京東與美團的外賣業(yè)務之爭導致兩家公司市值蒸發(fā)700億美元
Charlotte Yang，彭博社
2025-04-29
當全世界大部分人都在密切關(guān)注激烈的國際貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)時，中國兩家互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭正在本土市場展開廝殺,，給彼此造成巨大傷害,。
京東集團（JD.com）發(fā)起了一場代價高昂的爭奪戰(zhàn)，試圖從外賣行業(yè)龍頭美團（Meituan）手中搶奪市場份額,，而后者則在不斷侵蝕前者在電商領(lǐng)域的大本營,。兩家公司在香港上市的股價自3月高點以來均下跌約30%，合計市值蒸發(fā)約700億美元,。
投資者正準備迎接一場曠日持久的斗爭,，這場較量將沖擊雙方的盈利水平。分析師已下調(diào)兩家公司的股票目標價,，期權(quán)市場的防御性頭寸也在增加,。
瑞士盈豐資產(chǎn)管理（香港）有限公司（EFG Asset Management HK Ltd.）的基金經(jīng)理黛西·李表示：“短期內(nèi)兩家公司的情況都將更加惡化，目前尚不清楚這場戰(zhàn)役將持續(xù)多久,?！彼a充說,，中國外賣市場的白熱化競爭將損害行業(yè)盈利能力。
盡管唐納德·特朗普的關(guān)稅政策削弱了中國科技股近期的反彈動能,，但這場本土競爭所造成的影響依舊備受關(guān)注,。美團和京東名列恒生科技指數(shù)今年表現(xiàn)最差的八只成分股，而2024年兩家公司的表現(xiàn)還處于指數(shù)排名的上半?yún)^(qū),。
這種轉(zhuǎn)變源于京東今年2月執(zhí)行了燒錢策略,，正式推出“京東秒送”（JD Takeaway）外賣平臺?？偛课挥诒本┑木〇|宣布為消費者提供超14億美元的折扣優(yōu)惠,，為部分商家免除傭金，并計劃招聘10萬名全職配送騎手,。
摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）估算，京東已占據(jù)中國外賣市場約5%的份額,。此前外賣市場基本由美團（約占75%）和阿里巴巴集團（Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.）旗下的餓了么（Ele.me）（約占25%）瓜分,。該經(jīng)紀商估計，以當前規(guī)模計算,，京東秒送可能產(chǎn)生高達180億元人民幣（合25億美元）的年化虧損,，將抹去母公司2025年36%的經(jīng)營利潤。
分析師艾利克斯·姚在上周二的報告中寫道：“鑒于對集團損益表的財務影響,，我們認為這不是一項可持續(xù)的戰(zhàn)略,。通過深度補貼的增長戰(zhàn)略來獲取可觀市場份額，對新進入者而言成本之高令人卻步,?！?/p>
美團曾成功抵御了外賣領(lǐng)域的競爭，但憑借現(xiàn)成的配送網(wǎng)絡,，京東被視為是一個強大的挑戰(zhàn)者,。與此同時，美團今年也開始進軍京東核心的快速商務領(lǐng)域,、電腦和電子產(chǎn)品等,。
雖然兩家公司都高度依賴中國消費市場，但美團正通過其Keeta應用大舉投資拓展海外外賣業(yè)務,。
Hedgeye Risk Management全球科技與軟件主管菲力克斯·王表示：“京東在中國已沒有太多增長機會,，海外布局也極為有限?！痹诖吮尘跋?，其代價高昂的京東秒送攻勢更像是防御之舉，“不完全是為了開拓外賣業(yè)務”,。
隨著沖突持續(xù),，賣方分析師態(tài)度日趨謹慎,。盡管兩家公司的股票仍獲得壓倒性的買入評級，但美團平均目標價較3月高點下跌8%,，京東則下挫約4%,。
對沖兩只股票下跌風險的成本仍遠高于一年平均水平。對京東而言,，看跌期權(quán)與看漲期權(quán)的未平倉合約比率已飆升至去年8月以來的最高水平,，使其成為港股市場上看空傾向最嚴重的股票之一。 （財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：劉進龍
審校：汪皓
當全世界大部分人都在密切關(guān)注激烈的國際貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)時,，中國兩家互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭正在本土市場展開廝殺,，給彼此造成巨大傷害。
京東集團（JD.com）發(fā)起了一場代價高昂的爭奪戰(zhàn),，試圖從外賣行業(yè)龍頭美團（Meituan）手中搶奪市場份額,，而后者則在不斷侵蝕前者在電商領(lǐng)域的大本營。兩家公司在香港上市的股價自3月高點以來均下跌約30%,，合計市值蒸發(fā)約700億美元,。
投資者正準備迎接一場曠日持久的斗爭，這場較量將沖擊雙方的盈利水平,。分析師已下調(diào)兩家公司的股票目標價,，期權(quán)市場的防御性頭寸也在增加。
瑞士盈豐資產(chǎn)管理（香港）有限公司（EFG Asset Management HK Ltd.）的基金經(jīng)理黛西·李表示：“短期內(nèi)兩家公司的情況都將更加惡化,，目前尚不清楚這場戰(zhàn)役將持續(xù)多久,。”她補充說,，中國外賣市場的白熱化競爭將損害行業(yè)盈利能力,。
盡管唐納德·特朗普的關(guān)稅政策削弱了中國科技股近期的反彈動能，但這場本土競爭所造成的影響依舊備受關(guān)注,。美團和京東名列恒生科技指數(shù)今年表現(xiàn)最差的八只成分股,，而2024年兩家公司的表現(xiàn)還處于指數(shù)排名的上半?yún)^(qū)。
這種轉(zhuǎn)變源于京東今年2月執(zhí)行了燒錢策略,，正式推出“京東秒送”（JD Takeaway）外賣平臺,。總部位于北京的京東宣布為消費者提供超14億美元的折扣優(yōu)惠,，為部分商家免除傭金,，并計劃招聘10萬名全職配送騎手。
摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）估算,，京東已占據(jù)中國外賣市場約5%的份額,。此前外賣市場基本由美團（約占75%）和阿里巴巴集團（Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.）旗下的餓了么（Ele.me）（約占25%）瓜分。該經(jīng)紀商估計，以當前規(guī)模計算,，京東秒送可能產(chǎn)生高達180億元人民幣（合25億美元）的年化虧損,，將抹去母公司2025年36%的經(jīng)營利潤。
分析師艾利克斯·姚在上周二的報告中寫道：“鑒于對集團損益表的財務影響,，我們認為這不是一項可持續(xù)的戰(zhàn)略,。通過深度補貼的增長戰(zhàn)略來獲取可觀市場份額，對新進入者而言成本之高令人卻步,?！?/p>
美團曾成功抵御了外賣領(lǐng)域的競爭，但憑借現(xiàn)成的配送網(wǎng)絡,，京東被視為是一個強大的挑戰(zhàn)者,。與此同時，美團今年也開始進軍京東核心的快速商務領(lǐng)域,、電腦和電子產(chǎn)品等,。
雖然兩家公司都高度依賴中國消費市場，但美團正通過其Keeta應用大舉投資拓展海外外賣業(yè)務,。
Hedgeye Risk Management全球科技與軟件主管菲力克斯·王表示：“京東在中國已沒有太多增長機會,，海外布局也極為有限?！痹诖吮尘跋拢浯鷥r高昂的京東秒送攻勢更像是防御之舉,，“不完全是為了開拓外賣業(yè)務”,。
隨著沖突持續(xù)，賣方分析師態(tài)度日趨謹慎,。盡管兩家公司的股票仍獲得壓倒性的買入評級,，但美團平均目標價較3月高點下跌8%，京東則下挫約4%,。
對沖兩只股票下跌風險的成本仍遠高于一年平均水平,。對京東而言，看跌期權(quán)與看漲期權(quán)的未平倉合約比率已飆升至去年8月以來的最高水平,，使其成為港股市場上看空傾向最嚴重的股票之一,。 （財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：劉進龍
審校：汪皓
While much of the world is focused on a volatile international trade war, two of China’s largest internet companies are inflicting greater damage on each other at home.
JD.com Inc. has launched a costly battle to steal market share away from food-delivery leader Meituan, while the latter has been encroaching on the former’s e-commerce stronghold. The companies’ Hong Kong-listed stocks have dropped about 30% each from March highs, shedding around $70 billion in combined market value.
Investors are bracing for a prolonged struggle that will hurt earnings for the pair. Analysts have cut price targets for both stocks, and defensive positioning has ramped up in the options market.
“Both sides are worse off in the near term, and it’s unclear how long this battle will last,” said Daisy Li, a fund manager at EFG Asset Management HK Ltd. The intense level of competition in the Chinese food-delivery market will damage profitability, she added.
Even as Donald Trump’s tariffs have taken steam out of the recent China tech rally, the impact of this domestic rivalry stands out. Meituan and JD.com rank among the worst eight performers on the Hang Seng Tech Index this year after both were in the top half in 2024.
The switch came as JD.com deployed a cash-burning strategy to promote its JD Takeaway food platform, which was officially launched in February. The Beijing-based company has announced over $1.4 billion in discounts for consumers, waved commission fees for some merchants and aims to hire 100,000 full-time delivery riders.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates JD.com has taken about 5% share of China’s food delivery market, which was previously divided at about 75% for Meituan and 25% for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s Ele.me. The brokerage estimates that at the current scale, JD Takeaway could generate up to 18 billion yuan ($2.5 billion) in annualized losses, wiping out 36% of its parent’s operating profit for 2025.
“We don’t think this is a sustainable strategy because of the financial impact on group P&L,” analyst Alex Yao wrote in a note Tuesday. “It is cost prohibitive for a new entrant to gain significant market share in China’s food delivery market through a deeply subsidized growth strategy.”
Meituan has successfully fended off food-delivery competition in the past, but JD.com is seen as a formidable challenger given its existing delivery network. At the same time, Meituan made inroads this year into JD.com’s core quick-commerce field, computer and electronics products.
While both firms are heavily reliant on Chinese consumption, Meituan has been spending aggressively on expansion into overseas food delivery through its Keeta app.
“JD doesn’t have many growth opportunities left in China, and has very little overseas exposure,” said Felix Wang, head of global technology & software at Hedgeye Risk Management. In this context, its costly JD Takeaway foray is more of a defensive move and “not entirely about food delivery.”
Sell-side analysts have turned more cautious as the skirmish drags on. Though both stocks are overwhelmingly buy rated, the average price target for Meituan is down 8% from a March high, and JD.com’s has dipped about 4%.
The costs of hedging against declines in both stocks remain far above their one-year averages. For JD.com, the ratio of outstanding bearish-to-bullish options has surged to its highest level since August, ranking among the most negatively skewed Hong Kong stocks.
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