????法國(guó)的問題是它靠借錢過日子的時(shí)間太長(zhǎng)了。雖然還不像意大利那么糟糕,，但法國(guó)的負(fù)債水平相對(duì)于其經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出也已很高了,。法國(guó)政府總負(fù)債約為1.3萬億歐元，負(fù)債/GDP比率約83%,。相比希臘（140%）,、意大利（120%）之流，法國(guó)的負(fù)債/GDP比率仍相對(duì)較低,，但對(duì)于一個(gè)擁有完美AAA評(píng)級(jí)的國(guó)家來說還是太高——遠(yuǎn)高于今夏剛剛失去AAA評(píng)級(jí)的美國(guó)。
????假如法國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景強(qiáng)勁,，這樣的負(fù)債/GDP比率根本就不是問題,，但如今的法國(guó)在這方面面臨著嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。法國(guó)一度強(qiáng)大的制造業(yè)近年已經(jīng)開始走下坡路,，導(dǎo)致法國(guó)進(jìn)口的商業(yè)日益增多,。曾幾何時(shí)法國(guó)擁有巨額的貿(mào)易順差，如今卻背負(fù)著巨額貿(mào)易逆差,。今年前6個(gè)月法國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差高達(dá)375億歐元,。這個(gè)數(shù)字固然龐大，但真正麻煩的問題是其速長(zhǎng)之快,，因?yàn)檫@個(gè)數(shù)字較去年同期增長(zhǎng)了36%,。
????法國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力成本高，似乎是出口下降背后的原因,。德國(guó)人在歐元區(qū)內(nèi)外的貿(mào)易中都挫敗了法國(guó)人,。法國(guó)人輸在了兩方面。首先,，法國(guó)勞動(dòng)力的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力降低,。2000年，法國(guó)工人比德國(guó)工人的收入低8%,，如今法國(guó)工人比德國(guó)工人收入高10%,。其次，現(xiàn)在法國(guó)對(duì)德貿(mào)易每個(gè)月逆差約為10億歐元,，相比2004年完全掉了個(gè),，當(dāng)時(shí)德國(guó)對(duì)法貿(mào)易每個(gè)月逆差數(shù)以10億歐元計(jì)。
????法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)到底怎么了,？政府規(guī)定的每周35小時(shí)工作制自然是個(gè)問題,，但情況要比這復(fù)雜得多。法國(guó)的政府支出水平在歐元區(qū)內(nèi)最高,，約占GDP的54%,。如此高水平的政府支出是為了支撐法國(guó)優(yōu)厚的福利體系，而資金來源則是負(fù)債和高稅收,。企業(yè)稅負(fù)重導(dǎo)致法國(guó)商品十分昂貴,，最終在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上失去了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,。據(jù)法國(guó)最大的雇主協(xié)會(huì)MEDEF的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，當(dāng)今法國(guó)的總勞動(dòng)成本有約一半用于支撐法國(guó)的福利體系,，而與其相鄰的德國(guó)這一比例僅為28%,。
????市場(chǎng)原本指望法國(guó)終于能下定決心削減開支，大幅縮減社會(huì)保障,。結(jié)果法國(guó)給出的方案卻指望靠加稅來解決問題,。大幅削減政府開支、放寬勞動(dòng)法對(duì)解決法國(guó)的財(cái)政困境很有幫助,。這么做需要政府向該國(guó)強(qiáng)大的工會(huì)組織攤牌,，然而，即使是保守的尼古拉?薩科齊總統(tǒng)眼下似乎也不愿這樣做,。
????上周三,，法國(guó)債券的保險(xiǎn)成本再度升至約255個(gè)基點(diǎn)。法國(guó)債券的收益率現(xiàn)已遠(yuǎn)高于4%,， 相對(duì)于德國(guó)債券處于歷史高位,。如果法國(guó)在解決經(jīng)濟(jì)問題方面遲遲不動(dòng)真格，法國(guó)的借貸成本將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)直到難以為繼,。這樣的一場(chǎng)危機(jī)肯定會(huì)進(jìn)一步讓歐元的前景岌岌可危,。 |
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????France's problem is that it simply has been living beyond its means for way too long. While not as bad as Italy, France has a very high debt compared to its economic output. Its total government debt of around 1.3 trillion euros equates to a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 83%. That is relatively low in comparison to the likes of Greece, which is at 140%, and Italy, which is at 120%, but it is high for a country that has a perfect triple-A credit rating – much higher than the United States, which lost its triple-A rating earlier this summer.
????If France's economic growth prospects were strong, then its debt-to-GDP ratio wouldn't be an issue, but the country is facing some serious challenges on that front. France's once strong manufacturing sector has decayed in recent years causing it to import increasingly more goods. Where once the country ran large trade surpluses, it now runs large deficits. In the first six months of this year France had a trade deficit of 37.5 billion euros. While that's a large number, what's really troubling is how fast it has grown, up 36% compared to the same time last year.
????France's high labor costs seem to be behind the drop off in exports. The Germans have trounced the French in both internal and external eurozone trade. France is actually helping the Germans win in two ways. First, it has allowed its workforce to become less competitive. In 2000, French workers were paid 8% less than German workers. Now, French workers are paid 10% more than German workers. Second, France runs a trade deficit with Germany of around 1 billion euros a month. That is a complete reversal from 2004 when it was Germany that was running the billion-euro-a-month trade deficit with France.
????What has happened to the French economy? The 35-hour government mandated work week surely hasn't helped matters much, but it goes deeper. France has the highest level of government spending in the eurozone at around 54% of GDP. That high level of spending goes to support the generous French welfare state, which is funded through borrowing and high taxes. Those taxes are passed through businesses, making French goods very expensive and ultimately uncompetitive on the world market. Today, around half of the gross labor costs in France go to prop up the French welfare state, while it is just 28% in neighboring Germany, according to MEDEF, France's largest union of employers.
????The market was looking for France to finally announce plans to reduce its spending and force through meaningful cuts in its social safety net. Instead, it got a plan where France would try to tax its way out of its problems. Meaningful cuts in government spending, followed by liberalization of the nation's labor laws, will go a long way to solving France's fiscal dilemma. That would require a showdown with the country's powerful unions, something that not even conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy seems to have the stomach for at this point.
????The cost to insure French debt jumped again on Wednesday to around 255 basis points. Yields on French debt are now well above 4% and are at historic highs versus German bonds. Until France gets real about its economic issues, it will see its borrowing costs continue to increase until it becomes way too expensive to maintain. Such a crisis would definitely put the euro's future in peril. |
