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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

蘋果電視機(jī)今年問(wèn)世,?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年02月03日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話,。蘋果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過(guò),,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò),。要知道,,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司,。
硬件非常簡(jiǎn)單,。難點(diǎn)在于如何說(shuō)服好萊塢進(jìn)駐電視熒屏。

????2.蘋果電視還能選擇和電視網(wǎng)絡(luò)頻道以及其它互聯(lián)網(wǎng)視頻提供商合作提供實(shí)況電視節(jié)目,。折衷的方案是,蘋果(利用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)或無(wú)線網(wǎng)絡(luò)),,通過(guò)電視網(wǎng)絡(luò)頻道提供實(shí)況電視節(jié)目,。然后蘋果可以為蘋果電視開(kāi)發(fā)一個(gè)新的應(yīng)用程序商店,作為其基本電視功能的補(bǔ)充,。在線影碟租賃公司Netflix,、視頻網(wǎng)站Hulu Plus以及其他內(nèi)容提供商都可以在其中開(kāi)發(fā)自己的應(yīng)用程序。在這種模式下,,蘋果很有可能會(huì)繼續(xù)通過(guò)iTunes商店,,向蘋果電視提供iTunes中的電影和電視內(nèi)容。

????3.最后,蘋果還能與內(nèi)容提供商合作,,提供一項(xiàng)基于自選節(jié)目的月度訂閱打包方案,。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),如果蘋果真的打算控制整個(gè)電視體驗(yàn),,這是其中最具挑戰(zhàn)性的一個(gè)方案,,也就是說(shuō),它必須成為一家虛擬多業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)營(yíng)商,,使用戶能按月訂閱實(shí)時(shí)電視服務(wù),。當(dāng)初,蘋果在進(jìn)軍智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)時(shí),,它并沒(méi)有選擇這樣做,。按照內(nèi)容供應(yīng)商和服務(wù)提供商之間現(xiàn)行的授權(quán)協(xié)議,這個(gè)方案在媒體也內(nèi)不可能實(shí)現(xiàn),。而且,,它也超出了蘋果核心競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的覆蓋范圍,。也就是說(shuō),,這個(gè)方案將會(huì)使蘋果控制整個(gè)用戶體驗(yàn),而且很可能開(kāi)發(fā)出許多全新的功能,,它們將是目前所有電視服務(wù)提供商和電子產(chǎn)品制造商都無(wú)法提供的新功能,。

????我們的看法?電視機(jī)誰(shuí)都能造,,盡管蘋果可能已經(jīng)購(gòu)買了更出色的屏幕技術(shù),。整頓電視機(jī)混亂的用戶界面恰恰就是蘋果的強(qiáng)項(xiàng)。蘋果的iCloud和iTunes商店可能使其更具優(yōu)勢(shì),,但目前來(lái)看,,電視觀眾似乎并不急于付費(fèi)點(diǎn)播電視節(jié)目。然而,,最大的未知數(shù)在于,,蒂姆?庫(kù)克或埃迪?庫(kù)爾能否說(shuō)服好萊塢簽署關(guān)于內(nèi)容的協(xié)議。要知道,,史蒂夫?喬布斯在其有生之年一直未能如愿以償,。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????2. Apple could offer access to live TV from network channels in combination with other web-based video services. One middle-of-the-road option could be for Apple to deliver live TV from network channels (either over the internet or over the air) to the Apple Television. Apple could then leverage a new App Store for the Apple Television to supplement the basic live TV features with Netflix, Hulu Plus, or any content provider that chooses to build an app for the television. In this instance, Apple would also likely continue to offer its iTunes movie and TV content through the iTunes store to the Apple Television.

????3. Apple could offer monthly subscriptions, on an a-la-carte basis, for live TV packages with content from content providers. Clearly the most challenging option, if Apple truly wanted to control the entire television experience - which, again, the company chose not to do when entering the smartphone market - it would have to become a virtual MSO (Multiple Services Provider) and offer monthly subscriptions for live TV services. Such an offering would be unlikely given existing licensing arrangements between content providers and service providers as well as the fact that it lies outside of Apple's core competencies, even in media. That said, it would enable the company to control the entire experience and possibly deliver new features that are currently unavailable through existing television service providers and CE device makers.

????Our take? Anybody can build a TV set, although Apple may have bought itself access to better screen technologies. Fixing TV's broken user interface is right in Apple's wheel house. Apple's iCloud and iTunes store might give it an edge, but TV viewers so far haven't seemed terribly eager to buy TV shows a la carte. The biggest unknown is whether Tim Cook or Eddy Cue can talk Hollywood into signing the kind of content deals Steve Jobs was never, in his lifetime, able to get.

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