????自從地震和海嘯導(dǎo)致日本一些核反應(yīng)堆瀕臨融毀,，天然氣價(jià)格已小幅上漲,。一些交易員認(rèn)定這會(huì)引發(fā)全球范圍內(nèi)天然氣價(jià)格更大幅度的上漲，但美國(guó)的情況可能不同,，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)國(guó)內(nèi)可供應(yīng)住宅和樓宇的天然氣不僅價(jià)格相對(duì)低廉,，而且供過(guò)于求。
????日本現(xiàn)已關(guān)停11座核反應(yīng)堆,，隨著其國(guó)內(nèi)多個(gè)核電站停運(yùn),，市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)期這個(gè)東亞島國(guó)將需要更多的液化天然氣和其他燃料用于發(fā)電；核電占日本總發(fā)電量的四分之一,。另外，市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)隨著日本開(kāi)始從這場(chǎng)災(zāi)難中復(fù)蘇,，原本運(yùn)往歐洲和世界其他地區(qū)的液化天然氣貨船可能會(huì)改道以滿足日本需求的增加,。
????確實(shí),，震后天然氣現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格已經(jīng)上漲。德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank ）稱,，日益依賴進(jìn)口天然氣的歐洲所受影響可能最大,。分析師們預(yù)計(jì)，從歐洲轉(zhuǎn)移至日本的液化天然氣供應(yīng)量可能達(dá)到每年50-120億立方米,，從而推高歐洲天然氣中心的現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格,。德意志銀行還指出，這可能導(dǎo)致歐洲天然氣市場(chǎng)變局,。
????我們看到美國(guó)天然氣市場(chǎng)也有同樣的動(dòng)向,，美國(guó)天然氣期貨價(jià)格較日本大地震前一天水平已上漲約2.9%。但總部位于馬薩諸塞州的能源市場(chǎng)咨詢公司IHS Global Insight Cambridge Energy Research Associates的全球天然氣總監(jiān)瑪麗?巴克拉認(rèn)為,，至少短期內(nèi),，美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格有望保持低廉。
????在談到天然氣時(shí),，不妨將美國(guó)和北美其他地區(qū)視為一個(gè)自成一體的島嶼,。技術(shù)進(jìn)步和頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)創(chuàng)新已使該地區(qū)在天然氣生產(chǎn)上相對(duì)自足，基本上無(wú)需進(jìn)口液化天然氣,。事實(shí)上,，總部位于香港的經(jīng)紀(jì)和投資集團(tuán)CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，目前美國(guó)的進(jìn)口量?jī)H為10億立方英尺/天,，不及其國(guó)內(nèi)供應(yīng)量的2%,。
????另外，巴克拉指出,，美國(guó)的天然氣供應(yīng)明顯供過(guò)于求——在剛剛過(guò)去的這個(gè)冬天,，有近3,000口鉆好的天然氣井沒(méi)有并網(wǎng)送氣。
????而且,，美國(guó)看來(lái)不會(huì)出口這些過(guò)剩的天然氣供應(yīng),，因?yàn)楫?dāng)?shù)厝狈δ軐⒋罅刻烊粴庖夯⑤斔统隹诘幕A(chǔ)設(shè)施。CLSA表示,，卡塔爾,、馬來(lái)西亞、印尼和澳大利亞是最大的液化天然氣出口國(guó),，可能會(huì)完全填補(bǔ)日本出現(xiàn)的需求缺口,。
????但長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，Pritchard Capital Partners駐休斯頓的分析師阿紐基?莎瑪認(rèn)為,，可能推高天然氣價(jià)格——乃至美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格的一個(gè)不確定因素,，是對(duì)核電審查力度的加大，這可能導(dǎo)致管制升級(jí)和成本上升,。在日本竭力避免核災(zāi)難發(fā)生的同時(shí),，很多政策制定者已開(kāi)始質(zhì)疑核電的安全性,。例如，瑞士政府周一已正式擱置建設(shè)核電廠的計(jì)劃,。在美國(guó),，康涅狄格州參議員約瑟夫?利伯曼呼吁，至少在核電安全性得到進(jìn)一步明確前“放緩”新核電廠的建設(shè),。 |
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????The price of natural gas has edged up since the earthquake and tsunami pushed some of Japan's nuclear reactors to the brink of meltdown. Some traders are betting that it will spur a bigger rally globally of natural gas prices, but that probably won't be the case in the U.S. as the domestic market already sits on a glut of the relatively cheap fuel used to power homes and buildings.
????Japan has shut down 11 nuclear reactors, and with several plants out of operation, it's widely expected that the East Asian island will need additional supplies of liquefied natural gas and other fuels to generate electricity. Nuclear power provides a quarter of Japan's electricity, and the expectations are that cargoes of LNG from Europe and other parts of the world will re-route to meet additional demands from Japan as it start recovering from the disaster.
????And indeed, spot prices have risen higher since the earthquake. Deutsche Bank says Europe is perhaps most vulnerable because it is increasingly dependent on imports of natural gas. Analysts predict from 5 billion to 12 billion cubic meters a year of LNG supplies could now be diverted away from Europe and into Japan, driving spot prices higher in the region's gas hubs. Deutsche added that it could be a "a game-change for the EU gas market."
????We've seen the momentum carry into the U.S. natural gas market, too, where futures for natural gas have climbed about 2.9% since the day before the earthquake. However, in the near-term at least, America's natural gas will likely remain cheap, says Mary Barcella, global gas director with IHS Global Insight Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a Massachusetts-based consulting company that specializes in energy markets.
????When it comes to natural gas, think of the U.S. and the rest of North America as an island of its own. Technological advances and the shale-gas revolution have made the region relatively self-sufficient in producing the fuel and virtually independent of LNG imports. In fact, the U.S. currently imports barely 1 billion cubic feet per day, accounting for less than 2% of domestic supply, according to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, a Hong Kong-based brokerage and investment group.
????What's more, Barcella says, the U.S. already sits on a vast oversupply of the fuel – she points to the nearly 3,000 gas wells this past winter that have been drilled but have yet to be hooked up to the natural gas supply system.
????And it's not as if the U.S. would export the excess supply, since the country lacks the infrastructure to easily liquefy large amounts of the gas to sell abroad. Qatar, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia are the biggest LNG exports and will likely fill any void for Japan, CLSA says.
????In the long-term, however, the wild card that could send prices higher even in the U.S. is extra scrutiny of nuclear power that could result in more regulations and added costs, says Anuj Sharma, an analyst at Pritchard Capital Partners in Houston. As workers in Japan try to avert a nuclear disaster, many policymakers question nuclear safety. On Monday, for example, the Swiss government officially suspended plans to build nuclear plants. And in the U.S., Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut has called to "to slow things down" on new plants at least until safety is further explored. |
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