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關(guān)稅亂局中,,黃金價格飆升

Jeff John Roberts
2025-04-14

在美股暴跌,、全球市場對美國國債失去信心的一周里,可能有更多人加入了炒黃金的行列,。

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圖片來源:Christopher Furlong—Getty Images

在經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰時期,,黃金總能保值——這是被稱作“炒金者”的投資者群體的共識。在美股暴跌,、全球市場對美國國債失去信心的一周里,,可能有更多人加入了炒黃金的行列。但黃金作為終極避險資產(chǎn)的普遍認(rèn)知是否準(zhǔn)確,?在當(dāng)前金融動蕩中,,它的價值是否依舊堅挺?簡單回答是:確實如此,。

當(dāng)特朗普通過實施高額關(guān)稅攪動全球經(jīng)濟(jì)時,,黃金價格的走勢印證了其強(qiáng)大的抗跌能力。3月15日,,金價首次突破每盎司3,000美元大關(guān)后持續(xù)攀升,。不過任何考慮購入黃金的人都應(yīng)該明白:這種貴金屬在危機(jī)中的具體表現(xiàn)如何?如何購買黃金,,以及為何像所有投資一樣,,黃金也存在固有缺陷。

關(guān)稅亂局中金價飆升

本月初,,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)暴跌10.5%導(dǎo)致約6.6萬億美元市值蒸發(fā)之際,,黃金價格也出現(xiàn)下跌。這看似出人意料,,甚至讓人質(zhì)疑黃金的避險屬性,。但表象具有欺騙性:這次下跌并非投資者對黃金失去信心,而是源于交易員為滿足其他頭寸的保證金要求而緊急拋售各類資產(chǎn)引發(fā)的暫時波動,。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)大宗商品分析師莉娜·托馬斯表示:“簡而言之,,黃金的避險地位并未被削弱。保證金驅(qū)動的平倉結(jié)束后,,黃金需求將大幅攀升,,金價很可能重拾升勢?!边@種規(guī)律在下圖中得到完美體現(xiàn)——該圖表對比了關(guān)稅危機(jī)期間標(biāo)普500指數(shù)與黃金的表現(xiàn):

托馬斯補(bǔ)充說,,這種波動模式具有典型性,。回顧2020年3月新冠疫情引發(fā)的市場恐慌,,黃金在最初下跌5%后迅速反彈,。貴金屬交易商贊納金屬公司(Zaner Metals LLC)副總裁彼得·格蘭特持類似觀點。他指出,,即使在就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)不佳等情形引發(fā)的較小規(guī)模市場動蕩中,,黃金同樣會先跌后漲。

黃金在危機(jī)當(dāng)中作為避險資產(chǎn)的聲譽源遠(yuǎn)流長,,這既源于黃金在世界各地的吸引力——從美國,、印度到中國,,黃金都備受推崇,,另外一個原因則是其供應(yīng)有限。正如摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)近期報告所述:“人類歷史開采的黃金總量約20萬噸,,僅夠鋪滿一個足球場至一米深,,且大部分仍存于世?!?/p>

近年來,,黃金的吸引力與日俱增。金價從每盎司1,000美元升至2,000美元用了12年(2020年達(dá)成),,而突破3,000美元僅用了五年,。摩根大通在報告中連續(xù)第三年將黃金列為首選看漲資產(chǎn),并設(shè)問:“金價4,000美元是否指日可待,?”

雖然最近的市場動蕩導(dǎo)致金價波動,,但地緣政治因素也在推高金價。特別是各國央行正以前所未有的速度增持黃金,,以降低美元在外匯儲備中的占比,。面對特朗普總統(tǒng)發(fā)起的關(guān)稅戰(zhàn),加之全球投資者開始質(zhì)疑美國國債是否仍屬零風(fēng)險資產(chǎn),,在可預(yù)見的未來,,黃金熱必將持續(xù)。

持有黃金的成本考量

黃金因其稀缺性,、實體質(zhì)感和和廣泛的市場認(rèn)可度而備受追捧,,但它存在一個致命缺陷:零收益。與多數(shù)會產(chǎn)生股息或其他回報的投資不同,,持有黃金不僅不產(chǎn)生收益,,還需支付額外成本。

對真正的“炒金者”而言,,零收益無關(guān)緊要,,他們看重的是安全保障和長期升值潛力,。但對普通投資者來說,將大量財富配置于不產(chǎn)生收益的資產(chǎn)需三思,。不過少量購買黃金對大多數(shù)人而言仍是明智之選,,既能利用黃金的相對穩(wěn)定性,也可實現(xiàn)投資組合多元化的目標(biāo),。

購買黃金的最佳途徑是什么,?投資黃金的方式主要取決于個人偏好:如投資者重視低成本和便捷性,還是更青睞持有實物金屬的安全感和愉悅感,。若屬前者,,最佳選擇是通過SPDR Gold Shares(代碼GLD)或iShares Gold Trust(代碼IAU)等黃金ETF進(jìn)行投資。

購買黃金ETF中的份額,,就像通過在線券商進(jìn)行股票交易一樣簡單,。雖然需要向ETF管理者支付費用(GLD為0.4%,IAU為0.25%),,但這筆費用遠(yuǎn)低于實物黃金的持有成本,。

若選擇實物黃金,需額外支付鑄造加工費,。據(jù)金屬交易商格蘭特介紹,,根據(jù)產(chǎn)品類型(金幣比金條溢價更高)和購買數(shù)量,投資者支付的高于現(xiàn)貨價格的溢價通常在2%-5%之間波動,。精打細(xì)算者還可考慮好市多(Costco),,該零售商銷售黃金等貴金屬,加價幅度約2%,。

持有實物黃金還涉及更多隱性成本:安全運輸費用,、保險箱租賃或防盜設(shè)施支出等。

單純從成本角度考量,,黃金ETF更具優(yōu)勢,。但若真正擔(dān)憂經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰(或單純喜愛實物黃金),持有實體金屬仍是首選,。正如格蘭特所言:“實物黃金是唯一不屬于他人負(fù)債的黃金形式,。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

在經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰時期,,黃金總能保值——這是被稱作“炒金者”的投資者群體的共識,。在美股暴跌、全球市場對美國國債失去信心的一周里,,可能有更多人加入了炒黃金的行列,。但黃金作為終極避險資產(chǎn)的普遍認(rèn)知是否準(zhǔn)確?在當(dāng)前金融動蕩中,,它的價值是否依舊堅挺,?簡單回答是:確實如此,。

當(dāng)特朗普通過實施高額關(guān)稅攪動全球經(jīng)濟(jì)時,黃金價格的走勢印證了其強(qiáng)大的抗跌能力,。3月15日,,金價首次突破每盎司3,000美元大關(guān)后持續(xù)攀升。不過任何考慮購入黃金的人都應(yīng)該明白:這種貴金屬在危機(jī)中的具體表現(xiàn)如何,?如何購買黃金,,以及為何像所有投資一樣,黃金也存在固有缺陷,。

關(guān)稅亂局中金價飆升

本月初,,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)暴跌10.5%導(dǎo)致約6.6萬億美元市值蒸發(fā)之際,黃金價格也出現(xiàn)下跌,。這看似出人意料,,甚至讓人質(zhì)疑黃金的避險屬性。但表象具有欺騙性:這次下跌并非投資者對黃金失去信心,,而是源于交易員為滿足其他頭寸的保證金要求而緊急拋售各類資產(chǎn)引發(fā)的暫時波動,。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)大宗商品分析師莉娜·托馬斯表示:“簡而言之,,黃金的避險地位并未被削弱,。保證金驅(qū)動的平倉結(jié)束后,黃金需求將大幅攀升,,金價很可能重拾升勢,。”這種規(guī)律在下圖中得到完美體現(xiàn)——該圖表對比了關(guān)稅危機(jī)期間標(biāo)普500指數(shù)與黃金的表現(xiàn):

托馬斯補(bǔ)充說,,這種波動模式具有典型性,。回顧2020年3月新冠疫情引發(fā)的市場恐慌,,黃金在最初下跌5%后迅速反彈,。貴金屬交易商贊納金屬公司(Zaner Metals LLC)副總裁彼得·格蘭特持類似觀點。他指出,,即使在就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)不佳等情形引發(fā)的較小規(guī)模市場動蕩中,,黃金同樣會先跌后漲。

黃金在危機(jī)當(dāng)中作為避險資產(chǎn)的聲譽源遠(yuǎn)流長,,這既源于黃金在世界各地的吸引力——從美國,、印度到中國,黃金都備受推崇,,另外一個原因則是其供應(yīng)有限,。正如摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)近期報告所述:“人類歷史開采的黃金總量約20萬噸,僅夠鋪滿一個足球場至一米深,,且大部分仍存于世,?!?/p>

近年來,黃金的吸引力與日俱增,。金價從每盎司1,000美元升至2,000美元用了12年(2020年達(dá)成),,而突破3,000美元僅用了五年。摩根大通在報告中連續(xù)第三年將黃金列為首選看漲資產(chǎn),,并設(shè)問:“金價4,000美元是否指日可待,?”

雖然最近的市場動蕩導(dǎo)致金價波動,但地緣政治因素也在推高金價,。特別是各國央行正以前所未有的速度增持黃金,,以降低美元在外匯儲備中的占比。面對特朗普總統(tǒng)發(fā)起的關(guān)稅戰(zhàn),,加之全球投資者開始質(zhì)疑美國國債是否仍屬零風(fēng)險資產(chǎn),,在可預(yù)見的未來,黃金熱必將持續(xù),。

持有黃金的成本考量

黃金因其稀缺性,、實體質(zhì)感和和廣泛的市場認(rèn)可度而備受追捧,但它存在一個致命缺陷:零收益,。與多數(shù)會產(chǎn)生股息或其他回報的投資不同,,持有黃金不僅不產(chǎn)生收益,還需支付額外成本,。

對真正的“炒金者”而言,,零收益無關(guān)緊要,他們看重的是安全保障和長期升值潛力,。但對普通投資者來說,,將大量財富配置于不產(chǎn)生收益的資產(chǎn)需三思。不過少量購買黃金對大多數(shù)人而言仍是明智之選,,既能利用黃金的相對穩(wěn)定性,,也可實現(xiàn)投資組合多元化的目標(biāo)。

購買黃金的最佳途徑是什么,?投資黃金的方式主要取決于個人偏好:如投資者重視低成本和便捷性,,還是更青睞持有實物金屬的安全感和愉悅感。若屬前者,,最佳選擇是通過SPDR Gold Shares(代碼GLD)或iShares Gold Trust(代碼IAU)等黃金ETF進(jìn)行投資,。

購買黃金ETF中的份額,就像通過在線券商進(jìn)行股票交易一樣簡單,。雖然需要向ETF管理者支付費用(GLD為0.4%,,IAU為0.25%),但這筆費用遠(yuǎn)低于實物黃金的持有成本。

若選擇實物黃金,,需額外支付鑄造加工費,。據(jù)金屬交易商格蘭特介紹,根據(jù)產(chǎn)品類型(金幣比金條溢價更高)和購買數(shù)量,,投資者支付的高于現(xiàn)貨價格的溢價通常在2%-5%之間波動,。精打細(xì)算者還可考慮好市多(Costco),該零售商銷售黃金等貴金屬,,加價幅度約2%,。

持有實物黃金還涉及更多隱性成本:安全運輸費用、保險箱租賃或防盜設(shè)施支出等,。

單純從成本角度考量,,黃金ETF更具優(yōu)勢。但若真正擔(dān)憂經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰(或單純喜愛實物黃金),,持有實體金屬仍是首選,。正如格蘭特所言:“實物黃金是唯一不屬于他人負(fù)債的黃金形式?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

In times of economic collapse, you can count on gold to keep its value. That’s the view of investors known as goldbugs, and during a week when stocks have collapsed and global markets are losing faith in U.S. Treasury bills, their ranks are likely to grow. But is the popular notion of gold as the ultimate safe haven actually true, and is its value holding up during the current financial turmoil? The short answer is: Yes and yes.

Indeed, a look at recent prices suggests gold has held up better than ever as President Trump has whipsawed the global economy by imposing sky-high tariffs. It crossed the $3,000-per-ounce mark for the first time on March 15, and has climbed even higher since. Anyone considering buying some, though, should understand how exactly gold performs during a crisis, how you can go about acquiring it, and why—as with any investment—there are certain drawbacks that go with it.

Gold surges amid tariff chaos

When the S&P 500 fell 10.5% early this month, wiping out around $6.6 trillion in market value, the price of gold fell, too. That might come as a surprise and, for some, would call into question gold’s reputation as a safe haven. But initial appearances are deceiving: The drop didn’t reflect investors losing faith in gold, but rather a temporary blip that saw traders frantically selling all kinds of assets to cover margin calls on other positions.

“Short answer is no, gold’s safe-haven status has not weakened,” said Lina Thomas, a commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs. “We will likely see a rise in gold prices once the margin-driven liquidation is completed, after which we expect to see a sharp increase in gold demand.” Indeed, exactly that pattern is reflected in the chart below, comparing the performance of the S&P 500 and gold during the tariff crisis:

Thomas added that this is a typical pattern, noting that during past extreme market events such as the COVID panic in March of 2020, gold dropped as much as 5% before quickly rebounding. Peter Grant, a vice president at precious metals dealer Zaner Metals LLC, expressed a similar sentiment, noting that this pattern of gold dipping then shooting up also occurs during more minor stock market disruptions, such as in reaction to a bad jobs report.

Gold’s reputation as a safe haven during a crisis is long-standing. It derives in part from the metal’s universal appeal—it is popular in the U.S., India, China, and everywhere else—as well as from its limited supply. As J.P. Morgan noted in a recent report: “Specifically, about 200,000 tonnes of gold have been mined throughout human history, enough to cover a soccer field to a depth of just one meter. Most of it remains with us today.”

In recent years, gold’s appeal appears to have grown. While it took 12 years for gold’s price to increase from $1,000 to $2,000 an ounce (a mark it reached in 2020), it took only another five years for it to break the $3,000 barrier. In its report, J.P. Morgan named gold as a top bullish pick for the third year in a row, and asked, “Is $4,000 in the cards?”

While the latest market turmoil has driven gold’s recent upswing, the price increase is also being driven by geopolitical factors. Specifically, central banks around the world have been buying gold at an unprecedented clip as part of an effort to reduce the share of U.S. dollars in their reserves. In light of President Trump’s tariff war, and as global investors begin to question whether Treasury bills still qualify as a virtually risk-free asset, the embrace of gold is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Buying gold—and the downside of holding it

Gold is sought after because of its scarcity, physical appeal, and popularity. But there is one thing gold does not offer: yield. Unlike most investments, which pay a dividend or other sort of reward for holding them, gold does not generate income; indeed, it will cost you a premium to hold it.

For true goldbugs, this lack of yield is not a big concern, since they value the metal for its security and believe the price will only go up in the long term. Less committed investors, though, may want to think twice about putting a sizable portion of their wealth in an asset that doesn’t produce income. Buying a small amount, though, is likely a wise choice for most people, both owing to gold’s relative stability and in the interest of the broader goal of a diverse portfolio.

So what is the best way to go about buying it? This is primarily a personal choice on whether you favor low costs and convenience, or else the security and pleasure of holding physical metal. If you prefer the former, the best option is to purchase gold via an ETF like SPDR Gold Shares (ticker GLD) or iShares Gold Trust (ticker IAU).

Buying shares in a gold ETF is as simple as placing an order through your online broker. While you still pay a fee to the ETF manager, it is a modest one: GLD comes with a fee of 0.4%, while IAU charges 0.25%. This is not the case with physical gold.

If you prefer to hold your gold in your hand, you will have to pay extra to take account of the minting and fabrication cost. According to Grant, the metals dealer, the premium you will pay above the spot market price will vary depending on what you buy—a Gold Eagle coin will cost you more than a simple bar—and on the quantity you order, but says it can range around 2% to 5%. Bargain hunters may also consider Costco, which sells gold and other precious metals and reportedly charges a markup of around 2%.

Just holding gold involves costs of its own: You’ll pay a fee to have the gold safely shipped to your house, or anywhere else that’s secure, and you’ll likely need to pay for something safe- or vault-like to protect it from theft.

Based on cost alone, buying gold as an ETF makes more sense. But if you are truly worried about economic collapse (or simply like holding physical gold), then buying it in metal form may be your best option. As Grant notes, “Physical gold is the only form of gold that’s not someone else’s liability.”

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