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????基金經(jīng)理和分析人士擔(dān)心美國(guó)銀行因?yàn)樾枰I集大量額外資本,，從而不得不以極其低廉的價(jià)格發(fā)行新股,。他們認(rèn)為，該行的財(cái)務(wù)實(shí)力不足,，無(wú)法覆蓋不良抵押貸款帶來(lái)的巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口,。電視節(jié)目主持人、失望的投資者,，甚至是美國(guó)銀行內(nèi)部獲得股票分紅的投行家都認(rèn)為該行前景黯淡,，行將崩潰，對(duì)莫伊尼漢的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力也不抱信心,。在最近的新聞中,，美國(guó)銀行整日遭受抨擊，成了歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)一樣的靶子,。

????巴菲特的觀點(diǎn)卻截然不同：如果美國(guó)銀行真需要他的錢(qián),，伯克希爾反倒不會(huì)投資了。這位伯克希爾董事長(zhǎng)認(rèn)為,，美銀能夠解決當(dāng)前的問(wèn)題,，而且事實(shí)將證明其基本的銀行業(yè)務(wù)盈利能力很強(qiáng)。

????有趣的是,，使政府雇員保險(xiǎn)公司走出困境的是一部“發(fā)電機(jī)”——愛(ài)爾蘭裔美國(guó)經(jīng)理人杰克?拜恩兼具出眾的分析能力和極富感染力的推銷技巧,，每天早上，他都在公司總部的中庭里把帽子高高拋向空中,，像克努特?羅克尼（傳奇美式足球教練——譯注）那樣鼓舞士氣,。金融媒體和多數(shù)華爾街人士都認(rèn)為拜恩會(huì)吃敗仗，但他以業(yè)績(jī)證明他們當(dāng)初看走了眼,。

????伯克希爾對(duì)美銀的投資顯然是對(duì)莫伊尼漢的支持,，正如當(dāng)年給拜恩投下的信任票。莫伊尼漢曾說(shuō)過(guò)美國(guó)銀行幾年內(nèi)有可能賺得250億美元,，如果事實(shí)證明他是正確的,，那伯克希爾的投資利潤(rùn)將超過(guò)100億美元。

????而所有這一切都發(fā)端于巴菲特的回憶：半個(gè)世紀(jì)前使投資者驚慌失措的那場(chǎng)色拉油丑聞。

????譯 小宇

????Fund managers and analysts fear that Bank of America needs to raise lots of additional capital by selling stock, at extremely low prices. They believe the bank lacks the financial strength to cover its big exposure to troubled mortgages. The TV talking heads, disappointed investors, and even investment bankers within BofA who get bonuses in stock and are watching it collapse, take a dim view of its future and Moynihan's leadership. In the current news cycle, the relentlessly negative tilt about Bank of America now rivals the talk about the European debt crisis.

????Buffett takes a different view: Berkshire wouldn't have invested in BofA if it needed his money. The Berkshire chairman reckons that the bank would work through its current problems, and that the underlying banking business will prove highly profitable.

????It's interesting that it took a dynamo to pull GEICO out of its ditch -- an Irish-American executive named Jack Byrne who combined excellent analytical skills with flamboyant salesmanship?? who would heave his hat into the headquarter's atrium every morning and rally the troops like Knute Rockne. The financial press and most of Wall Street thought Byrne would fail, and he proved them wrong.

????Berkshire's BofA investment is clearly an endorsement for Moynihan, just as it was a vote for Byrne. And if Moynihan's claim that BofA will earn as much as $25 billion in a few years proves correct, Berkshire's profits will exceed $10 billion.

????It all started with memories of a salad oil scandal that spooked investors half a century ago.