押注石油,，還是人口,？
????對(duì)于仍留在這個(gè)地區(qū)的、勇敢的投資者們,，他們?cè)贛ENA國(guó)家的投資要么是押注于海灣國(guó)家（沙特,、阿曼、卡塔爾,、科威特,、巴林和阿聯(lián)酋）主產(chǎn)的石油和天然氣價(jià)格，要么是押注于人口更稠密的北非國(guó)家未來(lái)的人口結(jié)構(gòu)趨勢(shì)——摩洛哥,、阿爾及利亞,、突尼斯、利比亞,、埃及、蘇丹,、黎巴嫩,、敘利亞和約旦，這些國(guó)家中有幾個(gè)（如埃及）是石油凈進(jìn)口國(guó),。
????世界銀行（World Bank）現(xiàn)預(yù)計(jì)MENA地區(qū)2011年將增長(zhǎng)3.6%,，主要得益于海灣地區(qū)產(chǎn)油大國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。（在突尼斯和埃及長(zhǎng)期執(zhí)政的政府倒臺(tái)以前，世界銀行的預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速是5%,。）阿聯(lián)酋迪拜一家金融咨詢(xún)公司Isthmus Partners的合伙人哈維爾?切爾維諾表示,，過(guò)去一年左右海灣經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)企穩(wěn)。沙特和阿聯(lián)酋的房地產(chǎn)投資已企穩(wěn),，電信公司,，像沙特的Mobily和卡塔爾的Qtel近來(lái)表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)?！霸谖覀兛磥?lái),，敘利亞和埃及發(fā)生的事情很遙遠(yuǎn)，就跟遠(yuǎn)在紐約的人看這兩個(gè)國(guó)家一樣,，”切爾維諾補(bǔ)充稱(chēng),。他說(shuō)，相反倒是巴林不那么劇烈的,、但持續(xù)不斷的政治沖突對(duì)于海灣投資者而言更為緊迫,。
????投資北非國(guó)家的依據(jù)是它們龐大、年輕以及（很多地方）教育程度良好的人口,。這么龐大的工人,、消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)家群體需要就業(yè)和收入來(lái)滿(mǎn)足個(gè)人和家庭支出需要,。這就意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),，對(duì)資本投資者而言則意味著機(jī)會(huì),，當(dāng)然,，前提是投資者愿意承擔(dān)投資“前沿”市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),，因?yàn)槠渲泻芏嗍袌?chǎng)可能還沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)股票交易所,，也可能缺乏可信賴(lài)的法律體系,。
????重大的問(wèn)題是長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)主導(dǎo)阿拉伯政壇的獨(dú)裁者和君主們不想放棄對(duì)所在國(guó)家政治或經(jīng)濟(jì)的控制,，盡管他們?cè)谶^(guò)去幾年采取了經(jīng)濟(jì)自由化舉措,。難以數(shù)計(jì)官僚和官員們同樣不愿意,，因?yàn)樗麄儾幌敕艞墢纳倘藗兡抢铽@得的回扣和好處。事實(shí)上,，“阿拉伯之春”的導(dǎo)火索之一就是一位美國(guó)外交官在一份遭到泄露的外交電報(bào)中稱(chēng),，突尼斯“似乎一半的”商界精英都是總統(tǒng)本?阿里的家族成員,。一旦政府系統(tǒng)老邁的官僚們?cè)僖矡o(wú)力為本國(guó)百姓提供公共部門(mén)工作機(jī)會(huì)和福利而垮臺(tái)后，真正意義上的阿拉伯之春就開(kāi)始了。 |
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A bet on oil or on people?
????For the hardy investors who have stayed in the region, their investments in MENA countries boil down to either a bet on the price of oil and natural gas produced mainly by the Persian Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates), or a bet on the demographics of the more densely populated countries of north Africa – Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan, several of which (Egypt, for instance) are net oil importers.
????The World Bank expects the MENA region to grow 3.6% in 2011, mostly from gains by big oil producers of the Gulf. (Before the fall of longtime governments in Tunisia and Egypt the World Bank had predicted 5% growth.) Javier Cervino, a partner in Isthmus Partners, a financial consultancy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, says the Gulf economy has stabilized over the last year or so. Real estate investment in Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. has stabilized and telecoms like Saudi Arabia's Mobily and Qatar's Qtel have done well lately. "From our point of view the events in Syria and Egypt seem as far away as they would to someone in New York," Cervino adds. Less explosive but still simmering political conflict in Bahrain, he says, was more urgent to Gulf investors.
????The investment argument for the North African countries is based on their large, youthful and in many places well-educated populations. This huge pool of workers, consumers and entrepreneurs wants jobs and income to spend on themselves and their families. That means economic growth and thus opportunity for investors who can supply the capital -- and are willing to take the risks that come with investing in "frontier" markets, many of which lack stock exchanges or trustworthy legal systems.
????The big problem is that the despots and monarchs who have long dominated Arab politics (recent moves toward economic liberalization over the last few years aside) don't want to give up either political or economic control of their countries. Neither do the countless bureaucrats and officials who rely on payoffs and kickbacks from business people. One of the initial sparks for the Arab Spring was the leak of a cable in which a U.S. diplomat commented that "seemingly half " the business elite of Tunisia were members of President Ben Ali's family. The Arab Spring began in earnest when the old politics of governments being able to buy off their populations with public sector jobs and subsidies finally collapsed. |
