德國(guó)離不開(kāi)疲弱的成員國(guó)
????之所以出現(xiàn)這樣的局面可能是因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)人們不愿觸及的真相：德國(guó)人從歐元受益頗多——?dú)W元讓他們坐享匯率人為低估優(yōu)勢(shì),。通常人們都不愿接受弱勢(shì)貨幣——它會(huì)讓海外度假活動(dòng)等變得更為昂貴,。但對(duì)于德國(guó)而言，弱勢(shì)貨幣是通往經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮不可或缺的一張船票,。德國(guó)退出歐元無(wú)異于搬起石頭砸自己的腳,。
????德國(guó)擁有優(yōu)厚的社會(huì)保障、相對(duì)較高的工資,，以及僅有8,000萬(wàn)的人口,，同時(shí)也是全球第二大出口國(guó)。歐元在這其中扮演了重要角色,。自從1999年德國(guó)采用歐元以來(lái),，德國(guó)出口額已經(jīng)翻了一倍還多，從約4,690億歐元升至2010年的1萬(wàn)多億歐元,。這樣的增速是歐元區(qū)其他國(guó)家的兩倍,。雖然德國(guó)人的東西質(zhì)量確實(shí)不錯(cuò)，但他們能以有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的價(jià)格出口這么多商品是因?yàn)樗麄兊呢泿畔鄬?duì)便宜,。
????德國(guó)的出口引擎左右開(kāi)弓,。首先,，它擴(kuò)大了對(duì)非歐元區(qū)國(guó)家的出口。因?yàn)槿绻３制渌麠l件不變,，實(shí)際的歐元匯率要低于德國(guó)繼續(xù)沿用馬克時(shí)的匯率,。這是因?yàn)闅W元覆蓋17個(gè)國(guó)家，期中大部分國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力較弱,，拉低了歐元相對(duì)于美元和英鎊的匯率,。中國(guó)為保出口而人為壓低匯率已飽受詬病。德國(guó)卻不必如此——它只需坐下來(lái),，看著另一個(gè)歐元區(qū)弱國(guó)陷入危機(jī),，它的出口在世界舞臺(tái)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力就會(huì)得到提高。
????我們可以看看德國(guó)最新的出口數(shù)據(jù),。雖然歐元區(qū)仍陷于危機(jī)之中,，雖然整個(gè)地區(qū)看來(lái)又可能進(jìn)入一輪衰退，9月份德國(guó)出口較前月反而增長(zhǎng)了近1%至913億歐元,，達(dá)到有數(shù)據(jù)記錄以來(lái)的最高水平,。8月份，危機(jī)惡化時(shí),，出口較前月增長(zhǎng)0.2%,。另一方面，9月份德國(guó)進(jìn)口卻減少0.8%,，高漲的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差繼續(xù)膨脹,。通常，這樣的情況會(huì)推動(dòng)德國(guó)貨幣升值,，但由于南歐危機(jī)重重,，歐元貶值，德國(guó)出口甚至更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力了,。
????其次,，弱勢(shì)歐元給了德國(guó)人一個(gè)更大的商品銷(xiāo)售市場(chǎng)。德國(guó)約2/3的出口面向歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)——只是歐元區(qū)的17個(gè)成員國(guó),，不是歐盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的35個(gè)成員國(guó),。單一貨幣使得交易更加簡(jiǎn)單，因?yàn)樗藚R率風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。德國(guó)匯率低估意味著西班牙,、希臘等經(jīng)濟(jì)較弱的國(guó)家匯率高估，讓這些國(guó)家更能買(mǎi)得起德國(guó)商品,。因此,，難怪德國(guó)汽車(chē)、德國(guó)白色家電,、德國(guó)電子產(chǎn)品和德國(guó)機(jī)械設(shè)備主導(dǎo)了歐元區(qū)市場(chǎng),。
????要論共同點(diǎn),，希臘與中東鄰國(guó)的共同點(diǎn)可能遠(yuǎn)多于它與歐元區(qū)伙伴國(guó)的共同點(diǎn)，它加入歐元區(qū)之初就已經(jīng)埋下了禍根,。新的信貸額度讓希臘民眾和政府開(kāi)始了花錢(qián)如流水的日子,。關(guān)于希臘官僚機(jī)構(gòu)的高工資已經(jīng)是老生常談。這是事實(shí),，但這些只是過(guò)去十年這個(gè)國(guó)家所欠巨額債務(wù)的一部分。這個(gè)國(guó)家還新修了大量道路,、機(jī)場(chǎng),、以及地鐵系統(tǒng)，并為軍隊(duì)采購(gòu)了最先進(jìn)的武器,。這些項(xiàng)目的背后大多是德國(guó)公司,。 |
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Germany relies on the weakest members
????It's probably because of a truth that no one likes to talk about: Germans have benefitted greatly from the euro -- it's given them an artificially weak currency. Normally, one would hate to be paid in a weak currency -- among other things, it makes their vacations abroad more expensive. But for Germany, a weak currency has been its ticket to prosperity. If the Germans would leave the euro, they would actually be shooting themselves in the foot.
????Consider that Germany, which has a generous social safety net, relatively high wages and just 80 million people, is the world's second-largest exporting country. The euro has played a significant part in this. German exports have more than doubled since they went on the euro in 1999, going from around 469 billion euros to well over a trillion euros in 2010. The rate of growth was also twice as fast as other nations in the zone. While there is no doubt that the Germans make quality stuff, the reason they are able to export so much at competitive price points is because they are operating with a relatively cheap currency.
????Germany's export engine works two ways. First, it exports more to non-eurozone countries because the exchange rate of the euro is weaker than it would be, all things being equal, if it had stayed on the Deutsche Mark. That's because the euro encompasses 17 nations, many of which are "weak," therefore bringing down the value of the currency relative to the dollar and the pound. China gets a lot of flak for artificially manipulating its currency to maintain its exports. Germany doesn't have to do that – all it needs to do is sit back and watch another weak eurozone nation go down in flames and its exports get more competitive on the world stage.
????Take the latest export data out of Germany. Even though the eurozone is in crisis and the region looks to be headed for another recession, German exports in September rose nearly 1% from the previous month to 91.3 billion euros, which is the highest level since records began. In August, when the crisis hit overdrive, exports were up 0.2% from the previous month. Meanwhile, imports into Germany fell 0.8% for September, increasing the nations burgeoning current account surplus. Normally that would cause Germany's currency to strengthen, but since there was trouble down south, the euro weakened, making German exports even more competitive.
????The second way the euro helps Germany is that it has given them a much larger market to dump their goods. Around two-thirds of German exports go to members of the eurozone – that's just the 17 members part of the common currency, not the 35 that are part of the European Union's free trade area. The euro makes business much simpler as it eliminates foreign exchange risk. An artificially low euro in Germany means an artificially high euro in weaker countries like Spain and Greece. That means those countries can afford to buy German goods. It's therefore no wonder why German cars, white goods, electronics and machinery dominate the eurozone.
????In Greece, a country that arguably shares much more in common with its Middle Eastern neighbors than its eurozone partners, being on the common currency has been a bit of a curse. With access to new credit lines, the Greek populace and its government went on a spending spree. Much has been discussed about how the Greek bureaucracy paid itself lavish wages. While true, that is just part of the massive sovereign debt bill the country rang up in the past decade. The country also paved lots of roads, constructed new airports, tunneled new subway systems and procured state-of-the-art weapons for its military. Behind most of these projects were German companies. |
