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????本周,，所有的眼睛(仍)在盯著希臘債務(wù)危機(jī)。一旦希臘政府無(wú)法通過(guò)財(cái)政緊縮方案,，確保希臘國(guó)內(nèi)根據(jù)去年幾十億歐元救助方案完成涉及1,110億歐元的預(yù)算削減和資產(chǎn)出售,，希臘就距離違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)又近了一步。

????以工會(huì)罷工為代表的抗議浪潮中,，有人卻持有截然相反的觀點(diǎn),，他們認(rèn)定違約對(duì)希臘可能沒(méi)那么糟,。他們指出，阿根廷,、俄羅斯等國(guó)在經(jīng)歷了違約后的短暫沉浮后,，很快就出乎意料地重回正軌。

????這種觀點(diǎn)可能會(huì)讓希臘人稍感安心,，但卻根本站不住腳,。

????2001年阿根廷銀行體系危機(jī)爆發(fā)幾個(gè)月后，阿根廷818億美元主權(quán)債務(wù)出現(xiàn)違約,。當(dāng)年阿根廷GDP下降10.9%,，并被信貸市場(chǎng)拒之門(mén)外。盡管融資困難,，但阿根廷經(jīng)濟(jì)還是出現(xiàn)了復(fù)蘇,，2003年以來(lái)該國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)年增長(zhǎng)率超過(guò)8%。而且,，阿根廷經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)的韌性,，也讓一些人猜測(cè)希臘有望部分復(fù)制阿根廷的成功。

????“基本觀點(diǎn)是阿根廷違約后經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)非常好,，”華盛頓智囊機(jī)構(gòu)Center for Economc and Policy Research的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人迪恩?貝克寫(xiě)道,，“如果希臘人認(rèn)為希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)能沿襲阿根廷經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)去9年半走過(guò)的路，希臘人肯定立馬愿意違約,?！?/p>

????但希臘很難效仿阿根廷的復(fù)蘇之路。推動(dòng)阿根廷迅速東山再起的一個(gè)重要因素恰恰是希臘所不具備的,，即農(nóng)業(yè)出口,。相比希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)主要依賴(lài)服務(wù)業(yè)，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口幫助阿根廷渡過(guò)了經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期,。阿根廷享有貿(mào)易順差，并受益于農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品的國(guó)際價(jià)格上漲,。阿根廷作為主產(chǎn)國(guó)的大豆,，其價(jià)格已從2003年的200美元/噸升至今日的約500美元/噸。

????除了旅游和航運(yùn)服務(wù),，希臘事實(shí)上出口很少，而且外國(guó)直接投資幾乎為零,。因此,，即便希臘違約，退出歐元體系,，實(shí)行本幣貶值,，也很難看到希臘通過(guò)出口走出經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期,。

????“這些優(yōu)勢(shì)，希臘無(wú)一具備,；而且,，希臘的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題，即便重組也不會(huì)改善,，” 彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）從事歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)和改革研究的雅各布?方克?柯克加德表示,。

????與阿根廷類(lèi)似，1998年違約的俄羅斯?fàn)顩r也在好轉(zhuǎn),。經(jīng)過(guò)十年深度下跌后,，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)正在回升，動(dòng)力也是大宗商品(特別是石油)價(jià)格的上漲,。俄羅斯政府已償還了對(duì)外債務(wù),。雖然2009年,，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)在全球金融危機(jī)期間受挫,，但2000-2010年俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)總體強(qiáng)勁,。

????這倒不是說(shuō)違約永遠(yuǎn)不可行,。希臘的悲哀窘境說(shuō)明每個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體都是不同的,，對(duì)于有些經(jīng)濟(jì)體,，違約可能有益,，有些則不是,。希臘有很多問(wèn)題,，違約不可能是最佳出路,。正如柯克加德所指，愛(ài)爾蘭同樣負(fù)債累累,，但在愛(ài)爾蘭銀行業(yè)承擔(dān)過(guò)多高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)貸款前,，愛(ài)爾蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)非常健康；而希臘的問(wèn)題則是幾十年來(lái)征稅不力,、退休年齡門(mén)檻低及其他不良政策的產(chǎn)物,。

????“他們需要全面改革整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)，而愛(ài)爾蘭……只需改革銀行體系,，恢復(fù)財(cái)力,，籌措更多財(cái)政收入，”他說(shuō),。

????毋庸諱言,，更重要的問(wèn)題是希臘違約對(duì)歐洲和全球其他地區(qū)意味著什么。違約不僅會(huì)嚴(yán)重影響希臘自身經(jīng)濟(jì),，而且很可能導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂(yōu)西班牙,、葡萄牙和意大利等歐元區(qū)周邊國(guó)家也可能違約?！緟⒁?jiàn)《意大利會(huì)步希臘后塵嗎,？》 As Greece goes, so goes Italy?】

????不管怎么看,，違約絕非終南捷徑。

????This week, all eyes are (still) on Greece's debt crisis. The country edges toward a possible default if the government fails to pass an austerity plan that asks citizens to make due with $111 billion worth of budget cuts and asset sales as part of last year's multi-billion euro rescue package.

????Amid the ongoing saga marked by union strikes against the unpopular measures, some have taken the contrarians' view that defaulting might not be so bad for Greece. They point to places like Argentina and Russia, which defaulted and briefly struggled before emerging from their economic ruts unexpectedly well.

????This might put Greeks a little more at ease, but hardly for the right reasons.

????In 2001, Argentina defaulted on $81.8 billion of sovereign debt following months of turmoil in the country's banking system. GDP dropped by 10.9% that year, and the country was locked out of the credit markets. Despite financing challenges, its economy recovered, growing by more than 8% a year since 2003. And Argentina's resilience has led some to hint that Greece could actually follow some of Argentina's playbook.

????"The basic point is that Argentina's economy has done extremely well following its default," writes Dean Baker, co-founder of Washington DC-based think tank Center for Economic and Policy Research. "It is difficult to see why anyone in Greece would not want to default in an instant if they thought Greece's economy would follow the same path as Argentina's economy has over the last 9 ? years."

????Argentina's road to recovery is hardly something Greece could follow, however. One big factor explaining its comeback includes an advantage Greece isn't so lucky to have: Agricultural exports. Whereas the engine driving Greece's economy relies mostly on services, selling agricultural products abroad helped Argentina ride through its downturn. It runs a trade surplus, helped especially by rising global prices for agricultural commodities. Prices for soybeans, of which Argentina is a major producer, have risen from $200 a ton in 2003 to about $500 a ton today.

????,。

????Aside from tourism and shipping services, Greece actually exports very little and has next to no foreign direct investments. So even if Greece defaults, drops the euro and devalues its own currency, it's hard to see how Greece could export its way out of tough economic times.

????"Greece has none of these advantages and fundamentally has a structural growth problem that even a restructuring won't alleviate," says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, whose research includes European economies and reform.

????Similarly, Russia, which defaulted in 1998, is seeing better days. After a decade of steep declines, its economy is on the rebound driven also by higher commodity prices, especially oil. The Russian government has paid back foreign debts. Despite economic setbacks in 2009 amid the global financial crisis, growth has generally been robust throughout the 2000s.

????It's not that default is never the answer. What Greece's sad predicament underscores is that every economy is different and default could work better for some and not others. The problems in Greece are significant and it's unlikely that a default would be the best way out. Kirkegaard makes an interesting point: Whereas debt-ridden Ireland had a very healthy economy before its banks took on too many risky loans, Greece's problem is the product of decades of poor tax enforcement, corruption, low retirement ages and other bad policies.

????"They need to overhaul their entire economy, where Ireland …. merely has to reform its banking system and restore its fiscal finances to raise more revenue," he says.

????Needless to say, the bigger issue is what a Greek default could mean to the rest of Europe and the world at large. Not only could it be ugly for Greece's individual economy, but there's a real possibility that markets will think other peripheral euro-zone countries including Spain, Portugal and Italy, might default too. (See As Greece goes, so goes Italy?)