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專(zhuān)欄 - 蘋(píng)果2_0

地圖:蘋(píng)果進(jìn)軍第三世界的最大障礙是什么

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年05月08日

蘋(píng)果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周?chē)且黄艾F(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話,。蘋(píng)果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶(hù)中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋(píng)果投資者也賺得盆滿(mǎn)缽滿(mǎn)。不過(guò),,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋(píng)果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò),。要知道,,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋(píng)果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司,。
制約蘋(píng)果在發(fā)展中國(guó)家普及的主要因素可能并不是iPhone價(jià)格,,而是移動(dòng)寬帶的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,印度就是一個(gè)例子,。如圖所示,,印度很多地方目前根本就沒(méi)有3G和4G網(wǎng)絡(luò),,就算買(mǎi)了iPhone,也只能裝裝門(mén)面,。

來(lái)源:OpenSignal.com(圖片點(diǎn)擊可放大)

????上個(gè)月,,新聞媒體大肆報(bào)道稱(chēng),蘋(píng)果(Apple)iPhone在印度的出貨量半年內(nèi)猛增兩倍,。之后,,這家公司又在印度實(shí)施了多項(xiàng)積極的市場(chǎng)策略,例如一系列的廣告活動(dòng)以及手機(jī)以舊換新計(jì)劃,。有分析預(yù)計(jì),,這些舉措有望使蘋(píng)果在印度市場(chǎng)的銷(xiāo)售額在2013財(cái)年結(jié)束前達(dá)到10億美元。

????不過(guò),,蘋(píng)果在印度及其它新興市場(chǎng)面臨的真正制約因素也許并不是手機(jī)的價(jià)格,。科技博客OpenSignal展示了一份地圖(見(jiàn)上):在印度,,有很多地方根本沒(méi)有3G和4G網(wǎng)絡(luò)覆蓋,。這或許才是蘋(píng)果的癥結(jié)所在。

????本周早些時(shí)候,,科技博客Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪烏在和The Next Web網(wǎng)站的馬丁?布萊恩特談話時(shí),,簡(jiǎn)要闡述了這個(gè)問(wèn)題。

????TNW:你認(rèn)為新興市場(chǎng)的主流消費(fèi)者什么時(shí)候才能擁有購(gòu)買(mǎi)智能手機(jī),?

????德迪烏:這純粹是個(gè)學(xué)術(shù)問(wèn)題,。更重要的問(wèn)題是,新興市場(chǎng)的智能手機(jī)用戶(hù)什么時(shí)候才能用上真正的移動(dòng)寬帶,。落后的移動(dòng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和日益增長(zhǎng)的終端需求之間的矛盾正不斷擴(kuò)大,。如果聽(tīng)之任之,所有智能手機(jī)都將失去移動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)傳輸?shù)恼嬲齼r(jià)值,,淪為裝樣子的玩具,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????Apple (AAPL) made headlines last month on reports that its iPhone shipments to India tripled in the space of six months. Since then it's instituted some aggressive marketing techniques, including an advertising blitz and a buyback scheme, that could propel the company's sales in the country, according to one estimate, to $1 billion before the end of fiscal 2013.

????But the real limiting factor for Apple in India -- and other emerging markets -- may not the phone's price as much as the issue apparent in the OpenSignal map above: The vast portions of the subcontinent with no 3G and 4G cellular coverage.

????Asymco's Horace Dediu stated the problem succinctly earlier this week in this exchange with The Next Web's Martin Bryant:

????TNW: At what point do you believe that the majority of people in emerging markets will own smartphones (if at all)?

????Dediu: The question is academic. The more important question is when will mobile broadband be available to all those who own smartphones. The economics of providing bandwidth are out of sync with the economics of providing terminals that can consume it. If it continues this way, all those smartphones will not be used for mobile data and will thus be essentially dumb.

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