汽車制造商陷入兩難困境:要么將成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者,,提高汽車售價,;要么自行承擔(dān)關(guān)稅成本,蒙受數(shù)十億美元的損失,,除此之外,,幾乎沒有其他可行的應(yīng)對之策。與此同時,,關(guān)于哪些商品將被列入針對特定國家的關(guān)稅清單,,相關(guān)方面幾乎沒有披露任何詳細(xì)信息。這使得企業(yè)難以評估這些關(guān)稅政策對自身供應(yīng)鏈造成的全面影響,。
芬克曾指出,,全年經(jīng)濟(jì)信心都在持續(xù)削弱。
芬克本月早些時候在接受美國有線電視新聞網(wǎng)(CNN)采訪時表示:“從短期來看,,整體影響表現(xiàn)為人們都在觀望,,紛紛選擇退縮。在與來自不同行業(yè)的首席執(zhí)行官交流時,,我頻繁聽到他們說,,經(jīng)濟(jì)正呈現(xiàn)出疲軟態(tài)勢?!?
然而,,在這封年度信中,芬克卻轉(zhuǎn)向了截然不同的基調(diào),。他并未提及金融界普遍存在的經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性的具體細(xì)節(jié),。相反,芬克選擇傳達(dá)積極樂觀的信息,,著重指出資本市場在其400年歷史中所展現(xiàn)出的韌性,。
芬克寫道,資本市場“是我們專門構(gòu)建的體系,,旨在解決諸如富足表象下的資源匱乏問題,,以及在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮之下潛藏的焦慮不安情緒等內(nèi)在矛盾”。
然而,,公眾對于美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心依然疲軟,。周一,高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)將美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的可能性從20%上調(diào)至35%,。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的預(yù)測更為悲觀,,認(rèn)為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的概率高達(dá)50%,。
華爾街擔(dān)心關(guān)稅會成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的絆腳石。在3月份舉行的最新一次會議上,,美聯(lián)儲將國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增長預(yù)期從2.1%下調(diào)至1.7%。在會后的講話中,,美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)稱特朗普不斷變化的政策,,已成為美聯(lián)儲預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)走向時極為關(guān)鍵的考量因素。 (財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
? 在周一市場遭遇重挫之時,,貝萊德集團(tuán)(BlackRock)首席執(zhí)行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)在發(fā)布的年度信中稱,,經(jīng)與眾多人士交流,他察覺到大家對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退憂心忡忡,。這些擔(dān)憂源于特朗普政府關(guān)稅政策所引發(fā)的不確定性正與日俱增,,人們難以預(yù)判其將如何沖擊美國經(jīng)濟(jì)。
全球最大資產(chǎn)管理公司的首席執(zhí)行官不斷接收到來自各方的聲音,,他們無一不表達(dá)著對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的擔(dān)憂,。
貝萊德集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官拉里·芬克在周一發(fā)布的年度信中寫道:“幾乎所有客戶、企業(yè)領(lǐng)袖——所有與我交流過的人,,都向我表達(dá)了這種擔(dān)憂,。他們對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的憂慮程度,遠(yuǎn)超近年來的任何時期,?!?/p>
芬克是在周一發(fā)表上述言論的,當(dāng)時美股開盤便遭遇重挫,,投資者擔(dān)心即將施行的關(guān)稅政策或?qū)⒔o經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來更為嚴(yán)重的損害,。主要股指全線走低。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)下跌0.75%,,納斯達(dá)克綜合指數(shù)下跌1.82%,,股票期貨因前景黯淡而呈現(xiàn)下跌態(tài)勢。華爾街下調(diào)了經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期,,同時調(diào)高了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性,。引發(fā)華爾街悲觀情緒的導(dǎo)火索是唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)關(guān)稅政策即將生效的最后期限(該政策定于4月2日生效)。
自特朗普上任以來,,其反復(fù)無常的關(guān)稅政策持續(xù)沖擊著市場秩序,。由于特朗普頻繁加征關(guān)稅,隨后又取消,,而且目標(biāo)對象既涵蓋盟友,,也涉及對手,投資者幾乎無法預(yù)判未來走勢,。
美國銀行(Bank of America)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安東尼奧·加布里埃爾(Antonio Gabriel)在周一發(fā)布的一份分析師報(bào)告中寫道:“潛在的關(guān)稅方案極為繁雜,,其對市場的影響也千差萬別。”
加布里埃爾補(bǔ)充道,,美國銀行預(yù)計(jì)特朗普將推行一系列關(guān)稅舉措,,一方面針對特定國家,另一方面瞄準(zhǔn)個別經(jīng)濟(jì)部門,。截至目前,,特朗普已在這兩方面有所行動。上周,,特朗普對汽車行業(yè)加征了高達(dá)25%的關(guān)稅,。今年早些時候,特朗普對包括中國,、加拿大和墨西哥在內(nèi)的多個國家實(shí)施了關(guān)稅政策,。
這兩方面關(guān)稅政策的出臺,引發(fā)了人們的擔(dān)憂情緒,。各界憂心這些關(guān)稅將推高消費(fèi)者物價,,同時導(dǎo)致投資規(guī)模收縮。以汽車制造業(yè)為例,,由于眾多零部件依賴進(jìn)口,,汽車制造商陷入兩難困境:要么將成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者,提高汽車售價,;要么自行承擔(dān)關(guān)稅成本,,蒙受數(shù)十億美元的損失,除此之外,,幾乎沒有其他可行的應(yīng)對之策,。與此同時,關(guān)于哪些商品將被列入針對特定國家的關(guān)稅清單,,相關(guān)方面幾乎沒有披露任何詳細(xì)信息,。這使得企業(yè)難以評估這些關(guān)稅政策對自身供應(yīng)鏈造成的全面影響。
芬克曾指出,,全年經(jīng)濟(jì)信心都在持續(xù)削弱,。
芬克本月早些時候在接受美國有線電視新聞網(wǎng)(CNN)采訪時表示:“從短期來看,整體影響表現(xiàn)為人們都在觀望,,紛紛選擇退縮,。在與來自不同行業(yè)的首席執(zhí)行官交流時,我頻繁聽到他們說,,經(jīng)濟(jì)正呈現(xiàn)出疲軟態(tài)勢,。”
然而,,在這封年度信中,,芬克卻轉(zhuǎn)向了截然不同的基調(diào),。他并未提及金融界普遍存在的經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性的具體細(xì)節(jié)。相反,,芬克選擇傳達(dá)積極樂觀的信息,,著重指出資本市場在其400年歷史中所展現(xiàn)出的韌性。
芬克寫道,,資本市場“是我們專門構(gòu)建的體系,,旨在解決諸如富足表象下的資源匱乏問題,以及在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮之下潛藏的焦慮不安情緒等內(nèi)在矛盾”,。
然而,公眾對于美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心依然疲軟,。周一,,高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs)將美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的可能性從20%上調(diào)至35%。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的預(yù)測更為悲觀,,認(rèn)為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的概率高達(dá)50%,。
華爾街擔(dān)心關(guān)稅會成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的絆腳石。在3月份舉行的最新一次會議上,,美聯(lián)儲將國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增長預(yù)期從2.1%下調(diào)至1.7%,。在會后的講話中,美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)稱特朗普不斷變化的政策,,已成為美聯(lián)儲預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)走向時極為關(guān)鍵的考量因素,。 (財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
? In an annual letter published Monday when markets took a beating, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said many people he spoke to were nervous about an economic downturn. Many of the fears stem from mounting uncertainty about how the Trump administration’s tariff policy will affect the economy.
Everyone keeps telling the CEO of the world’s largest asset manager how worried they are about the economy.
“I hear it from nearly every client, nearly every leader—nearly every person—I talk to,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink wrote in his annual letter on Monday. “They’re more anxious about the economy than any time in recent memory.”
Fink’s comments came on Monday when the stock market slipped as soon as it opened and investors feared impending tariffs could further hurt the economy. Major indexes fell across the board. The S&P 500 dropped 0.75%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.82%, and stock futures fell on a negative outlook. Wall Street cut its economic projections and raised the chances of a recession. The inciting factor for the doom and gloom on Wall Street was the impending deadline for President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are set to go into effect on Wednesday, April 2.
Since Trump took office, his back-and-forth tariff policies have roiled markets. Since Trump has frequently imposed tariffs, but then removed them, and targeted allies and adversaries alike, investors have little indication about what to expect.
“There is a vast array of potential tariffs on the table, with widely varying implications,” Bank of America global economist Antonio Gabriel wrote in an analyst note published Monday.
Bank of America expected Trump to impose a combination of tariffs targeting both specific countries and individual sectors of the economy, Gabriel added. So far, Trump has done both. Last week, Trump instituted a series of 25% tariffs on the automobile industry. Earlier this year, Trump targeted several countries like China, Canada, and Mexico with their own batch of tariffs.
Both sets of tariffs were met with concerns they would raise prices for consumers and cause a pullback in investment. Auto manufacturers, which import many components that are made abroad, would have little recourse but to increase costs for car buyers or lose billions by eating the costs on their own. Meanwhile, few details have been released about which goods would be included in any country-specific tariffs. This makes it hard for companies to assess their full impact on their supply chains.
Fink had pointed to eroding confidence in the economy throughout the year.
“The collective impact in the short run is that people are pausing, they’re pulling back,” Fink told CNN earlier this month. “Talking to CEOs throughout the economy, I hear that the economy is weakening as we speak.”
In this annual letter, however, Fink struck a different tone. He didn’t touch on the specifics of economic uncertainty that was rampant across the financial world. Instead, Fink opted for a hopeful message, pointing to the resiliency of capital markets over their 400-year history.
Capital markets are “the system we invented specifically to overcome contradictions like scarcity amid abundance, and anxiety amid prosperity,” Fink wrote.
But there is still a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy. On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its possibility of a recession from 20% to 35%. Deutsche Bank had an even drearier outlook with a 50/50 chance of a recession.
Wall Street fears tariffs could hamper economic growth. The Federal Reserve cut its GDP growth outlook down from 2.1% to 1.7% at its latest meeting in March. In remarks following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cited Trump’s changing policies as a critical factor in the central bank’s forecast of where the economy was headed.