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專(zhuān)欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

蘋(píng)果iPhone為什么敢賣(mài)這么貴,?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年09月16日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話(huà),那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周?chē)且黄艾F(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話(huà),,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話(huà),。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶(hù)中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿(mǎn)缽滿(mǎn),。不過(guò),,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò),。要知道,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司,。
蘋(píng)果新款iPhone的定價(jià)超出了很多人的預(yù)期,甚至此前預(yù)測(cè)的廉價(jià)版iPhone 5c也賣(mài)到了549美元,。蘋(píng)果為什么敢賣(mài)這么貴,?知名行業(yè)分析師賀拉斯?德迪歐揭示了其中的秘密:iPhone其實(shí)是數(shù)據(jù)服務(wù)推銷(xiāo)員。買(mǎi)了iPhone,,用戶(hù)就會(huì)更多地使用更賺錢(qián)的數(shù)據(jù)業(yè)務(wù),,因此運(yùn)營(yíng)商愿意先替消費(fèi)者墊付超高的溢價(jià)。

????

????為什么蘋(píng)果iPhone定價(jià)這么高——比如新款iPhone 5C的定價(jià)為549美元,,而大多數(shù)分析師此前預(yù)期這款手機(jī)的售價(jià)會(huì)介于300美元至400美元之間。簡(jiǎn)短的回答是:因?yàn)樘O(píng)果有資本這么干,。

????賀拉斯?德迪歐在其Asmyco博客上寫(xiě)道:“如果可以的話(huà),,任何人都會(huì)這么干。這是一個(gè)很蹩腳的問(wèn)題,,因此,,正確的問(wèn)題應(yīng)該是:為什么有人愿意支付這么高的價(jià)格呢? ”

????德迪歐的回答在很大程度上揭示了手機(jī)行業(yè)(事實(shí)上乃至整個(gè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì))的相關(guān)運(yùn)營(yíng)方式,。他的關(guān)鍵要點(diǎn)如下:

????? 大體而言,,消費(fèi)者并沒(méi)有支付這些高昂的價(jià)格。支付全價(jià)的是那些移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商—— 270家手機(jī)運(yùn)營(yíng)商,。

????? 運(yùn)營(yíng)商在做出是否銷(xiāo)售iPhone的決定時(shí),,考慮的不是時(shí)尚或狂熱粉絲這些因素,,而是確鑿的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)實(shí)——每用戶(hù)平均收入(ARPU)、客戶(hù)流失,、網(wǎng)絡(luò)費(fèi)用,、折舊、投資回報(bào)率等,。

????? 對(duì)于許多運(yùn)營(yíng)商(約三分之二)而言,,iPhone并不適合自己的商業(yè)模式。威瑞森公司(Verizon)多年來(lái)一直拒絕接受iPhone,。DoCoMo剛剛開(kāi)始接受iPhone,。中國(guó)移動(dòng)(China Mobile)可能很快也會(huì)接受iPhone。

????? 追逐利潤(rùn),,德迪歐的結(jié)論是,,運(yùn)營(yíng)商之所以向蘋(píng)果支付如此昂貴的價(jià)格,是因?yàn)閕Phone有助于讓用戶(hù)升級(jí)到收入更高的數(shù)據(jù)業(yè)務(wù),。

????? 他寫(xiě)道:“對(duì)于運(yùn)營(yíng)商而言,,這些是利潤(rùn)更高的業(yè)務(wù)。而且補(bǔ)貼模式能夠創(chuàng)造更高的忠誠(chéng)度,,從而降低客戶(hù)流失率,,建立一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的現(xiàn)金流,然后就可以借助這些現(xiàn)金流進(jìn)行債務(wù)融資,,用以網(wǎng)絡(luò)升級(jí),,同時(shí)吸引更多忠實(shí)的iPhone用戶(hù)?!?/p>

????? 好處還不止于此。消費(fèi)者每月支付的手機(jī)費(fèi)會(huì)水漲船高,,最終支付iPhone大部分溢價(jià)的是消費(fèi)者自己,。這些并沒(méi)有逐項(xiàng)列在發(fā)票上,但德迪歐估計(jì),,在一個(gè)補(bǔ)貼計(jì)劃中,,每月賬單上有10美元到15美元用于支付iPhone費(fèi)用。

????? 德迪歐寫(xiě)道:“因此,,在某種程度上,,蘋(píng)果已經(jīng)成功地把自己列在許多iPhone用戶(hù)的手機(jī)月賬單上。手機(jī)月賬單是隱藏iPhone費(fèi)用的一個(gè)的地方,?!?/p>

????? 有些消費(fèi)者把付費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)嫁視為一種不加掩飾的欺騙,有誤導(dǎo)之嫌,。對(duì)于用戶(hù)而言,,iPhone的價(jià)值顯而易見(jiàn),但為iPhone的價(jià)值所支付的費(fèi)用卻不是如此。

????? 德迪歐寫(xiě)道:“事實(shí)上,,整個(gè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)以及基于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的所有商業(yè)計(jì)劃都依賴(lài)于一種微妙的‘占便宜’式的誤導(dǎo),。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)在兩個(gè)不同的市場(chǎng)之間進(jìn)行套利,,一個(gè)是每個(gè)人都消費(fèi)但沒(méi)有人付費(fèi)的消費(fèi)者服務(wù)市場(chǎng),,另一個(gè)是沒(méi)有人消費(fèi)但所有人都付費(fèi)的數(shù)據(jù)市場(chǎng)?!?/p>

????

????The short answer for why Apple (AAPL) charges so much for its iPhones -- e.g. $549 for the new iPhone 5C that most analysts expected would sell for somewhere between $300 and $400 -- is that it can.

????"Anybody would if they could," writes Horace Dediu on his Asmyco blog. "That's a poor question. So the right question should be: why does anybody pay this much?"

????Dediu's answer reveals much about underlying workings of the mobile phone business -- and indeed, the whole Internet economy. His key points:

????? Consumers, by and large, aren't paying those high prices. It's the operators -- 270 mobile phone carriers -- who pay the full freight.

????? The decisions operators make on whether to carry the iPhone are driven not by fashion or fanboyism, but by hard economic realities: ARPU, churn, network costs, depreciation, ROI, etc.

????? For many operators -- about two thirds of them -- the iPhone doesn't fit their business model. Verizon held out for years. DoCoMo just came around. China Mobile may soon as well.

????? Following the money, Dediu concludes that the operators who pay Apple's steep prices do so because the iPhone helps move users to higher revenue data services.

????? "These are more profitable services for operators," he writes, "and the subsidy model creates more loyalty and thus reduces churn and creates a stable cash flow which can then be leveraged through debt to upgrade networks and attract yet more loyal iPhone users."

????? But that's not the end of the money trail. Consumers end up paying most of the iPhone premium in the form of higher monthly phone bills. It's not itemized in the invoice, but Dediu estimates that $10 to $15 of every monthly bill in a subsidized plan goes to paying for the phone.

????? "So in a way," Dediu writes, "Apple has managed to place itself on many people's monthly phone bills. It's a nice place to be."

????? Some consumers see that transfer of payment as a thinly veiled con. It smacks of misdirection. The value of the iPhone is apparent to the user, but the payment for that value is not.

????? "In fact the whole Internet and all business plans that are built on it depend on a subtle 'something for nothing' type of misdirection," Dediu writes. "The Internet runs on the arbitrage between a consumer service market where everybody consumes but nobody pays and a separate data market where nobody consumes and everybody pays."

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