分析師預(yù)測蘋果今年將推廉價(jià)iPhone
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????蘋果（Apple）即將推出iPhone 5S，至于時(shí)間,？6月,，7月，或者9月之前都有可能,。蘋果還將同時(shí)推出一款廉價(jià)版iPhone,，當(dāng)然，時(shí)間也可能在9月后,?？傊陨暇褪侨环治鰩熥龀龅念A(yù)測,。至于說他們預(yù)測的依據(jù)何在,，還是讓他們自己來講吧。三人原話如下： ????加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）分析師阿米特?德萊納尼：“通過對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈的考察,，我們確定蘋果將在今年第二季度或第三季度初同時(shí)發(fā)布兩款手機(jī)：iPhone 5S,，以及低端廉價(jià)版iPhone。低端iPhone的屏幕和iPhone 5一樣,，都為4英寸,，不過外殼材質(zhì)是塑料，而且不支持視網(wǎng)膜高清顯示,。雖然這款產(chǎn)品的毛利率可能低于iPhone 5和iPhone 5S,，但它有望提升蘋果公司38%的整體毛利率。所以,，我們預(yù)測低端iPhone在2014年有望為蘋果貢獻(xiàn)220億美元營收,，并使每股收益增加5美元。蘋果股價(jià)有望因此上漲超過50美元,?！?/p> ????投資銀行Cannacord分析師邁克爾?沃克利：“我們最初預(yù)測蘋果將于今年6月發(fā)布iPhone5S。不過經(jīng)過對(duì)手機(jī)市場的分析以及與供應(yīng)商的討論,，我們最終確定這一時(shí)間為今年夏天或第三季度,。此外，大量極其出色的高端Android智能手機(jī)新近上市,，有望在2013年第二季度熱賣,，因此我們認(rèn)為蘋果的市場份額在2013年上半年將有所下滑,。有鑒于此，我們下調(diào)了對(duì)iPhone在2013財(cái)年第三季度的銷量預(yù)測,。我們還確信,，蘋果將發(fā)布一款更具價(jià)格優(yōu)勢的中端iPhone，以更好地切入以預(yù)付費(fèi)為主的國際市場,。據(jù)此我們已經(jīng)調(diào)整了蘋果2014財(cái)年預(yù)測以及平均售價(jià)預(yù)測,。” ????瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）分析師庫彼得?格切：“根據(jù)我們與亞洲團(tuán)隊(duì)的接觸,，我們認(rèn)為蘋果在今年年中時(shí)不但會(huì)推出新的iPhone 5,，而且還將推出一款專門定制的低端iPhone。我們認(rèn)為,，總體而言,，這是一個(gè)利好，因?yàn)樗芫S持收入和凈利潤增長（有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)我們對(duì)2013和2014財(cái)年分別為44.92和54.03美元的每股收入預(yù)期）,，以及應(yīng)對(duì)來自Android和三星（Samsung）的銷量和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)競爭威脅,，同時(shí)繼續(xù)提高蘋果手機(jī)的裝機(jī)量?！?/p> ????這樣的預(yù)測對(duì)蘋果的用戶以及其競爭者意味著什么,？要回答這個(gè)問題，我推薦閱讀iMore上雷內(nèi)?里奇的大作《iPhone 5S問題》,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：項(xiàng)航 |
????Apple (AAPL) will launch the iPhone 5S in June or July or before September. The company will launch a lower-priced iPhone simultaneously or maybe after September. ????Anyway, that's what these three analysts predict based on ... well, I'll let them tell you themselves. In their own words: ????RBC's Amit Daryanani: "Our supply-chain checks indicate that... AAPL will launch the iPhone5s and a more affordable but lower-end iPhone at the same time, in either late CYQ2 or early Q3. The low-end iPhone will have the same 4" form factor as the iPhone5 but will have plastic casing and no retina display... The product may have lower GMs than iPhone5/5s but should be accretive to AAPL's corporate GMs of 38%. Hence, we estimate this could contribute $22B in revenues and $5.00+ in EPS in CY14E, which suggests the product could be worth $50+ to AAPL's stock price." ????Cannacord's T. Michael Walkley: "Based on our handset market analysis and discussions with suppliers, we believe Apple could launch a refreshed iPhone 5S this summer or during Q3/C2013 versus our initial expectation for a launch in June. Further, with a host of impressive recently launched high-end Android smartphones expected to ramp in Q2/C2013, we believe Apple could lose smartphone market share during 1H/C2013 and have reduced our Q3/F2013 iPhone estimates... We also believe Apple will launch a more competitively priced mid-tier iPhone for pre-paid international markets and have adjusted our F2014 estimates and ASP assumptions." ????Credit Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha: "Our checks in conjunction with our Asian team point to Apple not only refreshing the iPhone 5 mid-year but also a specifically targeted low-end iPhone. We believe in aggregate this a positive as it can sustain top and bottom line growth (giving upside to our FY13/14 EPS of $44.92/$54.03), deal with the competitive ecosystem and volume threat from Android/Samsung and continue to drive growth in Apple's installed base." ????What do such predictions mean for Apple's customers and competitors? For that analysis, I recommend Rene Ritche's The "iPhone 5S" problem on iMore. |
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