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????麻煩纏身的抵押貸款公司房地美(Freddie Mac)和房利美(Fannie Mae)雖然遭遇了巨大虧損，但現(xiàn)在兩家公司的優(yōu)先股已現(xiàn)上漲,，即便是在美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)又迎來(lái)一年低迷行情之時(shí),。總部位于坦帕的對(duì)沖基金Gator Capital Management在4月份的致投資者信中宣布,，其所持的“兩房”優(yōu)先股帶來(lái)強(qiáng)勁回報(bào)率,。今年頭五周，各類(lèi)優(yōu)先股股價(jià)上漲兩倍,。

????Gator Capital的創(chuàng)始人德瑞克?派勒克表示,，[“兩房”優(yōu)先股]股價(jià)的上漲貢獻(xiàn)了一季度該基金19.6%漲幅的約一半?！皟煞俊眱?yōu)先股占該基金投資組合的10%左右,。

????派勒克有點(diǎn)逆市場(chǎng)而為，即便是在美國(guó)財(cái)政部( Treasury)宣布未來(lái)幾年將縮減“兩房”規(guī)模后,，2月份時(shí)他告訴《財(cái)富》(Fortune)這兩家麻煩纏身的抵押貸款公司的股價(jià)將上漲,。2008年美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩盤(pán)時(shí)， “兩房”因不良貸款承受巨大損失,，被聯(lián)邦政府所救,。在這前后，派勒克增持了“兩房”股票,，買(mǎi)入價(jià)低至0.30美元/股,。投資過(guò)程并不順利——2010年，兩家抵押貸款巨頭都躋身當(dāng)年表現(xiàn)最差的《財(cái)富》美國(guó)500強(qiáng)股票前五名,。

????Gator Capital指出,，即便是在“兩房”經(jīng)歷虧損之時(shí)，它們的財(cái)務(wù)狀況也在改善,。根據(jù)更嚴(yán)格的放貸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)審核的2009年和2010年的貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相對(duì)較低,，盈利能力更好。該對(duì)沖基金預(yù)計(jì)房地美今年可能轉(zhuǎn)虧為盈,，即便是在支付超過(guò)60億美元優(yōu)先股后,。這將是一個(gè)重大的事件轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)——2009年房利美和房地美的虧損額超過(guò)了《財(cái)富》美國(guó)500強(qiáng)中的其他任何公司。

????這只是美好的愿望嗎,？雖然“兩房”的虧損額已較金融危機(jī)鼎盛時(shí)期收窄,，但兩家公司仍欠美國(guó)政府約1,530億美元的所謂史上最大規(guī)模的援助資金,。更重要的是，取決于美國(guó)財(cái)政部縮減“兩房”規(guī)模的計(jì)劃,，優(yōu)先股股東可能完全出局,。

????但任何大幅調(diào)整可能都會(huì)來(lái)得比較晚，因?yàn)殡S著2012年美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選臨近,，美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)可能暫停任何重要表決,。當(dāng)然會(huì)有變化，但如今縮減“兩房”規(guī)模無(wú)疑是國(guó)會(huì)考慮最多的問(wèn)題,。

????撇開(kāi)派勒克的回報(bào),，投資“兩房”并不適合規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)者或謹(jǐn)小慎微者。即便近月來(lái)兩家公司的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò),，但低迷的美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)仍是一個(gè)不可回避的問(wèn)題,。

????Troubled lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae might have suffered huge losses, but holders of the mortgage companies' preferred shares are seeing prices rise even as America's housing market slogs through another year in shambles. In a letter to investors in April, Tampa-based hedge fund Gator Capital Management reported strong returns from its holdings in Freddie and Fannie. Prices for the various classes of preferred stock tripled in value during the first five weeks of the year.

????Gator Capital founder Derek Pilecki says that jump represented about half of the fund's 19.6% gain for the first quarter. About 10% of the fund's portfolio reflects Freddie and Fannie preferred stock.

????Pilecki was somewhat of a contrarian when he told Fortune in February that prices of the troubled lenders would rise even after the U.S. Treasury announced plans to unwind Fannie and Freddie over the next several years. In 2008, as America's housing market crashed, the companies suffered staggering losses from bad loans and were rescued by the federal government. That's around the time Pilecki beefed up his fund's holdings of Freddie and Fannie shares, snapping up the securities for as low as 30 cents per share. It hasn't been an easy ride -- in 2010, both mortgage giants were among the top five worst-performing Fortune 500 stocks of the year.

????Even while the companies suffered losses, their financial picture is improving, according to Gator Capital. Newer loans approved under tighter lending standards in 2009 and 2010 are relatively less risky and more profitable. The hedge fund predicts that Freddie Mac may turn profitable this year even after paying more than $6 billion in preferred stock. This would be a significant turn of events -- Fannie and Freddie lost more money than any other Fortune 500 company in 2009.

????Is this wishful thinking? Though Freddie (FMCC) and Fannie's (FNMA) losses have narrowed since the height of the financial crisis, the companies together still owe the government about $153 billion in what has been called the costliest bailout ever. More importantly, depending on how the Treasury Department plans to shrink these companies, preferred shareholders could be wiped out entirely.

????Indeed, any dramatic changes might come much later, as lawmakers might hold off on any decisions as the Presidential race in 2012 approaches. And it's certainly plausible that things could change, but scaling down Freddie and Fannie is very much the thumping tone on Capitol Hill today.

????Pilecki's returns aside, investing in Fannie and Freddie is not for the risk averse or the faint of heart. Even if their shares have seen brighter days lately, it still has the sorry state of the U.S. housing market to answer to.