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????我們選取了一些分析師對蘋果（Apple）iPad 2發(fā)布會的反應，截至上周四中午,，我們共收到了20份報告。

????奧本海默（Oppenheimer）的耶爾?瑞內(nèi)：剛剛推出的iPad 2做出了一些小的改進,，這種改進正是消費者期望從2代蘋果設備身上看到的,。盡管iPad 2并沒有增加什么突破性的特點或功能，但這些改進和升級——更薄,、更輕,、更快,、更互聯(lián)——加總在一起，極大的提升了這款設備總的吸引力,。這次升級與此前iPhone G2.5到3G那次升級特別像，當時那一系列小的改進使得iPhone的銷量在其誕生第二年增長了2倍多,。iPad的那些競爭性產(chǎn)品這下慘了，它們還在努力趕上1代iPad的價格和性能,。在2011年,，蘋果將繼續(xù)占據(jù)平板電腦市場75%-85%的份額,。

????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂：盡管今天沒有什么大的驚喜,，但在親身試用iPad 2樣機之后,，我們認為其性能有了極大改進,，而且厚度和重量都大幅減小,，從而提升了整個用戶體驗……我在過去一年一直在使用1代iPad,，相比之下，iPad 2樣機的網(wǎng)頁下載速度和整體運行速度都快得多,。在性能提升之外,，iPad 2的厚度和重量的減小也不容小覷。2代iPad外觀時尚——比1代iPad薄了33%,，輕了15%（與其多款10英寸的競爭產(chǎn)品相比也是如此）,，這對整個用戶體驗有著重要影響,。

????RBC的麥克?阿布拉姆斯基：在iPad 2發(fā)布會上,，休病假的史蒂夫?喬布斯意外現(xiàn)身，令大家又驚又喜（盡管他并沒有說明自己會不會重返蘋果）,，相比之下,，會上宣布的其他事項以及iPad 2的新增功能基本都在人們的意料之內(nèi)……iPad 2提升了競爭的標準,，持續(xù)對競爭者造成壓力,，并繼續(xù)瞄準尋求絕佳用戶體驗,、以媒體功能為中心的平板電腦消費者。iPad 2沒有改變即將推出的Android平板電腦或PlayBook的競爭格局,，因為后者針對的是另外的子市場（比如Android/谷歌粉絲,、以生產(chǎn)力為中心的消費者以及企業(yè)級市場）。

????Needham的查理?沃爾夫：在iPad問世一年之后,，各廠商爭相推出媒體平板電腦，然而iPad 2一出,，這些產(chǎn)品馬上將被淘汰,。那些競爭性產(chǎn)品可以模仿iPad的硬件特點，但現(xiàn)在沒有,、將來也不會有誰能夠媲美iPad的軟件。而且它們在價格方面也無法與iPad競爭,。

????Susquehanna的杰夫?費達卡洛：我們最近發(fā)布的供應鏈檢查顯示,，由于一些季節(jié)性因素,，在2011年第1季度,，iPad的產(chǎn)量將為690萬到710萬部，其中只有近200萬部為1代iPad,。這與Digitimes的一篇文章不謀而合,，該文章稱蘋果在2011年1季度將生產(chǎn)600萬到650萬部iPad（包括iPad 2在內(nèi)）,，而在2011年全年將生產(chǎn)4000萬部iPad,。我們預測在2011年第2季度,，iPad 1的庫存將降低，而iPad的產(chǎn)量將大幅增長至1000萬至1200萬部。我們預計在3月份和6月份那兩個季度,，iPad的發(fā)貨量將分別為525萬部和850萬部,。

????巴克萊（Barclay）的本?雷特茲：我們認為今天的iPad 2發(fā)布會非常成功,，而且蘋果3月11日就將開始發(fā)售iPad 2,，這對2011年第1季度的iPad銷量而言,，會是一個意外的利好,。我們認為史蒂夫?喬布斯的現(xiàn)身也是一個利好,，不過,，長期來看，我們認為更關鍵的是蘋果強勁的基本面以及iPad供應鏈僅今年一年就將生產(chǎn)4000多萬部iPad這一點,。iPad 2令人驚艷,，其競爭產(chǎn)品將望塵莫及,。

????花旗銀行（Citigroup）的理查德?加德納：僅僅從硬件參數(shù)來看,，蘋果iPad 2就已趕上或超越其它競爭對手目前的產(chǎn)品。關于上代iPad,，批評的焦點集中在其缺少前后攝像頭和雙核處理器,，不過現(xiàn)在這些問題都解決了,。iPad 2繼續(xù)在續(xù)航時間上獨占鰲頭（超過10小時），而且還是目前市面上最薄最輕的10英寸平板電腦,。除了出色的硬件，iPad 2還具有以下優(yōu)點：（1）499美元的起價極具殺傷力,，鑒于蘋果的成本優(yōu)勢,，這一售價將令其它競爭對手難以匹敵；（2）對開發(fā)者具有強大吸引力（iOS上有65000款專為平板電腦設計的應用程序,，而其它平臺的軟件數(shù)量則少得可憐）,；（3）蘋果產(chǎn)品的裝機量極大,，有2億多個賬號關聯(lián)了信用卡,；（4）天衣無縫,、無以倫比的用戶體驗，現(xiàn)在仍然無人能敵,。

????德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的克里斯?惠特摩爾：我們估計iOS的裝機量超過1.85億（iPhone,、iPad和iPod touch），目前為止,，iOS開發(fā)者們從應用程序中獲得的收益超過20億美元。除此之外,，iPad擁有超過65000款專門定制的應用程序（Android蜂巢的應用程序只有可憐巴巴的近100款）。我們預期蘋果巨大的裝機量將吸引更多的開發(fā)者,，而開發(fā)者帶來的新應用到時候又會為蘋果拉來更多用戶,，從而使得蘋果的領先優(yōu)勢繼續(xù)擴大,。我們還預計蘋果會獲得來自運營商（美國電話電報公司和威瑞森）的強力支持,，加之其無可匹敵的分銷網(wǎng)絡（蘋果零售店,、在線渠道、百思買,、國際網(wǎng)絡等）,，iPad銷量將強勁增長,。

????高盛（Goldman Sachs）的比爾?紹普：我們認為iPad 2的上市和6月份iPhone的升級,，將成為市場未來幾個月的關鍵催化劑事件,。我們的模型曾保守的假設蘋果會降低批發(fā)平均售價,，而現(xiàn)在iPad 2售價未變,，因此我們需要相應的調(diào)整預期,。不過，我們保持對iPad 2銷量的預期,，因為我們認為iPad 2將加劇蘋果在平板電腦領域的競爭勢頭,。

????摩根大通（JP Morgan）的馬克?莫斯科維奇：我們認為iPad 2從里到外,，整體獲得了提升，蘋果即使不能因此擴大在平板電腦市場的領先優(yōu)勢,，也至少能保住現(xiàn)有的地位,。在我們看來,，iPad 2發(fā)布會最大的亮點在于,，當競爭對手接踵而至，模仿第一代iPad 時,，第二代iPad恰好降臨,，真是適當其時。

????Morgan Keegan的特拉維斯?麥考特：總體而言,，iPad 2的技術參數(shù)并不讓人驚艷，不過我們?nèi)哉J為其它廠商很難做出和iPad 2價格及功能差不多的10英寸平板電腦,。我們同樣看到平板電腦的種類在不斷增加,，幾乎每家智能手機制造商都進入了這塊市場,。筆記本價值鏈看來顯然成了輸家。

????美林（Merrill Lynch）的斯科特?克雷格：此次發(fā)布會最大的意外是史蒂夫?喬布斯的露面,，自1月份起,，他的健康問題就一直被外界所關注,。我們認為這不會是導致蘋果股價大幅上升的催化劑事件,，但對投資者而言它可算是一顆定心丸?；谔O果的毛利率繼續(xù)上升,；存在收入增長機會,；并且預期每股盈余以及估值會向上調(diào)整,，我們認為蘋果公司股票的風險回報率仍然很高。我們對其維持“買入”評級,。

????蒙特利爾銀行（BMO）的基思?巴赫曼：我們注意到iPad 1在上市后大概1個月里售出了100萬臺（僅在美國）,，不到2個月里售出了200萬臺。我們的檢查顯示,，量產(chǎn)始于2月份,，不過產(chǎn)量不算太大。因此,，我們認為iPad 2在3月份這一季度的出貨量將是50萬到100萬臺,。

????Gleacher的布賴恩?馬歇爾：當看到史蒂夫?喬布斯在iPad 2發(fā)布會上露面,，我們非常驚訝,。從我們看來，比起上次在公開場合露面，他的狀況明顯好了很多（這顯示是件好事）,。重要的是,，他并沒有搶走“主角”iPad 2的風頭，而iPad 2也沒讓我們失望,。參加發(fā)布會之前,，我們并沒有升級第一代iPad 的沖動，然而當把玩過iPad 2后,，我們的想法可能改變了,。

????USB的梅納德?尤姆：鑒于iPad 2的售價與功能，我們預計蘋果將在競爭日益激烈的平板電腦市場繼續(xù)保持領先優(yōu)勢,。iPad 2功能得到增強,，但售價仍然維持在500-830美元區(qū)間[摩托羅拉（Motorola）的Xoom售價為800美元，而相比之下蘋果iPad 2的售價僅730美元],。

????JMP的亞歷克斯?古納：雖然人們肯定會批評iPad 2不支持4G,，但當初第一代iPhone上市時，蘋果就曾成功打消人們對其采用2.5G而非3G技術的疑慮,；況且3G網(wǎng)絡的數(shù)據(jù)傳輸速度已經(jīng)令人側(cè)目,；而且蘋果過去的表現(xiàn)證明,，它總是在適當?shù)臅r候推出適當?shù)募夹g,。我們認為其他廠商在2011年不可能拿出能與iPad 2一爭高下的產(chǎn)品，尤其是在應用程序領域,。所以我們將2011年iPad銷量的預測從2900萬部提高到3500萬部,，并認為這一數(shù)字還有可能進一步上升至4900萬部。

????Stifel Nicolaus的道格?里德：總體而言,，iPad 2發(fā)布會使我們確信,，對絕大部分消費者而言，相對于與其競爭的Android設備,，iPad 2無論在價格,、性能還是外觀上都占據(jù)上風。不過話雖如此,，我們?nèi)哉J為許多投資者都低估了用戶對平板電腦支持Adobe Flash的需求,，這一需求依然龐大，而iPad 2完全不能滿足它們,。

????Think Equities的拉杰什?蓋伊：雖然iPad 2厚度的減少,，有助于其稍稍壓縮材料成本，不過我們認為制造成本的上升會將其抵消,。iPad 2采用了不少新部件,，例如前后攝像頭、更強勁的芯片和一些未公布的部件，如擴大容量的內(nèi)存等,，這將會使成本增加,，不過采購數(shù)量大幅增長將使得零部件供應協(xié)議價有所下降，從而使這些成本增長被消化掉,。我們提醒投資者注意,，蘋果最近與勝華科技（Wintek）和宸鴻科技（TPK）等供應商達成協(xié)議，確?？刂屏巳蚪?0%的觸摸屏產(chǎn)能,。我們認為這些新協(xié)議將會確保iPad 2的產(chǎn)能更好地滿足消費者的需求，而且,，當其他競爭對手想擴大產(chǎn)能時,，也會面對蘋果帶來的壓力。

????Canaccord Genuity的T?麥克?沃克勒：我們認為蘋果對iPad 2的定價（WiFi版499美元,、3G版629美元）,，將給摩托羅拉 Xoom（599美元/799美元）和黑莓（BlackBerry）Playbook（預計499美元）等競爭性產(chǎn)品在銷售上造成壓力。由于iPad 2相比其它平板電腦的價格優(yōu)勢,，我們相信消費者將會一邊倒地選擇前者,。

????Jeffries的皮特?米薩科：盡管許多競爭對手也發(fā)布了平板電腦，不過我們認為蘋果的產(chǎn)品領導地位,、垂直整合能力和廣闊的全球化布局將會力助其在平板電腦市場占據(jù)最大的市場份額,，并獲取最多的商業(yè)利益。我們認為iPad 2的發(fā)布是個利好因素,，不過并未超出人們的預期,。

????譯者：項航

????A sampling of analysts' reactions to Apple's (AAPL) iPad 2 event. By midday Thursday we'd received 20 reports.

????Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner:The just unveiled iPad 2 offers the kind of incremental improvements consumers have come to expect from a second-generation Apple device. While it doesn't include any new breakthrough features or functionalities, the sum total of its refinements and upgrades—thinner, lighter, faster, more connected—significantly enhance the device's overall appeal. The closest historical parallel would be the iPhone G2.5 to 3G transition, whose slew of relatively minor upgrades allowed sales to more than triple in the product's second year. This is a sad day for the crowd of competitors still struggling to home in on the first iPad's price and performance. We continue to see Apple grabbing 75-85% of the tablet market in 2011.

????Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty:Although there were no big surprises today, following our hands on demo we think that the iPad 2 delivers dramatic performance improvements and an important reduction in thickness/weight improving the overall user experience. ... After using the original iPad over the last year, our iPad 2 demo revealed significantly faster webpage loading speeds and overall performance. Besides the performance improvements, iPad 2's reduction in thickness and weight should not be underestimated. The device is sleek - 33% thinner and 15% lighter than the original iPad (and vs. many 10" competitors) which has an important impact on the overall user experience.

????RBC's Mike Abramsky:Steve Jobs appearance from medical leave was a welcome surprise to the event (although he did not say whether or not he would return to Apple), while other announcements and iPad 2 features were largely inline... iPad 2 raises the bar and sustains pressure on competitors, and continues to target media-centric tablet consumers seeking a premium experience. iPad 2 doesn't alter competitive landscape for pending Android tablets or PlayBook, which may appeal to different market segments (like Android/Google fans, productivity-centric or enterprise segments).

????Needham's Charlie Wolf:Pad 2 immediately obsoletes a flood of media tablets that are finally beginning to appear a year after the iPad's introduction. Competitive tablets can emulate the hardware features of the iPad. But none can or probably never will match its software. Nor can they match its price.

????Susquehanna's Jeff Fidacaro:Our recently published supply-chain checks suggest total iPad builds of 6.9 mln-7.1 mln for CY1Q11 due to some seasonality and is comprised of only ~2 mln iPad1 units. This corroborates with a Digitimes article suggesting a build of 6 mln-6.5 mln iPads (including iPad2) in CY1Q11 and 40 mln for CY11. We anticipate a workdown of iPad1 inventory and a significant ramp-up in iPad production in CY2Q11 to 10 mln-12 mln units. Our March- and June-quarter iPad estimates call for 5.25 mln and 8.5 mln shipments, respectively.

????Barclay's Ben Reitzes:We view today's announcement as impressive and the early ship date, March 11, as a positive surprise that should provide upside support to C1Q iPad estimates. We also view Steve Jobs' appearance as a positive, but we focus on Apple's strong fundamentals and iPad supply chain builds of over 40 million units this year alone as key to the thesis moving forward. iPad 2 is impressive and should keep competitors at bay.

????Citigroup's Richard Gardner:On purely a hardware spec basis, the iPad 2 allows Apple to catch up or exceed competitors' current features (see fig.1). The most glaring criticisms had been the lack of front and rear facing cameras and a dual core processor, both of which have been resolved. The iPad 2 continues to lead in battery performance (+10 hours), and is now the thinnest and lightest 10" tablet in the market. In addition to the hardware, the iPad will be advantaged due to 1) an aggressive entry price of $499, which will be difficult to match given Apple's cost advantage, 2) its ability to attract developers (65,000 tablet-specific apps on iOS, vs. an insignificant number on other platforms), 3) Apple's impressive installed base of more than 200M accounts linked to credit cards, and 4) a seamless and intuitive user experience, which remains unmatched.

????Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore:We estimate the iOS installed base is 185M+ units (iPhone, iPad and iPod touch) with over $2B of App revenue earned by iOS developers to date. In addition, there are over 65K Apps specifically designed for the iPad (vs. ~100 Android Honeycomb Apps). We expect Apple's lead to extend as this installed base attracts even more developers, whose new Apps will attract even more users. In addition, we expect strong broad support (AT&T and Verizon) coupled with unmatched distribution (Apple retail stores, online, Best Buy, int'l etc) to propel strong growth of this device.

????Goldman Sachs' Bill Shope:We believe the iPad 2 introduction and the June iPhone refresh will serve as critical catalysts in the coming months. Our model had conservatively assumed that the company would lower wholesale ASPs, so we are adjusting our estimates to reflect the unchanged price points. We are maintaining our unit estimates due to our view that the iPad 2 will accelerate Apple's competitive momentum in tablets.

????JP Morgan's Mark Mosckowitz:We think the overall improvements, inside and out, should sustain, if not add to, the company's market leadership in tablets. In our view, what is suitably impressive with today's iPad 2 launch is the arrival of a second-generation iPad just as the competition is rolling out or prototyping their first-generation tablets.

????Morgan Keegan's Travis McCourt:Overall, there was nothing extremely surprising in terms of specs, and still believe that other vendors will have difficulty selling 10 inch tablets at similar price points and functionality as Apple. However, we still view the tablet category as incrementally positive for nearly every smartphone vendor adding this form factor. The laptop value chain appears to be the clear loser.

????Merrill Lynch's Scott Craig:What was not expected was the appearance of Steve Jobs whose health has been the subject of speculation since January. While we don't expect this to be a catalyst for the stock, we believe investors find it reassuring. We believe risk/reward remains favorable predicated on gross margin tailwinds, revenue growth opportunities, anticipated upward revisions to EPS and valuation. Maintain Buy.

????BMO's Keith Bachman:We note that the original iPad sold 1 million units in approximately 1 month of shipment (US only) and 2 million units in less than 2 months. Our checks indicate mass production started in February, but volumes are modest. Hence, we believe iPad 2 unit shipments for the March quarter could be in the 500K to 1 million unit range.

????Gleacher's Brian Marshall:While we were surprised by Steve Jobs' presence at the iPad 2 launch event, his appearance actually improved from his last public event, in our view (obviously a good thing). Importantly, he did not draw focus away from the main event ... the iPad 2 introduction ... which did not disappoint. Heading into the event, we had no intention of upgrading our gen 1 iPads, but after testing the new device, we may have changed our minds.

????USB's Maynard Um:Given price points/features, we expect AAPL to maintain leadership in the increasingly competitive tablet mkt. Note AAPL maintained price points between $500-830 despite improved features (Motorola's Xoom $800 unit compares to AAPL's $730 iPad 2).

????JMP's Alex Gauna:Although there will no doubt be criticism around the lack of 4G, we recall that the original iPhone shrugged off similar concerns over its 2.5G introduction, that 3G data speeds already rate as impressive, and that Apple has a strong track record of pushing the right technology envelops at the right pace. We know of no other, nor expect any other, tablet offering in 2011 to match the value proposition of the iPad2, particularly in the area of Apps, and subsequently we are raising our FY11 iPad estimate from 29M to 35M units while noting the potential for further upside towards 49M...

????Stifel Nicolaus's Doug Reid:Overall, we come away from the iPad 2 event convinced that for most consumers the iPad 2 will offer the most compelling value proposition relative to competing Android devices based on price, performance, and aesthetics. That said, we believe many investors underestimate current demand for Adobe Flash support on tablets which remains massive, and entirely unmet by the iPad 2.

????Think Equities' Rajesh Ghai:While the cost of material may decrease slightly with the slimmer form factor, we expect the increased manufacturing costs to offset the savings. The addition of new components such as the front and rear camera, as well as the more powerful chip and unannounced but likely increased memory will increase the cost of components, but new supply agreements at significantly larger volumes should offset these changes. We remind investors that Apple recently secured close to 60% of the global touch panel capacity through panel makers such as Wintek and TPK. We believe these new agreements will ensure that supply is able to more readily meet demand, as well as placing increased pressure on competitors attempting to ramp to production volumes.

????Canaccord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley:We believe that Apple's pricing of the iPad2 ($499 for WiFi-only, $629 for 3G base models) will pressure sales of competing offerings including the Motorola Xoom ($599/$799) and BlackBerry Playbook (expected $499) as we believe consumers will overwhelmingly choose iPad2 versus other tablets at these price points.

????Jeffries' Peter Misek:Despite the launches of many competitive tablets, we believe Apple's product leadership, vertical integration, and vast scale will cause it to win the largest share of the tablet market and the majority of the economic benefits. We believe that the announcement was positive, but broadly inline with expectations.