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????老派高論一度認(rèn)為，蘋(píng)果公司（Apple）在市場(chǎng)上不管取得了什么優(yōu)勢(shì),，注定都是曇花一現(xiàn)而已,。眾多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手所授權(quán)的廣泛分布、無(wú)處不在的操作系統(tǒng)——來(lái)自微軟公司（Microsoft）或谷歌公司（Google）——很快就會(huì)削弱蘋(píng)果公司的高昂定價(jià),，奪取其市場(chǎng)份額,。眼前就有現(xiàn)成的例子：Android手機(jī)軍團(tuán)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)占據(jù)了全球智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)約50%的份額。

????新派高論——來(lái)自上周末發(fā)表的兩篇報(bào)道——?jiǎng)t認(rèn)為,，在未來(lái)一段時(shí)間里,，在兩大最火熱的市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)域，蘋(píng)果公司的眾多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者們恐怕得一直含垢忍辱,，仰視庫(kù)比蒂諾（Cupertino,，蘋(píng)果公司總部所在地——譯注）。

????辛迪?約翰遜在彩衣傻瓜股票論壇（Motley Fool）上撰文發(fā)問(wèn)《難道平板電腦就要成為一騎絕塵的比賽了嗎,？》（Are Tablets Becoming a One-Horse Race?）接著她引用了英偉達(dá)公司（Nvidia）首席執(zhí)行官黃仁勛的一段話來(lái)自問(wèn)自答,。這段話闡述了黃仁勛對(duì)Android平板電腦銷售不敵iPad的見(jiàn)解：

????“這個(gè)問(wèn)題事關(guān)賣(mài)點(diǎn)。事關(guān)零售專業(yè)技巧,。事關(guān)面向消費(fèi)者的營(yíng)銷,。事關(guān)價(jià)格?！比ツ?月,，科技資訊網(wǎng)CNET的作者布魯克?克羅瑟斯引述了這段話。他認(rèn)為,，這些還只是小問(wèn)題,。

????與此同時(shí)，杰森?克洛斯在《微電腦世界》（PC World）上撰文總結(jié)超輕薄筆記本電腦市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀,，題為《Windows系統(tǒng)筆記本電腦無(wú)法趕上蘋(píng)果超薄筆記本電腦》（Windows Laptop Makers Can't Catch Up to the MacBook Air.）,。他指出，索尼公司（Sony）和戴爾公司（Dell）早在蘋(píng)果公司推出Air很早以前就推出過(guò)超薄的筆記本電腦,。它們就像第一代Air一樣,，定價(jià)高昂，電池續(xù)航能力不足,。因此它們銷售慘淡,，很快就銷聲匿跡。而蘋(píng)果公司則堅(jiān)持了下來(lái),?？寺逅狗Q，第四代Air已成為“年度必選筆記本電腦”,，而索尼,、戴爾、惠普和其他公司則在苦苦追趕。

????他寫(xiě)道：“今年秋天,，還會(huì)有其他模仿者覬覦超薄筆記本電腦的寶座,。有華碩（Asus）的UX51，宏基（Acer）的Aspire 3951,。還有傳言說(shuō)惠普也會(huì)很快推出超薄筆記本電腦,。這些電腦的共同點(diǎn)是什么呢？它們都來(lái)晚了,?！?/p>

????換言之，iPad和蘋(píng)果超薄筆記本電腦也許不太會(huì)像當(dāng)初的蘋(píng)果Mac電腦,，而更像當(dāng)初的iPod,。蘋(píng)果Mac電腦問(wèn)世時(shí)聲勢(shì)驚人，最終卻在臺(tái)式機(jī)大戰(zhàn)中敗下陣來(lái),。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????The old conventional wisdom was that any advantage Apple (AAPL) gained in the marketplace was necessarily short-lived. Competitors licensing widely available operating systems -- from Microsoft (MSFT) or Google (GOOG) -- would soon undercut Apple's premium pricing and steal its market share. Case in point: The army of Android phones that now commands roughly 50% of the world's smartphone market.

????The new conventional wisdom -- captured by a pair of stories published over the weekend -- is that Apple's competitors may be eating Cupertino's dust in two of the hottest market categories for some time to come.

????In The Motley Fool, Cindy Johnson asks "Are Tablets Becoming a One-Horse Race?" and answers her own question by quoting Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang on why Android tablets aren't selling well against the iPad:

????"It's a point of sales problem. It's an expertise at retail problem. It's a marketing problem to consumers. It is a price point problem." And that, according to CNET's Brooke Crothers, who nabbed the quote last May, is just for starters.

????Meanwhile, over at PC World, Jason Cross summarizes the situation in the ultra-lightweight computer market with a piece entitled "Windows Laptop Makers Can't Catch Up to the MacBook Air." He points out that Sony (SNE) and Dell (DELL) both brought out razor-thin notebooks long before Apple launched the Air. Like the first-generation Air they were overpriced and lacked sufficient battery life. They didn't sell and were summarily killed. Apple, however, persisted. According to Cross, the fourth-generation Air has become "the must-have laptop of the year," and Sony, Dell, HP and the rest are scrambling to catch up.

????"There are other pretenders to the ultrabook throne coming this fall," he writes. "There's the Asus UX51, and the Acer Aspire 3951. Rumor has it HP will unveil an ultrabook soon. What do all these systems have in common? They're too late."

????In other words, the iPad and the MacBook Air may be less like the original Mac -- which had the buzz but lost the desktop wars -- and more like the original iPod.