????過(guò)去一年幫助推高歐元的最后一個(gè)因素是市場(chǎng)盲目相信歐洲政界不會(huì)愚蠢到任由歐元崩潰,。雖然過(guò)去一個(gè)月這方面的信心顯著下降——最近10年期比利時(shí)、法國(guó)和德國(guó)債券的拍賣(mài)遇冷——但上周股市的反彈表明很多人仍相信,，一切都會(huì)好起來(lái),。所有的眼睛都盯著本周五的歐盟峰會(huì),，分析人士正，這可能是挽救歐元的最佳機(jī)會(huì),，同時(shí)也是最后的機(jī)會(huì)之一,。
歐元的出路在哪里
????身處風(fēng)暴之中是很難看清方向的，但有一件事是肯定的：一談到歐元區(qū),，所有人都立刻變得悲觀(guān)。極端悲觀(guān)者認(rèn)為,，歐元區(qū)的結(jié)構(gòu)性和政治性問(wèn)題大到難以解決,，歐元將在今后幾周內(nèi)驟然瓦解。稍樂(lè)觀(guān)一些的認(rèn)為,，經(jīng)過(guò)幾年經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退后，意大利,、西班牙和希臘將退出歐元區(qū),，留下經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力較強(qiáng)的幾個(gè)國(guó)家。最樂(lè)觀(guān)的則希望歐洲央行（European Central Bank）能挺身而出,，購(gòu)買(mǎi)西班牙和意大利的壞賬，便于政界協(xié)商條約和修改法規(guī),，實(shí)現(xiàn)在德國(guó)牽頭下歐洲在財(cái)政上和理念上更緊密地結(jié)合,。
????在某種方式上，更緊密的財(cái)政聯(lián)盟意味著歐元完成了一個(gè)輪回：從最初的政治聯(lián)盟,，到定義較窄的貨幣聯(lián)盟，再回到政治聯(lián)盟,。這樣的前景會(huì)讓地區(qū)內(nèi)的小國(guó)感到緊張,，它們擔(dān)心主權(quán)會(huì)受到侵害。但如果該地區(qū)要保住共同貨幣,，現(xiàn)在需要的可能正是這樣的舉措,。
????歐元的近期走勢(shì)可能取決于歐洲央行領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人宣布的行動(dòng)意愿到底有多堅(jiān)決。交易員們表示,，強(qiáng)硬的表態(tài)將使歐元匯率維持在5年交易區(qū)間內(nèi),，而空洞的陳詞濫調(diào)則會(huì)把它推上火山口。 |
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????A final factor that may have helped prop up the euro over the past year is a measure of blind confidence that European politicians won't be stupid enough to let the euro fail. Though the past month marked a significant erosion of confidence on this front -- investors recently turned the other way at auctions of ten-year Belgian, French, and German bonds -- last week's equity rally suggests that many people still think that all will end well. All eyes are on Friday's EU summit, which analysts say could be one of the last, best opportunities to save the euro.
What's next for the euro
????It's hard to have perspective in the midst of a storm, but one thing is for certain: everyone is a bear right now when it comes to the eurozone. The die-hard bears believe that the eurozone's structural and political problems are too big to solve and that the euro will suddenly dissolve in the next few weeks. Less dramatic bears think that after a few recessionary years, Italy, Spain, and Greece will exit the euro, leaving the stronger countries bound together. The more optimistic bears hope that the European Central Bank will step up and buy up bad debt from Spain and Italy, which will allow politicians to negotiate their treaties and change statutes to bring Europe fiscally and thus ideologically closer together, with Germany at the helm.
????In a way, a tighter fiscal union would represent the euro coming full-circle: from its origins as a political union, to a more narrowly defined monetary one, and back to a political union. This is a frightening prospect for the region's smaller states, which fear an erosion of sovereignty. Yet it is likely needed now if the region is to retain its common currency.
????As for the resilient euro, its near-term future will likely hinge on the strength with which ECB leaders declare their willingness to act now. A firm commitment, traders say, could keep the currency within its five-year trading band. Empty rhetoric, on the other hand, could cause it to finally crater. |
