????施羅德（Schroders）新興市場集團(tuán)駐倫敦的產(chǎn)品經(jīng)理艾倫?埃爾表示,，兩個(gè)涵蓋更廣的指數(shù)可以更清楚地解釋直接投資新興市場的理由。 兩個(gè)股票指數(shù)——富時(shí)跨國企業(yè)指數(shù)（FTSE Multinationals Index,，成份股為海外營收占比不低于30%的跨國企業(yè)）和富時(shí)新興市場指數(shù)（FTSE emerging market index,，成份股為幾個(gè)新興市場的本土公司）過去10年都給了投資者不錯(cuò)的回報(bào)。但在這期間,，購買新興市場公司股票的投資者年度回報(bào)率卻高出13個(gè)百分點(diǎn),，年度回報(bào)率達(dá)到了19%?！霸诎l(fā)達(dá)市場中,，傾向于新興市場的公司比一般公司要好，”埃爾稱,?！暗€是趕不上新興（市場）本土的公司?！?/p>
估值便宜且波動(dòng)性降低
????赫德斯和施羅德都銷售立足于新興市場的基金,，因此他們的觀點(diǎn)并非沒有偏見。不過,，不管贊同哪一方的觀點(diǎn),，有三點(diǎn)是無可爭議的。第一,，新興市場指數(shù)的估值低于像標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（S&P 500）這樣的發(fā)達(dá)市場指數(shù),。第二，如今新興市場股票的波動(dòng)性較十年前已經(jīng)大大降低,。第三,，新興市場的股息增長率是發(fā)達(dá)市場的近三倍。
????經(jīng)過過去一年的大跌之后,，摩根士丹利新興市場指數(shù)（MSCI Emerging Markets index）當(dāng)前的動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率為9倍,，而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)為12.5倍。僅憑這一數(shù)據(jù),，并不足以買進(jìn)（新興市場股票）,。投資者依然很擔(dān)心中國和巴西的市場,，以及發(fā)達(dá)國家大規(guī)模去杠桿化將對(duì)新興國家的影響。
????“新興市場資產(chǎn)的估值還沒有便宜到投資者可以無視（08年）那場危機(jī)的地步,，” 匯豐（HSBC）策略師帕布羅?哥德伯格在最近發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中表示,。不過，縮水的估值確實(shí)能給新的投資者一個(gè)較低的門檻,，讓他們進(jìn)入這個(gè)曾經(jīng)高漲的市場,。此外，哥德伯格還看到了一些希望,?！靶屡d市場不全都是壞消息。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期,，但衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然存在,，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)被夸大了，新興市場的決策層面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境惡化正在積極應(yīng)對(duì),?！?/p> |
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????Broader indexes make clearer the argument for direct exposure, says Alan Ayres of Schroders' emerging markets group in London. Two stock indexes, the FTSE Multinationals index, which comprises companies with at least 30% of sales earned outside their home market, and the FTSE emerging market index, which includes companies based directly in several developing markets, each paid investors well over the past decade. But investors who bought emerging markets companies earned 13 more percentage points annually over the period, for a 19% annual gain. "Developed companies with that bias towards emerging markets do better than normal developed companies," Ayres says, "but not as well as emerging [market] companies."
Cheap and less volatile
????Both Holderith and Schroders market funds based on emerging markets, so their opinions aren't without biases. But whatever side you agree with, three things aren't debatable. First, emerging market indices are cheaper than developed market ones like the S&P 500. Second, emerging market stocks are far less volatile than they were just a decade ago. Third, dividends are growing nearly three times as fast in emerging markets than in developed ones.
????After slumping for the past year, the MSCI Emerging Markets index trades at 9 times expected earnings over the next 12 months compared to 12.5 times for the S&P 500. The data alone aren't a case to buy. Investors are still plenty worried about markets in China and Brazil, and the effect massive deleveraging in developed countries will have on emerging countries.
????"Valuations of emerging markets assets are not cheap enough to suggest that investors should look through the crisis," HSBC strategist Pablo Goldberg writes in a recent report. Still, reduced valuations do offer new investors a reduced entry point into formerly skyrocketing markets. Goldberg also offers some hope. "Yet not all is bad news out there. US economic data have surprised on the upside but recession risks remain, fears of a China hard landing are exaggerated and emerging market policymakers are reacting to a weaker economic backdrop." |
