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專欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

純PC廠商可能撤離平板電腦市場(chǎng)

 Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年11月22日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話,。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過(guò),,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò),。要知道,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司,。
臺(tái)灣《電子時(shí)報(bào)》報(bào)道稱,此舉可能將整個(gè)平板市場(chǎng)留給蘋(píng)果,、亞馬遜和Barnes & Noble等豪強(qiáng),。

圖片來(lái)源:公司報(bào)告

????臺(tái)北的《電子時(shí)報(bào)》(DigiTimes)歷來(lái)就是亞洲電子元件產(chǎn)業(yè)種種傳言的源頭,它的記者們打字有多快,,傳言生成的速度就有多快。上周四,,這家媒體報(bào)道稱,,來(lái)自上游供應(yīng)鏈的匿名業(yè)內(nèi)人士認(rèn)為,,惠普(Hewlett-Packard)、戴爾(Dell),、宏碁(Acer)和華碩電腦(Asustek)等PC企業(yè)最終將逐步退出平板電腦市場(chǎng),。

????《電子時(shí)報(bào)》的報(bào)道稱:

????亞馬遜(Amazon)的Kindle Fire售價(jià)199美元,巴諾(Barnes & Noble)即將上市的Nook Simple Touch售價(jià)99美元,,純硬件生產(chǎn)商不太可能通過(guò)價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)上賺取利潤(rùn),。

????鑒于亞馬遜和Barnes & Noble主要靠?jī)?nèi)容平臺(tái)(而非硬件)賺取利潤(rùn),,業(yè)界認(rèn)為這些硬件設(shè)備最終將免費(fèi)提供給消費(fèi)者,。

????這篇報(bào)道的這部分還算言之有理。但最后一部分,,就不那么令人信服了:

????業(yè)者指出,,雖然iPad 2消費(fèi)需求強(qiáng)勁,,但銷量不如iPad一代,,說(shuō)明消費(fèi)者對(duì)平板電腦的狂熱追捧已竟開(kāi)始降溫。

????蘋(píng)果(Apple)是2011年第二財(cái)季末推出的iPad 2,,正如上圖所示,,iPad 2產(chǎn)量一上去,,銷量很快就超過(guò)了iPad一代。

????Taipei-based DigiTimes, which has been churning out rumors from Asian electronics parts suppliers as fast as its correspondents can type, reported Thursday that unnamed "sources from upstream supply chain" believe that PC makers such as Hewlett-Packard (HPC), Dell (DELL), Acer and Asustek will "gradually phase out" of the tablet market.

????According to DigiTimes:

????With Amazon offering its Kindle Fire at US$199 and Barnes & Noble to provide its upcoming Nook Simple Touch at a price of US$99, the pure hardware players are unlikely to profit from the market through price competition.

????Since Amazon and Barnes & Noble are mainly profiting from their content platforms, not the hardware, the sources believe these hardware devices will eventually be offered for free.

????This part of the DigiTimes' report makes sense. The last part, not so much:

????The sources pointed out that although iPad 2 is also seeing strong demand from consumers, sales were lower than those of iPad, indicating that consumers' strong enthusiasm for tablet PCs has already disappeared.

????As the chart above shows, once Apple (AAPL) got production ramped up after the iPad 2's release at the end of fiscal Q2 2011, its sales quickly eclipsed those for the original iPad.

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