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Toyota Motor Corp. is the biggest carmaker in the world — and also the auto industry’s biggest loser when it comes to projected losses from US President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Duties on imported cars and auto parts forced General Motors Co. to slash its full-year profit guidance by as much as $5 billion while Ford Motor Co. is bracing for a $1.5 billion annual hit. Toyota sees a $1.2 billion profit drop in just two months. While the Japanese automaker didn’t provide a tally for all of 2025, it did project operating income of ￥3.8 trillion ($26.1 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 2026 — far below the ￥4.7 trillion expected by analysts.

While Toyota has increased local production in the US to more than half of sales in the country, it still relies on imports of key vehicle parts and models — to the tune of some 1.2 million cars a year. The White House has noticed, with Trump calling out the Toyota City-based automaker by name during his contentious Liberation Day speech in the Rose Garden on April 2. He complained about Toyota’s “one million foreign made automobiles” sold in the US.

The huge tariff hit reflects the company’s decision to hold the line on sticker prices at US dealers and production volumes at its 11 American factories amid the start of bilateral trade negotiations between the US and Japan. Those talks started in February and it’s unclear when they will conclude with a deal.

“When it comes to tariffs, the details are still incredibly fluid,” Toyota’s Chief Executive Officer, Koji Sato, said last week after releasing the latest financial results. “It’s difficult to take steps or measure the impact.”

Japan’s chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on April 30 that one unnamed Japanese automaker is currently losing around $1 million per hour from the tariffs, citing a calculation made by an unidentified corporate executive. A Japanese government official on Friday declined to provide more specifics. But that rate of loss isn’t too far off the mark from the $1.2 billion hit Toyota is projecting based on 730 hours per month. Representatives for Toyota also didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Akazawa has expressed hope that an agreement could be reached in June with the next round of negotiations taking place in late May.

Most imported vehicles became subject to a 25% US duty on April 3 while most auto parts become subject to that levy as of May 3. There are some executive orders that prevent duties from doubling up but considering the US is the biggest market for Japan’s five largest carmakers, even a moderately increase in tariffs will have an outsized impact on their bottom lines.

The Trump administration reached its first trade deal on May 8 with the United Kingdom. But the US had a $11.9 billion goods trade surplus with the UK last year, whereas it ran a $68.5 billion deficit with Japan. That may make it more difficult to secure an agreement without significant concessions by one side.

“The hurdle is high for Japan to get auto tariffs lowered” on exports to the US, said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management Co. “At the same time, the auto industry is too important for Japan to simply go along with what the US wants.”

Some Japanese automakers have responded to the tough new trade environment by making changes to their global manufacturing footprints. Nissan Motor Co. halted US orders for SUVs built in Mexico while Honda Motor Co. is shifting production of the hybrid version of its Civic from Japan to the US. Due to retaliatory tariffs against the US, Mazda Motor Co. is stopping exports to Canada of one model that’s manufactured at an Alabama factory that’s a joint venture with Toyota.

Japan Production Pledge

Toyota has already invested heavily to build out its US operations — including spending $13.9 billion on a new battery plant in North Carolina. But it also remains committed to maintaining its extensive domestic production base. Chairman Akio Toyoda has repeatedly pledged to keep making at least three million vehicles a year in Japan. Last year, the company built 3.1 million cars in its home country, about a third of its worldwide production total.

Globally, Toyota sold 10.8 million cars in 2024, with the US accounting for a little less than a quarter of those. While half were made locally and another 30% came from neighboring Canada and Mexico, some 281,000 vehicles were imported from Japan. That includes popular models such as the 4Runner mid-sized SUV, Prius hybrid and several upscale Lexus vehicles.

The company’s best-sellers in the US — the RAV4 hybrid crossover and Corolla compact sedan — are assembled at factories in Kentucky and Mississippi. But gas-only RAV4s are imported from Canada and the plug-in hybrid comes from Japan. Corolla models variants like the sporty GR, practical hatchback and gas-electric hybrid also carry made-in-Japan labels.

That exposure puts Toyota in the crosshairs of the Trump administration and means the automaker has a lot riding on the outcome of the US-Japan trade negotiations.

The carmaker has quietly pushed back on the White House’s critique, noting through a spokesman that it’s committed to spend almost $21 billion in the US just since 2020. That’s nearly double the pledge it made during Trump’s first administration — after similarly coming under attack by the US president. Toyota also said has increased direct manufacturing employment in the US to 31,000 workers, up from 25,000 in 2016.

One issue it faces: A severe restraint on flexibility at existing manufacturing facilities in the US, which could affect its ability to shift vehicles from overseas plants. Toyota’s factory in Georgetown, Kentucky — the oldest and largest of its US vehicle-assembly operations — has no slack for new models. It was running full-tilt at nearly 100% of its maximum capacity as of late April, according to a US-based representative for the company.