????市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)國(guó)際數(shù)據(jù)公司（IDC）指出,，2012年,，全球IT開(kāi)支預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)1.8萬(wàn)億美元,。其中，用于移動(dòng)計(jì)算,、社交網(wǎng)絡(luò),、以及分析軟件等迅猛發(fā)展的技術(shù)的開(kāi)支所占比例將逐漸增加。這意味著一大批新型公司明年將開(kāi)始進(jìn)入收獲期,。

????2012年，盡管微軟公司（Microsoft）,、IBM,、甲骨文公司（Oracle）等老牌企業(yè)級(jí)公司的IT部門(mén)仍然會(huì)有上十億美元的進(jìn)項(xiàng)，但Facebook,、亞馬遜（Amazon）、以及谷歌（Google）等遲到的新秀以及依托于云技術(shù)的小型公司分到嘴里的蛋糕很可能也會(huì)進(jìn)一步增大,。以亞馬遜互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)為例,，到明年底，其云服務(wù)收入預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)突破10億美元大關(guān),。同時(shí),，谷歌的企業(yè)級(jí)業(yè)務(wù)也會(huì)緊隨其后,，在1年半的時(shí)間內(nèi)突破這個(gè)關(guān)口,。“企業(yè)級(jí)平臺(tái)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位的爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)一觸即發(fā),，IBM,、微軟、和甲骨文等老字號(hào)面臨著來(lái)自亞馬遜,、谷歌、企業(yè)客戶軟件互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司Salesforce.com,、以及互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司VMware等新型公司的強(qiáng)有力的挑戰(zhàn),，”IDC最近在一份報(bào)告中指出。

????這也是老牌企業(yè)開(kāi)始收購(gòu)獨(dú)立的軟件即服務(wù)（SaaS）廠商的原因所在,，因?yàn)楹笳咭鄷?huì)受益于2012年IT開(kāi)支的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。其中,，Workday,、Taleo、Netsuite等一批公司很可能在明年被大公司收入囊中,。過(guò)去幾個(gè)月中，這一領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了幾次大規(guī)模的收購(gòu),。本月初， SAP公司宣布,，以34億美元的價(jià)格,，收購(gòu)基于云的人力資源管理軟件廠商成功因素公司（SuccessFactors）,。去年10月，甲骨文亦以15億美元的價(jià)格,，收購(gòu)了在線客戶服務(wù)公司即刻科技公司（RightNow Technologies）,。2012年，大型企業(yè)以收購(gòu)的方式,，進(jìn)入云計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的趨勢(shì)將會(huì)延續(xù)。這對(duì)于基于云的小型軟件廠商,，至少對(duì)那些被收購(gòu)的公司來(lái)說(shuō),，這無(wú)疑是個(gè)利好消息。

????接下來(lái)說(shuō)說(shuō)Facebook,。社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)領(lǐng)域的大哥大一直在探索實(shí)現(xiàn)收入來(lái)源多元化的途徑,。IDC首席分析師弗蘭克?詹斯表示，為了達(dá)到這個(gè)二畝地,，該公司可以利用它在網(wǎng)民中的支配地位,，轉(zhuǎn)型成為銀行和在線零售商的身份管理平臺(tái),，從而發(fā)揮更多更大的作用?！坝脩舻腇acebook身份有可能成為網(wǎng)民通用的在線身份,，”詹斯指出?！爸挥星缚蓴?shù)的幾家公司在消費(fèi)者中有足夠的號(hào)召力,，并且能切實(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)上述目標(biāo),，而Facebook便是其中之一?！?/p>

????從一定程度上來(lái)說(shuō),，F(xiàn)acebook Connect已經(jīng)做到了這一點(diǎn)。通過(guò)它,，用戶們可以用其Facebook身份登錄其他網(wǎng)站。在用戶檔案與支付站點(diǎn)和在線零售商之間建立連接,，用戶憑借其Facebook身份,，輕松點(diǎn)擊一下鼠標(biāo)就能登錄網(wǎng)站，而且還能完成采購(gòu)操作,。憑借這優(yōu)勢(shì)，F(xiàn)acebook即可捷足先登,，在企業(yè)級(jí)市場(chǎng)成為規(guī)模更大,、且業(yè)務(wù)更為多樣化的公司。

????盡管Facebook和其他新秀有可能爭(zhēng)得更大的市場(chǎng)份額,，但2012年的絕大部分IT開(kāi)支仍將被老牌IT廠商瓜分?！癐T行業(yè)仍將繼續(xù)2011年的轉(zhuǎn)型之路,，但2012年的行業(yè)事件,、廠商選擇,、以及籌碼大小也會(huì)與今年截然不同，”IDC首席分析師詹斯在最近發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告中稱,。“在爭(zhēng)奪未來(lái)10年行業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位的馬拉松式競(jìng)賽中,，哪些公司能夠成功上位,，進(jìn)入‘領(lǐng)跑方陣’，等到2012年底時(shí),，形勢(shì)將會(huì)明朗化?！?/p>

????譯者：大海

????Worldwide IT spending is expected to hit $1.8 trillion in 2012, according to research firm IDC. An increasing portion of those dollars will be spent on fast-growing technologies like mobile computing, social networking and analytics, which means a new lineup of companies could start to benefit in 2012.

????While the traditional enterprise players (think Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM)and Oracle (ORCL)) still rake in billions of dollars from IT departments, relative newcomers like Facebook, Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) plus smaller cloud-based companies are likely to snag a growing piece of the pie in 2012. Take Amazon Web Services, which is expected to top $1 billion in cloud services revenue by end of next year. Google's enterprise business, meanwhile, is expected to follow within 18 months. "The battle for enterprise platform dominance is just getting underway with established players like IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle facing serious challenges from Amazon, Google, Salesforce.com (CRM), and VMware (VMW)," notes a recent report from IDC.

????That's why traditional enterprise players are buying independent software-as-a-service vendors, which also stand to benefit from trends in IT spending in 2012. A handful of them -- like Workday, Taleo (TLEO) and Netsuite (N) -- are likely to get snapped up in the coming year. In the last few months there have already been several large-scale acquisitions in this space. Earlier this month, SAP announced it is buying cloud-based HR management software maker SuccessFactors (SFSF) for $3.4 billion, and last October Oracle acquired online customer service company RightNow Technologies (RNOW) for $1.5 billion. This trend of large enterprise players buying their way into the cloud will likely continue in 2012. That's good news for smaller cloud-based software vendors, at least the ones that get acquired.

????And then there's Facebook. The biggest name in social networking has been looking for a way to diversify its revenue stream. To that end, says IDC chief analyst Frank Gens, it could leverage its dominance with consumers into a larger role as an identity management platform for banks and online retailers. "Your Facebook identity could become your online identity everywhere," says Gens. "Facebook is one of the very few companies that has the reach to consumers to actually pull it off."

????That's already happening to some extent with Facebook Connect, which allows users to log into websites using their Facebook identity. Linking profiles to payment sites and online retailers could enable users to not only sign in but also make purchases with one click using their Facebook credentials. And that could put Facebook on the path of becoming a bigger and more diversified player in the enterprise market.

????But despite the potential for Facebook and other relative newcomers to snag a growing share, the majority of IT dollars will be spread among the usual suspects in 2012. "Even though the IT industry will follow along the same transformational path as it did in 2011, the events, the choices, and the stakes will be very different in 2012," chief analyst Gens said in a recent IDC report. "By the end of 2012, we should be able to see much more clearly which players have successfully positioned themselves in the 'lead pack' of the marathon-like race for industry leadership in the decade ahead."