
美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普宣布了一項(xiàng)臨時(shí)?;饏f(xié)議(但尚未得到以色列或伊朗證實(shí)),,這可能已經(jīng)改變了全球市場(chǎng)的走向,。在此之前的數(shù)小時(shí),,市場(chǎng)還面臨潛在的石油危機(jī)和通脹上升的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。
伊朗議會(huì)上周日投票決定關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽,,這條海峽對(duì)全球石油貿(mào)易至關(guān)重要,。這一出人意料的投票結(jié)果以及隨之而來(lái)的停火,,突顯了伊朗和阿拉伯半島之間這條狹窄海峽對(duì)全球的重要性。全球20%的石油產(chǎn)量經(jīng)由該海峽運(yùn)輸,。
此舉最先由伊朗國(guó)家電視臺(tái)Press TV報(bào)道,。在此之前,,美國(guó)于上周日襲擊了伊朗的核設(shè)施,隨后伊朗于周一襲擊了卡塔爾美軍基地作為報(bào)復(fù),。盡管周一石油市場(chǎng)下跌了4%(即每桶3美元),,但分析師預(yù)計(jì),,若伊朗最高國(guó)家安全委員會(huì)(Supreme National Security Council)批準(zhǔn)關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽,,油價(jià)將急劇上漲。
伊朗關(guān)閉海峽的計(jì)劃即使在?;鹦记皩?shí)際發(fā)生的可能性也很低,,但若關(guān)閉該海峽,,可能對(duì)歐洲和英國(guó)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生巨大影響。即使該水道受到輕微干擾,,也可能對(duì)本就在準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對(duì)通脹上升的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成沖擊,。分析師表示,,伊朗在該地區(qū)的報(bào)復(fù)行動(dòng)所導(dǎo)致的油價(jià)適度上漲,,甚至可能影響美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在今年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)推行降息的方式,。
英國(guó)投行Panmure Liberum的研究分析師蘇珊娜·克魯茲對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“(關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽)可能會(huì)演變成一次滯脹沖擊,就像我們?cè)?022年俄烏沖突爆發(fā)之后看到的那樣,?!?/p>
克魯茲預(yù)計(jì),如果伊朗關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽,,油價(jià)沖擊將使美國(guó)的整體通脹率上升1%,。她和她的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)測(cè),在另一種“更有可能”的情景中,,即海峽未關(guān)閉但第三季度油價(jià)上漲20%,,將使美國(guó)的整體通脹率上升0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),歐元區(qū)上升0.4%,,英國(guó)上升0.3%,。這可能迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)維持利率不變——這是他們自去年12月以來(lái)一直采取的策略,盡管特朗普施壓要求降息,。
專家表示,即使伊朗決定關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽,,該國(guó)可能也沒(méi)有能力兌現(xiàn)其威脅,。
國(guó)家能源分析中心(National Center for Energy Analytics,,NCEA)高級(jí)研究員保羅·泰斯對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“(伊朗)在關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽的問(wèn)題上大造聲勢(shì),,但他們是否有能力做到這一點(diǎn)是個(gè)未知數(shù)?!?/p>
與泰斯的推理一致,布倫特原油價(jià)格周一開盤后從每桶78.97美元小幅下跌,,到下午時(shí)分徘徊在70美元左右,因?yàn)榻灰讍T看到霍爾木茲海峽上油輪仍在持續(xù)通行,。特朗普周一在其社交媒體“Truth Social”上發(fā)文懇求石油行業(yè)保持低油價(jià),。他警告讀者:“我在盯著呢,!你們正中敵人下懷,。別這么干!”
但克魯茲警告稱,,即使油價(jià)短暫上漲20%,,也可能影響央行的前景預(yù)期,,央行本就在為“關(guān)稅不斷累積的通脹影響”做準(zhǔn)備,。
克魯茲表示:“如果油價(jià)再帶來(lái)額外的石油沖擊,,那么我們今年剩余時(shí)間肯定看不到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息了,。(央行)需要確保這種沖擊確實(shí)是暫時(shí)的,,并且避免重蹈2022年的覆轍:即認(rèn)為通脹影響將是短暫的,。”
克魯茲表示,,油價(jià)上漲20%的情景將在今年第三季度達(dá)到頂峰,并在2026年第三季度消失,。根據(jù)Panmure Liberum的估計(jì),在此情景下,,美國(guó)股市將下跌5%至10%,。
美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)前首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家伊?!す锼垢嬖V《財(cái)富》雜志,,盡管美國(guó)面臨著“頑固高通脹與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢的雙重困境,,坦率地說(shuō),,我更擔(dān)心的是貿(mào)易戰(zhàn),而不是油價(jià)沖擊,?!?/p>
哈里斯持有的觀點(diǎn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家當(dāng)中較為普遍,,即美國(guó)消費(fèi)者將在今年夏天開始看到由關(guān)稅推動(dòng)的價(jià)格上漲,并預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月會(huì)開始看到CPI升高的報(bào)告。
哈里斯在周一的通訊中寫道,,美國(guó)人“更愿意”將油價(jià)沖擊視為暫時(shí)的,。他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),,相比1990年伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)等沖突引發(fā)的油價(jià)沖擊時(shí)期,,美國(guó)現(xiàn)在對(duì)石油進(jìn)口的依賴程度要低得多,,并且隨著國(guó)家變得更加“服務(wù)導(dǎo)向化”,整體對(duì)石油的依賴也有所降低。
哈里斯寫道:“因此,大多數(shù)實(shí)證研究表明,,油價(jià)每桶上漲10美元,,GDP僅會(huì)下降0.1%或更少,?!?/p>
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師估計(jì)存在每桶12美元的“地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)”,,他們將其定義為自6月10日油價(jià)收于每桶66.9美元以來(lái)的漲幅。6月11日,,特朗普表示對(duì)與伊朗達(dá)成核協(xié)議的信心減弱。
高盛分析師在上周日發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中表示,,如果每天經(jīng)霍爾木茲海峽運(yùn)輸?shù)慕?,000萬(wàn)桶石油在一個(gè)月內(nèi)減少50%,,并在接下來(lái)的11個(gè)月中持續(xù)減少10%,,可能導(dǎo)致布倫特油價(jià)達(dá)到每桶110美元,。每桶石油的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)將升至略高于25美元,。
盡管哈里斯表示預(yù)測(cè)極端石油沖擊“沒(méi)有神奇數(shù)字”,但每桶油價(jià)必須達(dá)到“遠(yuǎn)高于100美元”才會(huì)引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。
據(jù)《今日以色列》報(bào)道,,自與以色列爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)以來(lái),伊朗伊斯蘭共和國(guó)的石油出口量已從每日約250萬(wàn)桶驟降至僅15萬(wàn)桶。
麥格理銀行(Macquarie Bank)策略師認(rèn)為,,即使霍爾木茲海峽在未來(lái)關(guān)閉,,也有變通之道。
策略師在一份報(bào)告中寫道:“海峽關(guān)閉并非完全無(wú)法克服,,因?yàn)椴糠衷诓ㄋ篂掣劭谘b載的石油可以通過(guò)陸路運(yùn)輸,。但相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是伊朗襲擊該地區(qū)的石油生產(chǎn)設(shè)施?!?/p>
全球20%的石油產(chǎn)量經(jīng)霍爾木茲海峽運(yùn)輸,。專家表示,關(guān)閉該水道將嚴(yán)重影響伊朗經(jīng)濟(jì),,因?yàn)槭褪窃搰?guó)最大的出口產(chǎn)品之一,。
國(guó)家能源分析中心的泰斯表示:“他們這是在傷害自己?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普宣布了一項(xiàng)臨時(shí)?;饏f(xié)議(但尚未得到以色列或伊朗證實(shí)),這可能已經(jīng)改變了全球市場(chǎng)的走向,。在此之前的數(shù)小時(shí),,市場(chǎng)還面臨潛在的石油危機(jī)和通脹上升的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
伊朗議會(huì)上周日投票決定關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽,,這條海峽對(duì)全球石油貿(mào)易至關(guān)重要,。這一出人意料的投票結(jié)果以及隨之而來(lái)的停火,,突顯了伊朗和阿拉伯半島之間這條狹窄海峽對(duì)全球的重要性,。全球20%的石油產(chǎn)量經(jīng)由該海峽運(yùn)輸。
此舉最先由伊朗國(guó)家電視臺(tái)Press TV報(bào)道,。在此之前,,美國(guó)于上周日襲擊了伊朗的核設(shè)施,,隨后伊朗于周一襲擊了卡塔爾美軍基地作為報(bào)復(fù),。盡管周一石油市場(chǎng)下跌了4%(即每桶3美元),但分析師預(yù)計(jì),,若伊朗最高國(guó)家安全委員會(huì)(Supreme National Security Council)批準(zhǔn)關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽,,油價(jià)將急劇上漲。
伊朗關(guān)閉海峽的計(jì)劃即使在?;鹦记皩?shí)際發(fā)生的可能性也很低,,但若關(guān)閉該海峽,可能對(duì)歐洲和英國(guó)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生巨大影響,。即使該水道受到輕微干擾,,也可能對(duì)本就在準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對(duì)通脹上升的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成沖擊。分析師表示,伊朗在該地區(qū)的報(bào)復(fù)行動(dòng)所導(dǎo)致的油價(jià)適度上漲,,甚至可能影響美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在今年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)推行降息的方式,。
英國(guó)投行Panmure Liberum的研究分析師蘇珊娜·克魯茲對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“(關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽)可能會(huì)演變成一次滯脹沖擊,就像我們?cè)?022年俄烏沖突爆發(fā)之后看到的那樣,?!?/p>
克魯茲預(yù)計(jì),如果伊朗關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽,,油價(jià)沖擊將使美國(guó)的整體通脹率上升1%,。她和她的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)測(cè),在另一種“更有可能”的情景中,,即海峽未關(guān)閉但第三季度油價(jià)上漲20%,,將使美國(guó)的整體通脹率上升0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),歐元區(qū)上升0.4%,,英國(guó)上升0.3%,。這可能迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)維持利率不變——這是他們自去年12月以來(lái)一直采取的策略,盡管特朗普施壓要求降息,。
專家表示,,即使伊朗決定關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽,該國(guó)可能也沒(méi)有能力兌現(xiàn)其威脅,。
國(guó)家能源分析中心(National Center for Energy Analytics,,NCEA)高級(jí)研究員保羅·泰斯對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“(伊朗)在關(guān)閉霍爾木茲海峽的問(wèn)題上大造聲勢(shì),但他們是否有能力做到這一點(diǎn)是個(gè)未知數(shù),?!?/p>
與泰斯的推理一致,布倫特原油價(jià)格周一開盤后從每桶78.97美元小幅下跌,,到下午時(shí)分徘徊在70美元左右,,因?yàn)榻灰讍T看到霍爾木茲海峽上油輪仍在持續(xù)通行。特朗普周一在其社交媒體“Truth Social”上發(fā)文懇求石油行業(yè)保持低油價(jià),。他警告讀者:“我在盯著呢,!你們正中敵人下懷。別這么干,!”
但克魯茲警告稱,,即使油價(jià)短暫上漲20%,也可能影響央行的前景預(yù)期,,央行本就在為“關(guān)稅不斷累積的通脹影響”做準(zhǔn)備,。
克魯茲表示:“如果油價(jià)再帶來(lái)額外的石油沖擊,那么我們今年剩余時(shí)間肯定看不到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息了,。(央行)需要確保這種沖擊確實(shí)是暫時(shí)的,,并且避免重蹈2022年的覆轍:即認(rèn)為通脹影響將是短暫的,。”
克魯茲表示,,油價(jià)上漲20%的情景將在今年第三季度達(dá)到頂峰,,并在2026年第三季度消失。根據(jù)Panmure Liberum的估計(jì),,在此情景下,,美國(guó)股市將下跌5%至10%。
美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)前首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家伊?!す锼垢嬖V《財(cái)富》雜志,,盡管美國(guó)面臨著“頑固高通脹與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢的雙重困境,坦率地說(shuō),,我更擔(dān)心的是貿(mào)易戰(zhàn),,而不是油價(jià)沖擊?!?/p>
哈里斯持有的觀點(diǎn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家當(dāng)中較為普遍,,即美國(guó)消費(fèi)者將在今年夏天開始看到由關(guān)稅推動(dòng)的價(jià)格上漲,并預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月會(huì)開始看到CPI升高的報(bào)告,。
哈里斯在周一的通訊中寫道,,美國(guó)人“更愿意”將油價(jià)沖擊視為暫時(shí)的。他補(bǔ)充說(shuō),,相比1990年伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)等沖突引發(fā)的油價(jià)沖擊時(shí)期,,美國(guó)現(xiàn)在對(duì)石油進(jìn)口的依賴程度要低得多,并且隨著國(guó)家變得更加“服務(wù)導(dǎo)向化”,,整體對(duì)石油的依賴也有所降低,。
哈里斯寫道:“因此,大多數(shù)實(shí)證研究表明,,油價(jià)每桶上漲10美元,,GDP僅會(huì)下降0.1%或更少?!?/p>
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師估計(jì)存在每桶12美元的“地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)”,,他們將其定義為自6月10日油價(jià)收于每桶66.9美元以來(lái)的漲幅。6月11日,,特朗普表示對(duì)與伊朗達(dá)成核協(xié)議的信心減弱,。
高盛分析師在上周日發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中表示,,如果每天經(jīng)霍爾木茲海峽運(yùn)輸?shù)慕?,000萬(wàn)桶石油在一個(gè)月內(nèi)減少50%,,并在接下來(lái)的11個(gè)月中持續(xù)減少10%,可能導(dǎo)致布倫特油價(jià)達(dá)到每桶110美元,。每桶石油的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)將升至略高于25美元,。
盡管哈里斯表示預(yù)測(cè)極端石油沖擊“沒(méi)有神奇數(shù)字”,,但每桶油價(jià)必須達(dá)到“遠(yuǎn)高于100美元”才會(huì)引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
據(jù)《今日以色列》報(bào)道,,自與以色列爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)以來(lái),,伊朗伊斯蘭共和國(guó)的石油出口量已從每日約250萬(wàn)桶驟降至僅15萬(wàn)桶。
麥格理銀行(Macquarie Bank)策略師認(rèn)為,,即使霍爾木茲海峽在未來(lái)關(guān)閉,,也有變通之道。
策略師在一份報(bào)告中寫道:“海峽關(guān)閉并非完全無(wú)法克服,,因?yàn)椴糠衷诓ㄋ篂掣劭谘b載的石油可以通過(guò)陸路運(yùn)輸,。但相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是伊朗襲擊該地區(qū)的石油生產(chǎn)設(shè)施?!?/p>
全球20%的石油產(chǎn)量經(jīng)霍爾木茲海峽運(yùn)輸,。專家表示,關(guān)閉該水道將嚴(yán)重影響伊朗經(jīng)濟(jì),,因?yàn)槭褪窃搰?guó)最大的出口產(chǎn)品之一,。
國(guó)家能源分析中心的泰斯表示:“他們這是在傷害自己?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
A tentative ceasefire announced by President Donald Trump this evening—but not yet verified by Israel or Iran—may have shifted the course of world markets that were staring down a potential oil shock and elevated inflation just hours ago.
Iran’s parliament voted on Sunday to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway to the global oil trade. The surprise vote, and ensuing ceasefire, puts in sharp relief the global importance of the narrow strait between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, which carries 20% of global oil production.
The move, first reported by Iran’s state-run Press TV, comes after the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday and before Iran retaliated by attacking the U.S. military base in Qatar on Monday. While oil markets slipped 4%, or $3 per barrel Monday, analysts anticipated a sharp price increase if the country’s Supreme National Security Council approved the closure of the strait.
Iran’s supposed plans to shut the strait, while unlikely to actually happen even before the ceasefire announcement, could have resounding effects on European and UK markets—and even a slight disruption on the waterway could shock a U.S. economy already preparing for a rise in inflation. Modest increases in oil prices due to Iranian retaliation in the region could even have effects on how the Federal Reserve navigates rate cuts for the remainder of the year, analysts say.
“[Closing the Strait of Hormuz] could turn into a stagflationary shock like the one we saw in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Susana Cruz, research analyst for Panmure Liberum, a UK investment banking firm, told Fortune.
If Iran closes the waterway, Cruz expects the shock in oil prices to increase headline inflation in the U.S. 1%. Another, “more likely,” scenario where the strait doesn’t close but oil prices rise by 20% in the third quarter would increase headline inflation half a percentage point in the U.S., 0.4% in the Eurozone, and 0.3% in the UK, Cruz and her research team predict. This could force the Fed to hold interest rates, a strategy they’ve employed since December despite Trump’s pressure to cut rates.
Iran may not have the ability to back up its threat, even if they move to, experts say.
“[Iran is] making noise about closing the Strait of Hormuz,” Paul Tice, a senior fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics, told Fortune. “It’s unclear if they have the capacity to do that.”
In line with Tice’s reasoning, Brent crude oil prices edged down from $78.97 at open, hovering around $70 by Monday afternoon, as traders see continued tanker flow on the Strait of Hormuz. Trump implored the oil sector to keep prices low today in a Truth Social post, warning readers: “I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!”
But even a transitory 20% increase in oil price could affect the outlook from central banks that brace for “an inflationary impact already building up from the tariffs,” Cruz warned.
“If you have an additional oil shock from oil prices, then we definitely wouldn’t see the Fed cutting rates for the rest of the year,” Cruz said. “[Central banks] need to make sure that this shock is actually transitory and to kind of not make the same mistake that they did in 2022: assuming that it will be a transitory effect on inflation.”
The scenario of a 20% increase in oil prices would peak in the third quarter of this year and disappear in the third quarter of 2026, Cruz said. The U.S. stock market would fall 5% to 10% in this scenario, according to Panmure Liberum estimates.
Despite the U.S. facing “a combination of sticky, high inflation and [a] slow growth economy” Ethan Harris, former chief economist at Bank of America, told Fortune, “I’m much more worried, frankly, about the trade war than I am about the oil price shock.”
Harris holds the view popular among economists that U.S. consumers will start to see the tariff-fueled price increases over the summer, and expects to start seeing inflated CPI reports in the upcoming months.
In his Monday newsletter, Harris wrote that people in the U.S. economy are “more willing” to see oil price shocks as transitory. He added that the U.S. is much less dependent on oil imports than it was during oil price shocks caused by flashpoints like the U.S.-Iraq war in 1990 and is less dependent on oil overall as the country has become more “service oriented.”
“As a result, most empirical work suggests a $10/bbl [per barrel] rise in the price of oil lowers GDP 0.1% or less,” Harris wrote.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a “geopolitical risk premium” of $12/bbl, defining the value as the increase in oil price since it closed at $66.9/bbl on June 10. On June 11, Trump said he was less confident about reaching a nuclear deal with Iran.
In a report published Sunday, Goldman analysts said a scenario where the nearly 20 million barrels of oil volumes that flow through the Strait of Hormuz each day drop 50% for one month and then remain down 10% for another 11 months could cause the Brent price to reach $110/bbl. The risk premium per barrel would rise to just over $25.
Although Harris says there’s “no magic number” to predict an extreme oil shock, the price per barrel would have to reach “well above $100” to threaten a recession.
The Islamic Republic’s oil exports have fallen from around 2.5 million barrels per day to just 150,000 barrels following the outbreak of war with Israel, Israel Hayom reported.
Even if the strait is shut in the future, Macquarie Bank strategists see a workaround.
“Any closing of the Strait would not be completely insurmountable, because some of the oil loaded at Gulf terminals could be shipped overland,” the strategists wrote in a note. “But an associated risk is an Iran attack on regional oil-production sites.”
Twenty percent of global oil production flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and experts say closing the waterway would affect Iran’s economy significantly, as oil is one of the country’s largest exports.
“They would be hurting themselves,” Tice of NCEA said.