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????“蘋果每進(jìn)入一個(gè)市場(chǎng)，就重塑一個(gè)市場(chǎng),?！蓖顿Y銀行Piper Jaffray的分析師吉恩?明斯特在周二致客戶的報(bào)告中重申了他再三重復(fù)的信念，即蘋果公司（Apple）的下一個(gè)力作將是蘋果品牌的電視機(jī),。

????誠(chéng)然,，明斯特已經(jīng)調(diào)低了自己的期望值,。此前，他曾預(yù)測(cè),，蘋果公司將在2009年銷售660萬臺(tái)蘋果電視機(jī)頂盒,，并在2011年推出完全成熟的電視機(jī)。到蘋果公司2011財(cái)年,，蘋果電視的年銷量仍然不足300萬臺(tái),。然而，2011年來了又走了,，蒙斯特近四年來一直在鼓吹的蘋果電視機(jī)還是遲遲沒有現(xiàn)身,。

????這份報(bào)告的新意在于，明斯特在報(bào)告中提到,，上月曾與某“電視部件主要供應(yīng)商”交談,，對(duì)方聲稱蘋果公司曾與其接洽，談及“其電視顯示組件的各種功能”,。聯(lián)系到去年曾有報(bào)告稱,，蘋果正大力投資于生產(chǎn)設(shè)施，以打造50英寸液晶屏幕,，并稱蘋果電視機(jī)原型正在開發(fā)中,。有鑒于此，蒙斯特相信,，蘋果正蓄勢(shì)待發(fā),，準(zhǔn)備進(jìn)入所謂的聯(lián)網(wǎng)電視市場(chǎng)，目標(biāo)是在2012年晚些時(shí)候推出,。

????不過明斯特承認(rèn),，時(shí)間表“目前仍無法確定?！?/p>

????明斯特補(bǔ)充道：“我們認(rèn)為蘋果只會(huì)進(jìn)入成熟行業(yè)并重塑這個(gè)行業(yè),，智能手機(jī)就是一個(gè)例子。沒有看到完善的電視節(jié)目方案之前,，我們認(rèn)為蘋果不會(huì)貿(mào)然闖進(jìn)電視行業(yè),。”

????完善的電視節(jié)目方案是什么,？明斯特設(shè)想了三種可能：（以下為原文引用）

????1.對(duì)蘋果而言,，最簡(jiǎn)單的方案莫過于和多業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)營(yíng)商合作（MSO，例如有線電視公司）,，讓蘋果電視具備統(tǒng)一接口以管理用戶的實(shí)況電視服務(wù),，這和TiVo（美國(guó)的一種數(shù)字錄像機(jī)，提供電視導(dǎo)航功能——譯注）的做法很像。早在蘋果開發(fā)iPhone時(shí),，許多投資者就預(yù)期蘋果會(huì)成為一家移動(dòng)虛擬網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營(yíng)商,。但蘋果卻選擇了與美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司（AT&T，當(dāng)時(shí)是Cingular）合作,，來將iPhone推向美國(guó)市場(chǎng),。同樣，為了降低成本,，節(jié)約資源，蘋果這次還是可以選擇與多業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)營(yíng)商合作以切入實(shí)況電視市場(chǎng),，使蘋果電視具備實(shí)況轉(zhuǎn)播,、有線電視等功能。雖然這項(xiàng)方案最簡(jiǎn)單,，可能性也最大,，但其變革相對(duì)也是最小的。從技術(shù)角度,，該方案與目前TiVo所具備的功能很像：與多業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)營(yíng)商合作,，向觀眾提供統(tǒng)一的數(shù)字錄像/節(jié)目導(dǎo)航軟件接口，讓搜索和發(fā)現(xiàn)節(jié)目變得更為便利,。在某種程度上,，蘋果能夠推出的最與眾不同的東西是聯(lián)網(wǎng)電視軟件。因此,，對(duì)電視市場(chǎng)而言,，該方案仍能帶來一款令人耳目一新的產(chǎn)品。當(dāng)然,，蘋果也許還會(huì)將iTunes的電影租賃和購買服務(wù)也補(bǔ)充到蘋果電視中,。

????"Apple enters markets to reinvent them," wrote Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster in a note to clients Tuesday reiterating his oft-repeated conviction that Apple's (AAPL) next big thing is an Apple-branded television set.

????To be sure, Munster has scaled back his expectations since he predicted that the company would sell 6.6 million Apple TV set-top boxes in 2009 and launch a full-blown TV set in 2011. By fiscal 2011, Apple was still selling fewer than 3 million Apple TVs a year, and calendar 2011 came and went without the television set whose drum Munster has been beating for nearly four years.

????The new data point in his Tuesday note is a conversation Munster had last month with a "major TV component supplier" who said it had been contacted by Apple "regarding various capabilities of their television display components." Putting this together with reports last year that Apple was investing heavily in manufacturing facilities to build 50-inch LCD screens and that prototypes of an Apple television were in the works, Munster remains confident that Apple is poised to enter the so-called connected TV market, targeting a late 2012 launch.

????But the timing, he concedes, "remains uncertain."

????"We believe that Apple only enters mature markets with the goal of revolutionizing them, as it did with the smartphone," he writes, adding: "Without a revamped TV content solution, we do not think Apple enters the TV market."

????What might a revamped TV content solution look like? Munster offers three scenarios: (I quote)

????1. Apple could simply enable its television to manage a consumer's live TV service from within a unified interface much like TiVo does, partnering with MSOs [i.e. the cable companies]. As Apple was developing the iPhone many investors expected the company to become an MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator). Instead, the company partnered with AT&T (then Cingular) to bring the iPhone to market in the U.S. Similarly, Apple could choose to avoid the cost and effort of entering the live TV services business and simply partner with MSOs to deliver live, cable TV to the Apple Television. While this would be the easiest and most likely option, it would also be the least revolutionary. Technically, this option would function much like TiVo does today: partnering with MSOs and offering a unified DVR/guidance software interface to make search and discovery easier for the viewer. In some ways, a connected TV's software is the biggest differentiator that Apple can bring to the table, so this option could still result in a new and fresh product for the television market. Apple could also supplement this with its iTunes Movie rental and purchase service directly on the television.