吉姆·柯林斯:在攀巖者眼中,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和波動(dòng)性不完全一樣,。比如,,一旦起霧,舊金山的溫度會(huì)在20分鐘內(nèi)從華氏85度降到52度,。這里有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)嗎,?沒(méi)有,只有很高的波動(dòng)性,,但卻是一種幾乎零風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的情況,。但是,在另一種情況下,,溫度沒(méi)什么波動(dòng),,卻非常寒冷,稍有差池,,你或許會(huì)因此喪命,。所以,你得設(shè)想最壞的結(jié)果,,即便這種情況發(fā)生的可能性極低,。你還得想好怎樣盡你所能防止這種情況發(fā)生。
大多數(shù)人覺(jué)得從事風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件或風(fēng)險(xiǎn)運(yùn)動(dòng)的人是冒險(xiǎn)家,。但其實(shí)不是這樣,。這件事本身雖然危險(xiǎn),但我們一直在努力減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,而這才是冒險(xiǎn)者的樂(lè)趣所在,。你想想巴菲特,他是怎么做的,?還有本杰明·格雷厄姆,,他的安全邊際理論并不是教你計(jì)算波動(dòng)性,而是教你如何控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。格雷厄姆的思維方式就和攀巖者一樣,。或者說(shuō)曾經(jīng)和攀巖者如出一轍,。
如果(投資時(shí))我對(duì)a,、b、c,、d估計(jì)錯(cuò)誤,,而市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了a、b,、c,、d和e,,那么這種情況下我仍然能夠承受的安全邊際在哪里?從攀巖中,,你就可以學(xué)到這樣的思維方式,。攀巖時(shí),速度和安全之間的關(guān)系很有意思,。
我有個(gè)朋友叫漢斯·弗洛林,,他擁有船長(zhǎng)峰攀爬速度世界第一的紀(jì)錄。我們倆有過(guò)一段很有趣的對(duì)話,。船長(zhǎng)峰是一座高3500英尺的懸崖,,第一次爬上去的人,我記得爬了48天,,好幾個(gè)禮拜,。如今爬完船長(zhǎng)峰平均需要三至五天,只有很少人能夠一天里爬完,。但是漢斯只用兩個(gè)多小時(shí),、三小時(shí)不到就爬完了這個(gè)險(xiǎn)峰,速度驚人,。于是我就問(wèn)他了,,你是不是為了爬得快而冒了很大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?他說(shuō):“沒(méi)有,。”實(shí)際上,,他靠降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)提高速度,。他說(shuō):“我們花了大量的時(shí)間和精力準(zhǔn)備‘防護(hù)設(shè)備’。我們有許多固定用的設(shè)備,,這可以讓我們爬得非??欤仨毐WC萬(wàn)無(wú)一失,,才能提高速度,。一旦你摔下去,繩索會(huì)迅速收緊,,把你拉住,。只是和其他裝備比起來(lái),穿戴要多花幾秒鐘,?!彼哉f(shuō)是為了爬得更快而先放慢了速度,因?yàn)橐坏┠慊A(chǔ)打牢了,,就可以爬得更快,。而那些試圖打破他記錄的人卻沒(méi)有使用同樣的安全系統(tǒng)。有意思的是,這些人雖然冒了更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,卻依然沒(méi)能打破他的紀(jì)錄,。這是為什么呢?因?yàn)橛辛税踩?、系統(tǒng)的方法,,你才能獲得超凡的速度。
現(xiàn)在,,我們來(lái)想想應(yīng)用在商業(yè)上的情況,。這是一個(gè)快速變化的世界,你必須找到一個(gè)支點(diǎn),,有敏銳的洞察力,。事實(shí)上,如果你有一個(gè)強(qiáng)大,、安全,、堅(jiān)實(shí)的系統(tǒng),你就能行動(dòng)迅速,。如果你有充足的現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備,,公司就能發(fā)展得更快。所以,,安全,、保守的做法反而能夠增加速度和沖勁。這就是我從攀巖里學(xué)到的另一點(diǎn),。 |
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Jim Collins: But, volatility isn't exactly the same, as a climber would think about risk. The temperature in San Francisco can go from 85 degrees to 52 degrees in 20 minutes when the fog rolls in. Is there any risk? No, it's a high volatility virtually zero risk situation. You could be in another situation that is relatively stable, but it's really cold, and there if you just mismanage it, you could get killed. So, thinking about risk in terms of, what's the real worst case that would happen, even if it's low probability, and how do I make sure that doesn't enter into the set, as much as I can?
Most people think people who do risk events or risk sports, like climbing, are risk takers. No, you're doing something that is inheritably risky, by continually bounding your risk, and that's really the essence. And then you think about a great investor like, Warren Buffet, what does he do? The whole concept of Benjamin Graham’s margin of safety, isn't about volatility, it's about bounding risk. Benjamin Graham thinks like a rock climber, or thought like a rock climber.
Where's my margin of safety that in the event that I'm wrong about a, b, c, d, and markets do a, b, c, d, and e, I'm still ok. Climbing is part of where you learn that. Now, there's a very interesting thing, from climbing, which is the relationship between speed and safety.
And a friend of mine named, Hans Florine, holds the record for the fastest descent of El Capitan. And we had an interesting conversation. El Capitan is a 3,500-foot cliff, when it was first done, I think it took 48 days --, multiple weeks -- to do. Now, it's about a three to five day climb on average, a few do it in a day. But, Hans, had really worked on the speed descent and got it down to two hours, a little under three hours, for the climb. Incredible speed, in an incredibly lethal environmental. I started asking Hans; about basically, did he go faster by increasing his risk? And he said, "No." He went faster by decreasing his risk. And what they focus on, he says, "what we do, is we put a lot of time and energy into building systems that were really 'bomb proof' up there. So, we had these certain things... we put our anchors in such a way that allows us to go really fast, but they were, they had to be, they were kind of fool proof, that you could move quickly through them, and if you fell they would tighten up quickly and they take an extra second, or two, to put on, relative to some other systems, so you're slowing down." So, you slow down to speed up, because once that's there you've got a solid base and then you can go really fast. And those that tried to break his record didn't have the same safety systems. So, what's interesting, the team that tried to beat him, on the cliff, took more risks, but Hans holds the record. Why? Because, safe, systematic approaches enabled tremendous speeds.
Now, think about that relative to business, it's a fast moving world, being able to pivot and being able to really quickly see something. Well, actually if you have a strong, safe, solid, incredibly secure system, you can move fast. If you have great cash reserves, it increases speed. So, safety, conservative, enables speed and aggression. That's something that applies from the climbing.? |