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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

純PC廠商可能撤離平板電腦市場

 Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年11月22日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話,。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯,。要知道,,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司,。
臺灣《電子時報》報道稱,,此舉可能將整個平板市場留給蘋果,、亞馬遜和Barnes & Noble等豪強,。

圖片來源:公司報告

????臺北的《電子時報》(DigiTimes)歷來就是亞洲電子元件產(chǎn)業(yè)種種傳言的源頭,,它的記者們打字有多快,傳言生成的速度就有多快,。上周四,這家媒體報道稱,,來自上游供應(yīng)鏈的匿名業(yè)內(nèi)人士認(rèn)為,,惠普(Hewlett-Packard)、戴爾(Dell),、宏碁(Acer)和華碩電腦(Asustek)等PC企業(yè)最終將逐步退出平板電腦市場,。

????《電子時報》的報道稱:

????亞馬遜(Amazon)的Kindle Fire售價199美元,巴諾(Barnes & Noble)即將上市的Nook Simple Touch售價99美元,,純硬件生產(chǎn)商不太可能通過價格競爭在這個市場上賺取利潤。

????鑒于亞馬遜和Barnes & Noble主要靠內(nèi)容平臺(而非硬件)賺取利潤,,業(yè)界認(rèn)為這些硬件設(shè)備最終將免費提供給消費者,。

????這篇報道的這部分還算言之有理。但最后一部分,,就不那么令人信服了:

????業(yè)者指出,,雖然iPad 2消費需求強勁,,但銷量不如iPad一代,,說明消費者對平板電腦的狂熱追捧已竟開始降溫,。

????蘋果(Apple)是2011年第二財季末推出的iPad 2,,正如上圖所示,iPad 2產(chǎn)量一上去,,銷量很快就超過了iPad一代,。

????Taipei-based DigiTimes, which has been churning out rumors from Asian electronics parts suppliers as fast as its correspondents can type, reported Thursday that unnamed "sources from upstream supply chain" believe that PC makers such as Hewlett-Packard (HPC), Dell (DELL), Acer and Asustek will "gradually phase out" of the tablet market.

????According to DigiTimes:

????With Amazon offering its Kindle Fire at US$199 and Barnes & Noble to provide its upcoming Nook Simple Touch at a price of US$99, the pure hardware players are unlikely to profit from the market through price competition.

????Since Amazon and Barnes & Noble are mainly profiting from their content platforms, not the hardware, the sources believe these hardware devices will eventually be offered for free.

????This part of the DigiTimes' report makes sense. The last part, not so much:

????The sources pointed out that although iPad 2 is also seeing strong demand from consumers, sales were lower than those of iPad, indicating that consumers' strong enthusiasm for tablet PCs has already disappeared.

????As the chart above shows, once Apple (AAPL) got production ramped up after the iPad 2's release at the end of fiscal Q2 2011, its sales quickly eclipsed those for the original iPad.

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