????蘋果（Apple）將在約兩周后,，即7月19日發(fā)布第三財季財報。據(jù)湯姆遜金融（Thomson Financial）報道,，華爾街的分析師們目前一致認(rèn)為,，蘋果公司每股盈利將達5.69美元，營收有望達到246.7億美元,，分別同比增長62.1%和57.2%,。
????這樣的增長率聽起來也許很不錯，但與蘋果信息網(wǎng)站The Mac Observer上Apple Finance Board論壇里的業(yè)余分析師們所做的預(yù)測相比,，實在不算什么。
????上周末,，羅伯特?保羅?雷濤發(fā)布了蘋果第三財季營收預(yù)測報告,。雷濤領(lǐng)導(dǎo)著30多名Apple Finance Board論壇的活躍成員，這份報告是他們共同做出的,。就我們所知,，雷濤的團隊是世界上最大的非專業(yè)企業(yè)分析師團隊。[《財富》（Fortune）曾在其蘋果季度營收預(yù)測“比賽”中,，列出過雷濤團隊部分成員的數(shù)據(jù),。]他們的預(yù)測頗為有趣，因為他們總比華爾街更為精確,。
????Apple Finance Board預(yù)測蘋果每股盈利將達6.66美元,，營收將為265.56億美元，分別同比增長89.61%和69.14%,。上一財季蘋果每股盈利增長92%,，營收增長82%，可謂飛漲,；與之相比,，本財季略有下降。
????以下列出了雷濤的預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù),。更詳細(xì)的報告請參閱他在Posts At Eventide網(wǎng)站發(fā)布的博客,。具體鏈接為：鏈接1、鏈接2,。 |
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????Apple (AAPL) will report its earnings for the June quarter on July 19, two weeks from today. The current consensus among Wall Street analysts, according to Thomson Financial, is that the company earned $5.69 per share on sales of $24.67 billion, up 62.1% and 57.2%, respectively.
????Impressive as those growth rates might sound, they're anemic compared with what the amateur analysts at The Mac Observer's Apple Finance Board are forecasting.
????Over the weekend, Robert Paul Leitao, who rides herd over 30 active AFB members, posted their estimates for Apple's fiscal Q3. His is, as far as we know, the largest collection of amateur analysts for any company in the world. (Fortune uses a subset of his group for its quarterly Apple earnings smackdown.) Their estimates are of interest because they are invariably more accurate than Wall Street's.
????The AFB consensus is calling for earnings of $6.66 on sales of $26.556 billion, up 89.61% and 69.14%. respectively -- a modest slowdown from last quarter's breakneck earnings growth of 92% and sales growth of 82%.
????We've copied Leitao's spreadsheets below the fold. The details are available on his blog, Posts At Eventide, here and here.
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