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????去年大概也是這個時候,，持續(xù)的歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)意外地引來了中國的投資精英們。這個世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的官員們半路殺出,，許諾將支持為債務(wù)所困的西班牙,，并簽訂了價值73億美元的多項協(xié)議，投資涉及從銀行到能源的幾乎所有領(lǐng)域,。此前,，中國也曾承諾支持希臘，簽訂了當(dāng)時被希臘人稱為中國在歐洲的最大一筆單項投資,。.

????所有這些似乎都意味著如果形勢向著不好的方向發(fā)展,，中國是愿意向歐洲伸出援手的。顯然，如今這種擔(dān)心正在變成現(xiàn)實,，歐洲地區(qū)的債務(wù)危機(jī)已從希臘蔓延到了一些規(guī)模更大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體——也就是意大利,。上周三，意大利債券收益率突破了%,，逼近此前曾迫使其他歐元區(qū)國家請求救助的水平,。意大利總理西爾維奧?貝盧斯科尼堅持進(jìn)行選舉、而不是采用過渡政府的方式,，可能令震蕩持續(xù),，加深了歐元區(qū)分裂的擔(dān)憂。

????分析師們認(rèn)為,，這些變化意味著歐元區(qū)危機(jī)已進(jìn)入了一個危險的新階段,。

????但現(xiàn)在歐洲似乎還是遠(yuǎn)看不到白衣騎士的到來。隨著債券危機(jī)繼續(xù)肆虐市場,，上周三華爾街股市收于近3個月以來的最低點,，中國大舉施援的可能性似乎更低了。

????兩周前,，歐洲官員造訪北京,，試圖說服中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人增加對歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（European Financial Stability Facility，簡稱EFSF）的投資,。這個去年成立的基金通過發(fā)售債券為陷入困境的歐元區(qū)國家提供貸款融資,，最近已進(jìn)行了擴(kuò)容，但很多人認(rèn)為仍需更大幅度的擴(kuò)容才能拯救像意大利這樣的規(guī)模更大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,；如今的意大利可能已經(jīng)處于隨時需要救助的狀態(tài),。

????至少眼下，中國打算讓歐洲自己解決債務(wù)問題,，這與幾個月前對希臘和西班牙的大力支持截然不同,。誠然，中國不可能單槍匹馬地解救歐元區(qū),，因為歐元區(qū)債務(wù)問題存在深層次的結(jié)構(gòu)性原因,。但這個東亞巨人是少數(shù)幾個有能力擔(dān)當(dāng)這樣重任的國家之一——中國持有全球最大的外匯儲備，價值3.2萬億美元,。

????中國保持謹(jǐn)慎并不是沒有原因,，但大部分看起來都比較短視。

????比如,，《基督教科學(xué)箴言報》（The Christian Science Monitor）近日就指出,，中國希望對歐元區(qū)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策有更大的影響力——這種想法當(dāng)然有些嚇人，因為歐元區(qū)很多邊緣經(jīng)濟(jì)體都存在結(jié)構(gòu)性缺陷,。即便中國不管怎樣,，最終達(dá)成了一項十分不可能的交易,，并通過提供救助資金換得了在政策上更多的話語權(quán)，可能到頭來對中國也只是一場噩夢,。畢竟,，不同的聲音太多，同時缺乏足夠強(qiáng)大的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力,，這些正是歐洲沒能更快采取行動的主要原因之一,。

????《基督教科學(xué)箴言報》同時指出，中國選擇退縮,，也可能是因為投資歐洲的風(fēng)險和不確定性都太高,。這肯定是讓大多數(shù)投資者苦惱的原因，但中國尤其如此——全球金融危機(jī)期間中國主權(quán)財富基金的海外投資曾遭受巨額損失,，壓力之下,，北京需要進(jìn)行更明智地投資。另外,，中國退縮的原因也可能是正在等待歐洲官員給它以政治上的承諾,，但歐元集團(tuán)主席讓-克洛德?容克早已說過，這不太可能發(fā)生,。

????無論怎樣,，中國在拯救歐元區(qū)行動中扮演更重要的角色，得大于失,。

????歐元區(qū)是中國最大的出口市場,，隨著債務(wù)危機(jī)延續(xù)，繼續(xù)侵蝕歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,，中國自身的經(jīng)濟(jì)健康也可能受到影響,。而且，正如加州大學(xué)（University of California）圣地亞哥分校的中國問題專家巴里?諾頓今年早些時候指出的那樣,，救助歐洲可以改善中國的國際形象。中國長期以來一直被指責(zé)人為低估人民幣匯率,，持有巨額外匯儲備,。如果中國能從這些儲備中拿出一部分幫幫歐洲，乃至整個世界,，或許能減輕它承受的壓力,。

????雖然中國出手相助很可能激發(fā)歐洲人的抵觸情緒（就像上個月法國總統(tǒng)薩科齊呼吁中國給予幫助時一樣），但只有歐洲能更開放地接納東方鄰居,，歐元區(qū)才有可能避免更嚴(yán)重的危機(jī),。畢竟，歐洲央行（European Central Bank）已經(jīng)一再強(qiáng)調(diào),，它沒有義務(wù)作為最后貸款人,，同時也拒絕提高紙幣的發(fā)行量,。歐洲救助基金的規(guī)模顯然還不夠，而歐元區(qū)財長們也還沒有提出清晰的進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)容的計劃,。

????如果中國不愿拍馬來救,，很難想象誰還能擔(dān)此重任。

????It was around this time last year when Europe's ongoing debt crisis unexpectedly drew the investment savvy of China. Officials from the world's second-largest economy swooped in, promising to back debt-troubled Spain by signing $7.3 billion in deals that spanned investments in everything from banking to energy. This followed China's pledge to back Greece, where officials signed off on what Greeks at the time called the biggest single investment by China in Europe.

????All this implied that China was willing to come to Europe's rescue if things took a turn for the worse. Needless to say, things are moving in that direction, as the region's debt troubles spread beyond Greece and into much bigger economies – namely, Italy. On Wednesday, yields on Italian bonds surpassed 7%, approaching levels that previously sent other euro zone nations scrambling for bailouts. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's insistence on elections instead of an interim government threatened to prolong the instability and fanned fears of a split in the euro zone.

????The developments, analysts have suggested, signal a dangerous new phase in the euro zone crisis.

????But it seems as though Europe's white knight is far from sight. And as the debt crisis continue to roil markets, sending stocks on Wall Street tumbling to their worst finish Wednesday in nearly three months, it looks less likely that China will step in in any big way.

????Last week, European officials traveled to Beijing to persuade China's leaders to beef up investments in the European Financial Stability Facility, established last year to sell bonds to finance loans for distressed euro nations. The fund's powers were recently expanded, but many still think it needs to be much bigger to rescue larger economies like Italy, which could very well need a bailout any day now.

????For now at least, China has left Europe dealing with its own debt woes – a marked reversal of the bold backings of Greece and Spain months earlier. Admittedly, China can't single-handedly save the euro zone, as the region's underlying debt problems are also deeply structural. But the East Asian giant is one of the few nations well positioned to play a major role --China holds the world's largest foreign exchange reserves at $3.2 trillion.

????There are several reasons why China remains cautious, but much of it seems shortsighted.

????For one, as highlighted in The Christian Science Monitor recently, China wants more influence on economic policy over euro zone nations – certainly a scary thought, given how structurally flawed many of the peripheral economies are. Even if China somehow works out a very unlikely deal to have more say over policy in exchange for rescue funds, this would likely turn out to be a nightmare. After all, having too many voices and not enough strong leadership is one of the chief reasons why officials in Europe haven't been able to act quicker.

????China's pullback could also be a result of a decision that investing in Europe might be too risky and uncertain, as the Monitor has also pointed out. That's something obviously irking most other investors, but especially China as its sovereign wealth fund has come under scrutiny. During the global financial crisis, overseas investments suffered large losses and so Beijing is under pressure to make wiser investments. It could also be that China is waiting for European officials to grant it political confessions, which Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker has said is unlikely to happen.

????Whatever its hold-ups, China has more to gain than lose by playing a bigger role in the euro zone's rescue.

????The area is China's largest export market, so its own economic health is at stake as the ongoing debt crisis continues to erode growth in the euro zone. What's more, as China expert Barry Naughton from the University of California in San Diego pointed out earlier this year, helping Europe could boost China's global image. The country has long been criticized for artificially undervaluing its currency and holding vast foreign currency reserves. Giving up some of those reserves to help Europe, and by extension, the world at large, could potentially lift pressures on China.

????And while Chinese aid could easily incite European opposition (as was the case last month when French President Nicolas Sarkozy called on China to help), the euro zone may be able to avoid something far more disastrous if only it were more open to its eastern neighbors. After all, the European Central Bank has repeatedly said it has no mandate to act as the lender of last resort and has refused to print money. The EU bailout fund is clearly inadequate, while the region's finance ministers have presented no clear plans on how to make it bigger.

????If China doesn't step up, it's hard to think who could.