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????美國投資銀行Needham的查理?伍爾夫跟蹤蘋果（Apple）公司多年,，一直關(guān)注Mac電腦的銷售業(yè)績*,。Mac電腦是蘋果公司歷史最悠久的一條產(chǎn)品線,，截至今年一月，Mac在市場(chǎng)上已經(jīng)盤踞了30個(gè)年頭,。本周二,，伍爾夫表示,，Mac（的銷量）似乎已經(jīng)“一落千丈”。同時(shí),，他還嘗試解釋了出現(xiàn)這種情況的原因,。

????自2005年開始，連續(xù)26個(gè)季度,，Mac電腦的銷量增長都超過行業(yè)的總體增長率,。幾乎在同一時(shí)期，蘋果在全球個(gè)人電腦市場(chǎng)的份額在7年半內(nèi)從2.1%增至5.3%（漲幅達(dá)152%）,，而它獲得的利潤占全球市場(chǎng)利潤總額的比例也從3.2%增加到11.9%（漲幅高達(dá)272%）,。

????但好景在今年1月嘎然而止。由于蘋果未能提供足夠的最新款iMac電腦,，市場(chǎng)上出現(xiàn)了供不應(yīng)求的局面,。該季度Mac電腦銷量下降了22.1％，而同期全球個(gè)人電腦總銷量降幅只有6.6％,。

????因此,，在本文所附的圖表中，2012年四季度Mac的發(fā)貨量呈現(xiàn)V字形,。蒂姆?庫克也承認(rèn),，這次確實(shí)是搞砸了。不過,，對(duì)于這次偶發(fā)事件,，伍爾夫倒不大擔(dān)心，他擔(dān)心的是這次事件前后幾個(gè)季度的銷售情況,。

????目前,，Mac的銷售情況仍然優(yōu)于整個(gè)市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)，但也只是勉強(qiáng)好一點(diǎn),，而且它的銷量也在下降,，只不過下降得比其他公司緩慢一點(diǎn)。

????個(gè)人電腦銷量下降的原因已經(jīng)不是什么秘密,。這個(gè)市場(chǎng)基本已經(jīng)飽和，而且用戶大都將購買新品的預(yù)算花到了智能手機(jī)和平板電腦上,。

????比較難以解釋的是,，Mac此前的銷量增速比業(yè)界平均水平要高出20%到30%，為什么現(xiàn)在他銷量下降的速度幾乎與平均水平一致,。

????伍爾夫承認(rèn),，對(duì)于這個(gè)問題，他也沒有現(xiàn)成的答案,，不過,，他提供了兩種理論：

????? 光環(huán)效應(yīng)減退,。本文所附圖表中,，倒V字形表明光環(huán)效應(yīng)最強(qiáng)的時(shí)期,。彼時(shí)正值Windows用戶紛紛到蘋果商店選購iPod,、iPhone或是iPad,，使得Mac的銷量也因此水漲船高,。伍爾夫?qū)懙溃骸癕ac最初是靠蘋果公司其它產(chǎn)品的光環(huán)效應(yīng)打開市場(chǎng),。但最終令Mac大賣的還是這個(gè)產(chǎn)品自身的優(yōu)勢(shì)，包括易于使用,、出色的設(shè)計(jì)，以及蘋果商店免費(fèi)提供售后支持等,?！辈贿^，情況現(xiàn)在正在發(fā)生變化,。伍爾夫說：“這種光環(huán)效應(yīng)可能已經(jīng)開始減退。iPad的出現(xiàn)對(duì)Mac銷量的影響要大于對(duì)個(gè)人電腦銷量的影響……那些前往蘋果商店購買Mac的顧客,，可能最終轉(zhuǎn)而購買了iPad,。”??????????

????Needham's Charlie Wolf has been following Apple (AAPL) long enough to still care what's happening to the Mac,* and on Tuesday he took a crack at explaining why the company's most venerable product line (it turns 30 in January) seems to have, as he puts it, "fallen back to earth."

????Beginning in 2005, and for 26 quarters in a row, Mac sales outgrew the industry -- nearly coinciding with a 7.5-year stretch in which Apple's share of the worldwide PC market increased from 2.1% to 5.3% (152%) and its revenue share rose from 3.2% to 11.9% (272%).

????That streak ended abruptly in January, when Apple couldn't deliver the newest iMacs in sufficient quantities to meet demand. Mac sales fell 22.1% in a quarter in which the broader market fell 6.6%.

????Wolf is less concerned with that one-time event -- which Tim Cook admitted was a screw-up and which appears in the attached chart as a sharp V at calendar Q4 2012 -- as he is with what happened for several quarters before and after.

????The Mac is still outpacing the industry, but just barely and only because its sales are falling more slowly than everybody else's.

????Why PC sales growth has collapsed is no mystery. The market is largely saturated and most of the money for new purchases is being funneled into smartphones and tablets.

????Harder to explain is why the Mac, which used to outgrow the industry by 20% to 30%, is now shrinking at nearly the same rate.

????Wolf confesses that he has no "ready explanation," but he does offer a couple of theories:

????? Fading halo effect. The big spikes in the attached chart represent the full force of the so-called halo effect by which the Mac benefitted from Windows users coming into Apple Stores to buy first the iPod, then the iPhone and iPad. "While the halo effect opened the door," Wolf writes, "we believe the superiority of Macs in ease of use, design and in free post-sale support in the Apple Stores blew the door off." That's changing now, he suggests. "It's possible that the halo effect has lost some of its luster in the sense that the emergence of the iPad has impacted Mac sales more than PC sales... Customers who visited an Apple Store to buy a Mac might have been swayed to buy an iPad instead."??????????????????