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????奧瑞特?范?希爾登曾是一名積極反對(duì)種族隔離制度的活動(dòng)分子,，受到南非政府折磨和關(guān)押，最終被流放,。如今,，他是美國(guó)公平勞動(dòng)協(xié)會(huì)(Fair Labor Association, FLA)的首席執(zhí)行長(zhǎng)，該協(xié)會(huì)在華盛頓,、日內(nèi)瓦和上海都有辦公室,。

????公平勞動(dòng)協(xié)會(huì)匯集了耐克(Nike)、阿迪達(dá)斯(Adidas)和恒適(Hanes)等跨國(guó)公司,，普林斯頓大學(xué)(Princeton),、圣母大學(xué)(Notre Dame)等高校以及全美消費(fèi)者聯(lián)盟(National Consumers League)、Human Rights First等非政府組織的力量,，致力于消除全球各地的血汗工廠現(xiàn)象,。上周，我采訪了剛剛結(jié)束中國(guó)之行的希爾登先生,。目前在中國(guó),，國(guó)內(nèi)通脹率已達(dá)到近5%，食品通脹率超過(guò)10%,，最低工資兩位數(shù)的漲幅也屢見(jiàn)不鮮,。

????中國(guó)依然是全球制造商降低生產(chǎn)成本的可選地嗎？

????形勢(shì)變化非?？?。中國(guó)、印度這些我們過(guò)去認(rèn)為可能用之不竭的勞工市場(chǎng),，事實(shí)上已顯著收緊,。雇主們找不到工人。工資已經(jīng)上漲,。此外,，還有能源成本上漲,，工廠和代工企業(yè)突然感到壓力。因此,，他們轉(zhuǎn)向買家,，即零售商或品牌公司，他們說(shuō)：“嗨,，我的價(jià)格要上調(diào),。”而品牌公司說(shuō),，“哇,，我們認(rèn)為我們無(wú)法將價(jià)格上漲轉(zhuǎn)嫁至消費(fèi)者?！庇悬c(diǎn)像火車就要撞上了,。

????他們不會(huì)尋找其他更廉價(jià)的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)嗎？

????他們是在考慮能否將更多制造業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)至孟加拉國(guó),、越南或印尼等國(guó)家,，但可選地不多。最后一個(gè)進(jìn)入供應(yīng)鏈的國(guó)家是2000年的柬埔寨,，目前只剩下一,、兩個(gè)地方了。人們正在重新審視非洲,，看是否有遺漏之地,。迄今為止，尋找另一個(gè)廉價(jià)平臺(tái),、另一個(gè)廉價(jià)國(guó)家的努力一直在持續(xù),，但坦白來(lái)講，已沒(méi)有選擇,。沒(méi)有其他地方可去,。

????那么,，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者將不得不為Gap的毛衣和牛仔褲支付更高的價(jià)格?

????是的,。我認(rèn)為消費(fèi)者將看到服裝價(jià)格普遍上漲。漲價(jià)的可能還有電子和其他流行消費(fèi)品,，因?yàn)樗鼈兊某杀窘Y(jié)構(gòu)也在變化,。廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力的終結(jié)并非唯一原因。廉價(jià)的水資源和土地資源也在逐漸消失,。中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的水資源不足以滿足本國(guó)消費(fèi)需求,，但硅晶片工廠仍在消耗上百億加侖水。中國(guó)的有關(guān)部門早已告訴北京,，明年中國(guó)的水費(fèi)價(jià)將增長(zhǎng)四倍,。各行各業(yè)都必須提高工人工資,，承擔(dān)更高的原材料、水資源和能源成本,。這一切無(wú)可回避,。

????何時(shí)這些趨勢(shì)變化將惠及美國(guó)和其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的工人？

????在中國(guó),，我向幾家重工業(yè)公司提了這個(gè)問(wèn)題,，事實(shí)上他們說(shuō)很快。確實(shí),，我們?cè)缫训竭_(dá)這個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn),。我注意到幾周前有一篇關(guān)于總部位于密爾沃基的標(biāo)志性鎖具公司Master Lock的文章。他們重新調(diào)整了生產(chǎn)布局,，事實(shí)上公司生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)已從中國(guó)移回至美國(guó),。Master Lock首席執(zhí)行長(zhǎng)指出，幸運(yùn)的是他們從未忘記如何制鎖,。他們一直在美國(guó)保留了小規(guī)模生產(chǎn),。許多其他公司在將生產(chǎn)外包時(shí)，關(guān)閉了所有工廠,，將制造業(yè)務(wù)全部交由代工企業(yè),。這些人可能現(xiàn)在有麻煩了。

????對(duì)于那些依賴出口產(chǎn)業(yè)提供就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的發(fā)展中國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō),，這將是一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難嗎,？

????我從不認(rèn)為就業(yè)是一場(chǎng)零和游戲。但很多現(xiàn)在提供的職位是不可持續(xù)的,。如果就是簡(jiǎn)單地將這些職位移至下一個(gè)廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng),，是悲哀的——而那個(gè)廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)也許就是美國(guó)。我寧愿看到這些公司留下來(lái),，投資培訓(xùn),，投資新技術(shù)，提高效率,。僅以兩個(gè)國(guó)家為例,，目前在中國(guó)和孟加拉國(guó)，由于這樣或那樣的原因,，供電不足,。因此，工廠在使用柴油發(fā)電機(jī)解決電荒問(wèn)題——如此用電不僅成本高,、效率低,，也不利于減排。

????你持有這樣的觀點(diǎn)已有多年。我不知道你是變得樂(lè)觀,、還是悲觀,，現(xiàn)在心境怎樣？

????我看到情況變得更糟糕了,。政府對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域或環(huán)境的監(jiān)管能力普遍下降,。原因很多，不僅僅是腐敗,。這是許多國(guó)家政治進(jìn)程的失敗,。給相關(guān)各方——買家、雇主,、工人以及環(huán)境——帶來(lái)了大量風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。

????以人口販賣為例。現(xiàn)在,，我們已經(jīng)有了真正的全球化勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng),，隨著地方經(jīng)濟(jì)瓦解，越來(lái)越多的年輕人必須離開(kāi)家鄉(xiāng),，到其他地方找工作,。但他們往往落入黑心的勞工中介手中。人口販賣如今已是僅次于武器販賣的第二大犯罪活動(dòng),，規(guī)模超越毒品,。企業(yè)現(xiàn)在對(duì)此沒(méi)有好的應(yīng)對(duì)舉措。我認(rèn)為這是接下來(lái)要解決的一大問(wèn)題,，具有社會(huì)責(zé)任感的公司必須解決好供應(yīng)鏈中被販賣的工人問(wèn)題,。

????如何實(shí)現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)變？

????基本上,，我們將不得不靠自己來(lái)完成轉(zhuǎn)變,。民權(quán)社會(huì)和具有社會(huì)責(zé)任感的公司必須承擔(dān)起責(zé)任。你問(wèn)我的心境,？現(xiàn)實(shí)令我沮喪,。但我是樂(lè)觀的，因?yàn)槲覀兿騺?lái)能動(dòng)員民權(quán)社會(huì),，而且具有社會(huì)責(zé)任感的公司已經(jīng)做出了反應(yīng),。如果我們能聚集相當(dāng)?shù)拿癖娏α浚瑢?shí)現(xiàn)民權(quán)社會(huì)和跨國(guó)公司的合作,，我相信我們能做出很大改進(jìn),。

????這不復(fù)雜,，但并非沒(méi)有爭(zhēng)議,。很多人會(huì)說(shuō)：“這是政府的職責(zé)。沒(méi)人選舉這些跨國(guó)公司，沒(méi)人賦予它們責(zé)任,?！钡拱讈?lái)講，如果你等待政府前來(lái)清理水源或保護(hù)你的工資和工作權(quán)利,，我得說(shuō)可別屏息以待,。

????Auret van Heerden is a former anti-apartheid activist who was tortured, imprisoned and ultimately exiled by the South African government. He's now CEO of the Fair Labor Association (FLA), with offices in Washington, Geneva and Shanghai.

????The FLA brings together multinational companies like Nike, Adidas and Hanes; universities like Princeton and Notre Dame; and NGOs like the National Consumers League and Human Rights First to end sweat-shop working conditions in factories around the world. I spoke to van Heerden last week, shortly after he returned from a trip to China, where the inflation rate has reached nearly 5%, food inflation is more than 10%, and double-digit increases in the minimum wage are suddenly the norm.

????Is China still an option for global manufacturers seeking lower costs of production?

????It's an incredibly fast-moving situation. Labor markets which we previously thought were inexhaustible, like China and India, have actually tightened up quite dramatically. Employers can't get workers. Wages have gone up. Add to that the energy cost increases, and the factories, the contract manufacturers, are now suddenly squeezed. So they're turning around to their buyers -- to the retailers or the brands -- and they're saying, "Hey, my prices need to go up." And the brands are saying, "Whoa! We don't think we can pass those prices on to the consumer." There's something of a train smash looming.

????Won't they just look for cheaper alternatives elsewhere?

????They're wondering if they could push more stuff to Bangladesh or Vietnam or Indonesia and so on, but the options are limited. The last country added to the supply chain was Cambodia in 2000, and there are only one or two places left. People are looking at Africa again to see if there isn't something that they've overlooked there. Finding another cheap platform, another cheap country, was the default until now, but frankly that's no longer an option. There's nowhere else to go.

????So will US consumers have to pay more for sweaters and jeans at the Gap?

????Yes. I think consumers will see across the board price increases for apparel. Probably for electronics and other popular consumer goods, as well, because their cost structures are shifting, too. The end of cheap labor is not the only factor. We're also running out of cheap water and cheap land. China doesn't have enough water for domestic consumption. Yet silicon-chip factories use billions of gallons. Chinese authorities have already told Beijing that the cost of water will increase fourfold next year. Industry will have to pay more for workers, more for raw materials, more for water, and more for energy. There's just no running away from all of that.

????At what point do these shifting trends begin to benefit workers in the United States and other developed countries?

????I put this question to a bunch of heavy industrial companies in China, and they said quite soon, actually. In fact, we're reaching that point already. I noticed an article a couple of weeks ago about Master Lock, the iconic lock company, headquartered in Milwaukee. They re-ran the numbers, and they've actually moved production back to the US from China. The CEO pointed out that fortunately they've never forgotten how to make locks. They've always kept a small production footprint in the US. A lot of other companies, when they outsourced, they closed their last factories and gave all the work to contract manufacturers. Those guys may find themselves stuck now.

????Will this be a disaster for developing countries that have come to rely on exports for jobs and economic growth?

????I've never thought that jobs were a zero-sum game. But a lot of the jobs are in places right now that are not really sustainable. It would be tragic if those jobs simply left again and went to the next cheapest place -- and that cheapest place might be the US. I would rather see the companies stay and invest in training, invest in new technology, and become more efficient. Right now in China and in Bangladesh, just to cite two countries, the electricity supply is inadequate for one reason or another. And so factories are using diesel generators to make up the deficit -- which is expensive, inefficient, and very bad for their carbon footprints.

????You've been at this for years. I don't know if you let yourself get optimistic or pessimistic, but what's your state of mind right now?

????I see things getting worse. The ability of governments to regulate key areas of labor markets or the environment is generally declining. There are a lot of reasons for that, not only corruption. It's a bankruptcy of the political processes in many countries. That creates a lot of risk for everybody concerned -- for the buyers, for the employer, for the workers, and for the environment.

????Take human trafficking, for example. We have this really globalized labor market now, and as the local economies disintegrate, more and more young people are having to go and look for work elsewhere. But they're often falling into the hands of unscrupulous labor brokers. Human trafficking is now the second-biggest criminal activity after arms dealing. It's more valuable than drugs. Companies don't have a good handle on this right now. I see it as the next big issue that socially responsible companies are going to have to deal with -- the amount of trafficked workers in their supply chains.

????How does that change?

????Basically we'll have to get it done ourselves. Civil society and socially responsible business has to pick up the baton. You asked about my state of mind? I'm depressed by the actual conditions on the ground. But I'm optimistic because we have been able to mobilize civil society, and socially responsible companies have responded. If we can get a critical mass, and the right partnerships of civil society and multinationals, I think we can fill a lot of these gaps.

????It's not uncomplicated and it's not un-controversial. A lot of people would say, "This is the role of government. Nobody elected these multinationals. Nobody gave them a mandate." But frankly if you're waiting for government to come along and clean up your water supply or to protect your wages and your rights at work, I'd say don't hold your breath.