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Yelp上市可能乘興而來敗興而歸

Yelp上市可能乘興而來敗興而歸

Kevin Kelleher 2011-12-01
團購網(wǎng)站Groupon、流媒體音樂網(wǎng)站Pandora和商務(wù)社交網(wǎng)站LinkedIn業(yè)績紛紛下滑或極易遭到過度解讀,,但大眾點評網(wǎng)站Yelp眼下面臨的逆境確實可能讓它深陷麻煩,。

????英語詞匯yelp與名為Yelp的美國商戶點評網(wǎng)Yelp不同,它起源于16世紀(jì),最初意為“自吹自擂”,。經(jīng)過多年演變,,它的意思逐漸演變,如今已經(jīng)變得迥然不同:按照《簡明牛津英語詞典》(Concise OED)的釋義,,它表示“短促,、尖利的叫聲,尤其是由于疼痛或受驚所致”,。

????眼下,,Yelp這家公司正在積極籌備上市,Yelp這個詞含義演變所需要經(jīng)歷的時間跨度似乎會小得多,。Yelp成立于2004年,。它發(fā)展迅猛,很快就超越另一家點評網(wǎng)站Citysearch,,成為消費者點評飯店和本地商戶的首選,。據(jù)稱,它曾拒絕了谷歌公司(Google)高達5億美元的收購出價,,一心要實現(xiàn)自己的首次公開募股(IPO),,這將使其市值達到20億美元。這倒確實讓Yelp有了大把的自吹自擂的資本,。

????但是,,一方面現(xiàn)在的股市動蕩不安,另一方面,,投資者也開始意識到,,這些年輕的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司可能并不是那么炙手可熱的投資對象,因此,,IPO的前景可能將并不如Yelp所愿,。上周,團購領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)公司Groupon和另一家近期上市的點評網(wǎng)站Angie's List的股價雙雙下挫,,這就意味著市場對技術(shù)型公司IPO的熱情可能正在消褪(而Facebook公司或許將于2012年4月進行IPO,,它是屬于自成體系的一類。)

????上周三天半的交易中,,Groupon的股價下跌了36%,,報收于16.75美元,大大低于其20美元的發(fā)行價,。Angie's List下跌了15%,,報收于13.5美元,僅比其11月16日的發(fā)行價略高50美分,。2011年發(fā)行的同類IPO也業(yè)績慘淡,,流媒體音樂服務(wù)提供商Pandora的股價下挫16%,,商務(wù)社交網(wǎng)站LinkedIn股價下跌了12%。而相比之下,,盡管市場對歐洲的財政危機感到惶惶不安,,但納斯達克綜合指數(shù)(Nasdaq Composite)僅下跌了5%。

????人們很容易對這些下跌做出過分解讀,。畢竟,,上周由于感恩節(jié)放假,交易額規(guī)模不大,,這也加劇了股價動蕩,。而Groupon由于突然成為做空者的最愛,它有望成為一支股價特別容易出現(xiàn)波動的股票,。如果歐洲的局勢能夠穩(wěn)定下來,,或者如果另一家網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司的IPO——比如說社交游戲公司Zynga——能很快強勢首發(fā),那么上周的低迷行情就可以被視為IPO市場的一個小小的插曲,。

????而在某些方面,,Yelp似乎與Groupon迥然不同。媒體對它即將IPO的消息關(guān)注有限,,而Groupon則是媒體熱議了好幾個月的話題,。Groupon現(xiàn)在給人的感覺就像當(dāng)年的eBay,一時風(fēng)光無限,,卻將很快迎來頹勢,。而在更大程度上,Yelp是一個穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的組織,,它能夠持續(xù)多年經(jīng)營,。Groupon則是通過預(yù)先投資,在幾年間實現(xiàn)了飛速發(fā)展,,而Yelp則按部就班地實現(xiàn)著增長。

????此處是Yelp網(wǎng)站六年前的架構(gòu),。它現(xiàn)在的樣子基本照舊,,只是當(dāng)時僅有數(shù)千條評論。而今天,,Yelp擁有2,200萬條評論,。不過,它也是花了好幾年時間才發(fā)展到這樣的規(guī)模,,其訣竅就是:專注于反映用戶和飯店的體驗,,而不是把力氣花在大而無當(dāng)?shù)脑u價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)上。Yelp并不是那種迫不及待要賺快錢的公司,。

????Unlike Yelp the company, "yelp" the word dates back to the 1500's, when its original meaning was "boasting". Over the years, it came to mean something quite different: "A short, sharp cry, especially of pain or alarm" as the Concise OED puts it.

????That downward trajectory seems to be playing out over a much shorter time span as Yelp the company gets ready to go public. Founded in 2004, Yelp soon sprinted past Citysearch as the premier site for customer reviews of restaurants and local businesses. The company reportedly spurned a $500 million offer from Google (GOOG), only to file for an IPO that could value the company at $2 billion. That wold give Yelp a lot to boast about.

????But that outcome may be derailed by a turbulent stock market and a growing sense among investors that the IPOs of young social-web startups may not be such hot investments after all. Groupon (GRPN), the leader in the group buying market, and Angie's List (ANGI), another user-review site that recently went public, fell last week, suggesting the appetite for tech IPOs may be waning. (Facebook, which may be targeting and April 2012 IPO, is in a category by itself.)

????In the three and a half days of trading last week, Groupon's stock fell 36% to $16.75, well below its $20 offering price. Angie's List fell 15% to $13.50, or 50 cents above its Nov. 16 offering price. Other IPOs in the class of 2011 fared poorly as Pandora (P) stock fell 16% and LinkedIn (LNKD) dropped 12%. The Nasdaq Composite, by contrast, declined 5% in a market jittery about the financial turmoil in Europe.

????It can be easy to read too much into these declines. After all, trading was light ahead of last week's Thanksgiving holiday, adding to volatility. And Groupon, an sudden favorite of short sellers, is looking to be an especially volatile stock. If things settle down in Europe, or if another web IPO -- say, Zynga -- has a strong debut soon, last week's gloom could be seen as a brief aberration in the IPO market.

????And in some ways, Yelp seems quite different from Groupon. Its IPO has received a moderate amount of coverage, while Groupon's was the subject of a passionate debate for months. Groupon feels like an eBay-like (EBAY) trend waiting to peter out. Yelp is more of a steady resource that could last for many years. While Groupon invested up front to grow quickly in a couple of years, Yelp nurtured its growth slowly.

????Here's an archive of Yelp's site six years ago. It looks much the same, only with a few thousand reviews. Today, Yelp has 22 million reviews, but it's taken several years to grow that big, focusing on the experience for users and restaurants rather than spectacular metrics. This is not a company in a rush to cash out.

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