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第二十一講:新亂世

第二十一講:新亂世

《財富》(中文版) 2011-04-12
我們的余生都會很不穩(wěn)定,、不確定,會被快速而巨大的力量所左右,,而我們自身無力掌控,。很可能這是我們余生將要一直面臨的狀態(tài)。

高德思先說說您手頭的項目,我想是一本寫了六年的書,。六年是做研究的時間,。

吉姆·柯林斯我和同事莫頓·漢森的共同工作開始于2002年,我在這里不會說得太多,,我能夠提供更多的應該說是一個問題,。莫頓是我的合作伙伴,我們的項目開始于2002年,。

高德思我很好奇的是你們在關注什么,。

吉姆·柯林斯當我們結束之后,我和莫頓都下了很大功夫把書稿整合起來,。我們去年完成了研究,,對我來說最有趣之處在于我有幸從頭至尾參與其中。我想這是因為我一直認為這個世界是不穩(wěn)定的,,我自己的成長經歷讓我覺得不穩(wěn)定,,還有許多其他的事情令我覺得這個世界似乎不太穩(wěn)定。所以這項工作的前提就是,,我們的余生都會很不穩(wěn)定,、不確定,會被快速而巨大的力量所左右,,而我們自身無力掌控,。

我想說的清楚一些。這和討論衰退期是很不一樣的,衰退更容易應對,??梢韵胂笠幌履囊粋€更難應付:是不確定、不穩(wěn)定,、瞬息萬變,、但是充滿機遇的某種力量;還是不確定,、不穩(wěn)定,、快速變化著的危機。危機更好應對,,因為你該做什么是很清楚的,,而前者更模糊些。所以這不是危急時刻與非危急時刻的比較,。

高德思對,。

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???

Thomas D. Gorman: Switching gears for a moment to your current project, a new book in the works for six years, I believe.

Jim Collins: That's how long the research took, we started in 2002 with my college, Morton Hansen, and if I mention that we have been doing research, I won't talk too much about it here, but I'll give you more of a question. But, Morton, is my collaborator, it's H-a-n-s-e-n, so we started the project in 2002.

Thomas D. Gorman: What are you looking at? That's what I'm curious about.

Jim Collins: Well, this is probably, when we finish up, writing at this time, Morton and I have been working very hard on pulling it all together. We finished the research last year and I think for me, in some ways it is the most interesting question that I've had the privilege to be involved with so far. And I think it's because I have always viewed the world as an unstable place, myself, my own upbringing felt unstable, a variety of other things that have made the world seem unstable. And so the premise of this work is that, the rest of our lives will be defined by very high degrees of instability and uncertainty and fast moving big forces out of our control.

Now, let me be very clear, this is very different than talking about recession times, actually, those are easy times to me, if you actually think about which is actually harder, times of uncertainty, instability and fast moving forces that are full of robust opportunity versus uncertain, unstable, fast moving and crisis. Crises are easier to manage, it's fairly clear what you have to do, this is more ambiguous. So, this isn't anything about crisis time versus not.

Thomas D. Gorman: Right.

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