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????同樣，貝盧斯科尼的下臺也不能解決意大利的麻煩,。雖然這位個人生活繽紛多彩的億萬富翁對于解決意大利財政危機的興趣有時似乎還不如其即將發(fā)布的意大利情歌專輯，但意大利的問題在他任職前就已經(jīng)存在了,。如果意大利想繼續(xù)獲得歐盟救助基金以及歐洲央行（European Central Bank）的幫助,，就需要批準更多嚴厲的緊縮措施,。貝盧斯科尼推動通過的一些緊縮措施已讓該國回到正軌，但這艘迷途的戰(zhàn)艦仍需更多的指引,，才能回到港口,。

????意大利真正的問題并不在領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人——雖然二戰(zhàn)以來意大利已換了60多屆政府，而且問題不斷,，但一直運轉(zhuǎn)正常,。意大利人已習(xí)慣了領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的頻繁更迭，而且不管怎樣意大利依然是歐洲的經(jīng)濟增長引擎,。其“舊世界”經(jīng)濟已成功地讓國民過上了幾代人之前想都不敢想的好日子,，當時有幾百萬絕望而貧窮的意大利移民離開了這個國家，到美國,、阿根廷等地尋找更好的出路,。

????多年來意大利之所以能過上“好日子”，一個很大的原因就是不斷地賣債券——而且是海量債券,。意大利擁有全球第四大債券市場,，未償債券余額1.8萬億歐元。經(jīng)濟實力的下降意味著這個國家只能借更多的錢才能維持原來的好日子,。意大利的負債/GDP比例已處于觸目驚心的120%,，在歐洲僅次于希臘的140%。

????這么高的負債/GDP比率過去從來都沒有出過問題,，直到最近,。就像一個擁有多張低利率信用卡、揮霍慣了的消費者,，意大利習(xí)慣了一缺錢就要求提高信貸額度,。但當信貸危機終結(jié)了寬松貨幣時代，發(fā)債就不那么容易了,。意大利的高主權(quán)債務(wù)評級使其仍能吸引資本投入其流動性尚好的債券市場,，只是要給投資者更高的收益率。

????這是意大利當前問題的根源,。6月份以來,，大型養(yǎng)老基金和買方機構(gòu)開始回避意大利債券投資，使得意大利只能提供更高的債券利率,。意大利的經(jīng)濟模式陷入了困境,，因為該國的經(jīng)濟增長前景的基礎(chǔ)一直是政府永遠能以低利率發(fā)債和用低利率新債換舊債的假設(shè)。如果它必須支付高利率,，破產(chǎn)將不可避免,。

歐洲央行出手相助

????Nor will the ousting of Berlusconi be the answer to Italy's troubles. While it seems that the colorful billionaire is at times more interested in promoting his forthcoming album of Italian love songs than solving his nation's fiscal woes, Italy's problems predate his rule. Tough austerity measures will still need to pass if the country is to receive further assistance from the EU bailout fund and the European Central Bank. Berlusconi has already passed some tough measures that have put the country on the right course, but it still falls short of steering the errant battleship back to port.

????The real trouble with Italy isn't its leadership – after all, the country has functioned as a going concern despite having more than 60 different governments in the post-war era. Italians are used to constant turnover in their leadership and somehow the country has remained an economic engine for Europe. Its "old world" economy has managed to elevate its citizenry into a lifestyle that no one could have imagined just a few generations ago when millions of desperately poor Italian immigrants left the country in search of a better life in places like the United States and Argentina.

????A big reason Italy has been able to live "La Dolce Vita" for as long as it has over the years has been its ability to sell debt – lots of it. Italy is home to the fourth-largest debt market in the world with $1.8 trillion euros outstanding. The nation's shrinking economic power has meant that it has had to borrow more and more money to keep its sweet life going. Italy's debt compared to its GDP currently stands at an alarming 120%, the second-highest in Europe after Greece at 140%.

????This high debt to GDP ratio was never really a problem until recently. Like a profligate spending consumer with several low-interest credit cards, Italy just kept requesting larger and larger credit line increases when it needed quick cash. But when the era of easy money ended with the credit crunch, things started to get pretty hairy. Italy was a highly-rated sovereign so it was still able to attract capital to its liquid debt markets; it just had to offer investors a higher yield.

????This is the root of Italy's current problems. Since June, large pension funds and buy-side shops have shunned Italian debt, forcing Italy to offer even higher interest on its debt. This was a problem for an economic model that was predicated on the belief the country could borrow and roll over its debt at low interest rates ad infinitum. If it had to pay high interest, it would eventually go broke.

Central bankers to the rescue