特朗普?qǐng)?zhí)政百日之際，民調(diào)支持率持續(xù)下滑
Mario Parker,，彭博社
2025-04-29
在唐納德·特朗普即將迎來第二任期頗具象征意義的執(zhí)政百日節(jié)點(diǎn)之際,，選民對(duì)其經(jīng)濟(jì)治理的不滿情緒持續(xù)發(fā)酵，致使他的支持率走低,，進(jìn)而加劇了國(guó)會(huì)共和黨人推動(dòng)其稅收計(jì)劃通過的壓力,。
近幾日，美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司（NBC）,、美國(guó)有線電視新聞網(wǎng)（CNN）,、《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》/錫耶納學(xué)院、美國(guó)廣播公司新聞?lì)l道（ABC News）以及?？怂剐侣?lì)l道（Fox News）等機(jī)構(gòu)開展的一系列民意調(diào)查,，均指向同一主題：選民判定特朗普未能踐行競(jìng)選期間許下的強(qiáng)化經(jīng)濟(jì)這一核心承諾,?？偨y(tǒng)在4月初倉(cāng)促推出的關(guān)稅措施令全球市場(chǎng)陷入震蕩。
美國(guó)有線電視新聞網(wǎng)上周日公布的民意調(diào)查顯示,，僅39%的美國(guó)人認(rèn)可特朗普對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的管理方式,，這一數(shù)據(jù)滑落至其兩屆總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)的最低水平。美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司新聞?lì)l道（NBC News）的民意調(diào)查顯示,，特朗普推行的關(guān)稅措施極不受歡迎,，只有39%的受訪者贊同其關(guān)稅政策。
特朗普憑借經(jīng)濟(jì)與移民兩大議題在去年11月的大選中,，一舉拿下所有搖擺州,，并贏得普選票，大獲全勝,。
為提振經(jīng)濟(jì),，他推出兩項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵舉措：其一，推行自認(rèn)為能推動(dòng)美國(guó)制造業(yè)復(fù)興的關(guān)稅政策,；其二,，延續(xù)2017年推出的稅收計(jì)劃,，并新增多項(xiàng)激勵(lì)條款，諸如對(duì)小費(fèi)收入與加班費(fèi)實(shí)施免稅,，同時(shí)允許購(gòu)車者抵扣貸款利息,。
共和黨旨在通過無(wú)需民主黨投票的立法程序推動(dòng)稅收法案落地，這就要求特朗普以及參眾兩院的共和黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層在選民不滿情緒持續(xù)發(fā)酵的情況下,，確保黨內(nèi)議員團(tuán)結(jié)一致,。尤為關(guān)鍵的是，2026年中期選舉的籌備工作即將拉開帷幕,。
資深共和黨策略師克里斯·威爾遜（Chris Wilson）表示：“就其對(duì)選舉的直接影響而言,，答案是否定的——特朗普在邊緣議題上態(tài)度有所緩和，并不會(huì)威脅到他在黨內(nèi)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位或聲望,。然而,，關(guān)鍵在于，這為共和黨后續(xù)的立法推進(jìn)與中期選舉戰(zhàn)略定下了整體基調(diào),?！?/p>
根據(jù)彭博社對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的最新調(diào)查，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)2025年和2026年的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)率分別為1.4%和1.5%,，而在上月的調(diào)查中,，這兩個(gè)數(shù)字分別為2%和1.9%。中位數(shù)受訪者如今認(rèn)為未來12個(gè)月內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退概率為45%,，高于3月份的30%,。
根據(jù)共和黨策略師的說法，執(zhí)政黨通常會(huì)在中期選舉中失去國(guó)會(huì)席位,。一旦經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退,，幾乎可以斷言，共和黨會(huì)在2026年中期選舉中失利,，這極有可能致使國(guó)會(huì)控制權(quán)再度落入民主黨手中,，而彼時(shí)特朗普尚處于第二任期的后半階段。
這或許也能促使共和黨人暫時(shí)擱置在支出和成本問題上的分歧,，齊心協(xié)力推動(dòng)稅收法案通過,。然而，特朗普持續(xù)下滑的民調(diào)支持率,，可能會(huì)成為他實(shí)現(xiàn)這項(xiàng)所謂“美麗大法案”全部目標(biāo)的阻礙,。國(guó)會(huì)將于周一結(jié)束休會(huì)。
在關(guān)稅措施最初引發(fā)市場(chǎng)震蕩后,，特朗普試圖通過暫停征收關(guān)稅90天來穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng),，并表示正努力與受影響國(guó)家達(dá)成單獨(dú)協(xié)議。他及高級(jí)助手指出,，與其他國(guó)家達(dá)成貿(mào)易協(xié)定是進(jìn)一步緩解市場(chǎng)緊張局勢(shì),、安撫選民的有效途徑,。
在福克斯新聞?lì)l道民意調(diào)查顯示特朗普在經(jīng)濟(jì)問題上的支持率為38%,，在通貨膨脹問題上的支持率為33%之后,，總統(tǒng)4月24日在“真相社交”（Truth Social）發(fā)帖予以抨擊。
特朗普發(fā)帖稱：“魯伯特·默多克（Rupert Murdoch）多年來一直向我表示,，他要解雇?？怂剐侣勀莻€(gè)對(duì)我充滿敵意、炮制虛假民調(diào)的專家,。然而,，承諾始終未能兌現(xiàn)。這個(gè)‘民調(diào)專家’多年來對(duì)我以及‘讓美國(guó)再次偉大’（MAGA）運(yùn)動(dòng)的判斷屢屢失誤,?！?/p>
在多數(shù)民意調(diào)查中，特朗普在移民問題上的支持率是最高的,。
據(jù)特朗普身邊人士透露,，即將開展的公開活動(dòng)有望助力特朗普重新拉近與選民的距離，從支持者處獲取動(dòng)力,，并推廣其經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃,。特朗普將于周二在密歇根州舉辦集會(huì)，以此紀(jì)念執(zhí)政百日,，此外,，他還計(jì)劃于5月1日在阿拉巴馬大學(xué)發(fā)表畢業(yè)典禮演講。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者：中慧言-王芳
在唐納德·特朗普即將迎來第二任期頗具象征意義的執(zhí)政百日節(jié)點(diǎn)之際,，選民對(duì)其經(jīng)濟(jì)治理的不滿情緒持續(xù)發(fā)酵,，致使他的支持率走低，進(jìn)而加劇了國(guó)會(huì)共和黨人推動(dòng)其稅收計(jì)劃通過的壓力,。
近幾日,，美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司（NBC）,、美國(guó)有線電視新聞網(wǎng)（CNN）,、《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》/錫耶納學(xué)院、美國(guó)廣播公司新聞?lì)l道（ABC News）以及?？怂剐侣?lì)l道（Fox News）等機(jī)構(gòu)開展的一系列民意調(diào)查,，均指向同一主題：選民判定特朗普未能踐行競(jìng)選期間許下的強(qiáng)化經(jīng)濟(jì)這一核心承諾?？偨y(tǒng)在4月初倉(cāng)促推出的關(guān)稅措施令全球市場(chǎng)陷入震蕩,。
美國(guó)有線電視新聞網(wǎng)上周日公布的民意調(diào)查顯示，僅39%的美國(guó)人認(rèn)可特朗普對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的管理方式,，這一數(shù)據(jù)滑落至其兩屆總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)的最低水平,。美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司新聞?lì)l道（NBC News）的民意調(diào)查顯示,，特朗普推行的關(guān)稅措施極不受歡迎，只有39%的受訪者贊同其關(guān)稅政策,。
特朗普憑借經(jīng)濟(jì)與移民兩大議題在去年11月的大選中,，一舉拿下所有搖擺州，并贏得普選票,，大獲全勝,。
為提振經(jīng)濟(jì)，他推出兩項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵舉措：其一,，推行自認(rèn)為能推動(dòng)美國(guó)制造業(yè)復(fù)興的關(guān)稅政策,；其二，延續(xù)2017年推出的稅收計(jì)劃,，并新增多項(xiàng)激勵(lì)條款,，諸如對(duì)小費(fèi)收入與加班費(fèi)實(shí)施免稅，同時(shí)允許購(gòu)車者抵扣貸款利息,。
共和黨旨在通過無(wú)需民主黨投票的立法程序推動(dòng)稅收法案落地,，這就要求特朗普以及參眾兩院的共和黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層在選民不滿情緒持續(xù)發(fā)酵的情況下，確保黨內(nèi)議員團(tuán)結(jié)一致,。尤為關(guān)鍵的是,，2026年中期選舉的籌備工作即將拉開帷幕。
資深共和黨策略師克里斯·威爾遜（Chris Wilson）表示：“就其對(duì)選舉的直接影響而言,，答案是否定的——特朗普在邊緣議題上態(tài)度有所緩和,，并不會(huì)威脅到他在黨內(nèi)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位或聲望。然而,，關(guān)鍵在于,，這為共和黨后續(xù)的立法推進(jìn)與中期選舉戰(zhàn)略定下了整體基調(diào)?！?/p>
根據(jù)彭博社對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的最新調(diào)查,，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)2025年和2026年的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)率分別為1.4%和1.5%，而在上月的調(diào)查中,，這兩個(gè)數(shù)字分別為2%和1.9%,。中位數(shù)受訪者如今認(rèn)為未來12個(gè)月內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退概率為45%，高于3月份的30%,。
根據(jù)共和黨策略師的說法,，執(zhí)政黨通常會(huì)在中期選舉中失去國(guó)會(huì)席位。一旦經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退,，幾乎可以斷言,，共和黨會(huì)在2026年中期選舉中失利，這極有可能致使國(guó)會(huì)控制權(quán)再度落入民主黨手中,，而彼時(shí)特朗普尚處于第二任期的后半階段,。
這或許也能促使共和黨人暫時(shí)擱置在支出和成本問題上的分歧,，齊心協(xié)力推動(dòng)稅收法案通過。然而,，特朗普持續(xù)下滑的民調(diào)支持率,，可能會(huì)成為他實(shí)現(xiàn)這項(xiàng)所謂“美麗大法案”全部目標(biāo)的阻礙。國(guó)會(huì)將于周一結(jié)束休會(huì),。
在關(guān)稅措施最初引發(fā)市場(chǎng)震蕩后,，特朗普試圖通過暫停征收關(guān)稅90天來穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng)，并表示正努力與受影響國(guó)家達(dá)成單獨(dú)協(xié)議,。他及高級(jí)助手指出,，與其他國(guó)家達(dá)成貿(mào)易協(xié)定是進(jìn)一步緩解市場(chǎng)緊張局勢(shì)、安撫選民的有效途徑,。
在?？怂剐侣?lì)l道民意調(diào)查顯示特朗普在經(jīng)濟(jì)問題上的支持率為38%，在通貨膨脹問題上的支持率為33%之后,，總統(tǒng)4月24日在“真相社交”（Truth Social）發(fā)帖予以抨擊,。
特朗普發(fā)帖稱：“魯伯特·默多克（Rupert Murdoch）多年來一直向我表示，他要解雇?？怂剐侣勀莻€(gè)對(duì)我充滿敵意,、炮制虛假民調(diào)的專家。然而,，承諾始終未能兌現(xiàn),。這個(gè)‘民調(diào)專家’多年來對(duì)我以及‘讓美國(guó)再次偉大’（MAGA）運(yùn)動(dòng)的判斷屢屢失誤?！?/p>
在多數(shù)民意調(diào)查中,，特朗普在移民問題上的支持率是最高的。
據(jù)特朗普身邊人士透露,，即將開展的公開活動(dòng)有望助力特朗普重新拉近與選民的距離,，從支持者處獲取動(dòng)力，并推廣其經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃,。特朗普將于周二在密歇根州舉辦集會(huì),，以此紀(jì)念執(zhí)政百日，此外,，他還計(jì)劃于5月1日在阿拉巴馬大學(xué)發(fā)表畢業(yè)典禮演講,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者：中慧言-王芳
Voter discontent with President Donald Trump’s economic stewardship is sinking his popularity as he approaches the symbolic 100-day mark of his second term, ratcheting up pressure on congressional Republicans to pass his tax plan.
A flurry of polls in recent days from NBC, CNN, New York Times/Siena, ABC News and Fox News, among others, each reveal the same theme: Voters perceive Trump to be falling short on his core campaign promise to strengthen the economy. The president’s helter-skelter rollout of tariffs in early April sent global markets into shock.
A CNN poll released Sunday showed that just 39% of Americans approve of how Trump has steered the economy, the lowest of his two terms in the White House. An NBC News poll showed tariffs were also deeply unpopular, with just 39% of respondents agreeing with Trump’s tariffs rollout.
Trump rode the twin issues of the economy and immigration to his November election victory, sweeping each of the swing states and winning the popular vote.
He cast his elixir for improving the economy as two-pronged, one being the tariffs that he wagers will spur a US manufacturing renaissance and the other being the extension of his 2017 tax plan, but with added incentives, like no taxes on tipped wages or overtime and the ability for car buyers to deduct interest on the loans.
Republicans aim to pass the tax package through a process that wouldn’t require any Democratic votes, meaning that Trump along with House and Senate leadership has to keep the GOP members in lockstep in the face of voter angst. Crucially, posturing for the 2026 midterm elections will soon take hold.
“In terms of immediate electoral impact, no – Trump’s softening at the margins doesn’t threaten his leadership or standing within the party,” said Chris Wilson, a longtime Republican strategist. “Where it matters is in setting the broader tone for the GOP’s legislative and midterm posture.”
The US economy is set to expand 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, according to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists, compared with 2% and 1.9% in last month’s survey. The median respondent now sees a 45% chance of a downturn in the next 12 months, up from 30% in March.
The party in power typically loses congressional seats during midterm elections and a recession would all but guarantee Republican losses in 2026 that could transfer control back to Democrats as Trump serves out the second half of his term, according to Republican strategists.
That could also help keep Republicans united to pass the tax bill even as some factions disagree over spending and cost. Trump’s eroding poll numbers, though, could make it challenging for him to get everything that he wants in what he’s dubbed the “big beautiful bill.” Congress returns from recess on Monday.
Trump has sought to calm markets after the initial shock of his tariffs by pausing them for 90 days while he says he is trying to reach individual deals with affected countries. He and top aides point to the prospect of reaching trade accords with other nations as a way to further ease market tensions and reassure voters.
The president lashed out in an April 24 Truth Social post after Fox News’ polls showed him with a 38% approval rate on the economy and 33% on inflation.
“Rupert Murdoch has told me for years that he is going to get rid of his Fox News, Trump Hating, Fake Pollster, but he has never done so. This ‘pollster’ has gotten me, and MAGA, wrong for years,” Trump wrote.
Trump’s strongest polling issue is on immigration in most polls.
Upcoming public appearances should help Trump reconnect with voters, gain energy from his base and sell his economic plan, according to people in Trump’s orbit. Trump is set to hold a rally in Michigan on Tuesday to mark the 100-day milestone and he’s scheduled to deliver the commencement address at the University of Alabama on May 1.
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