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四大當(dāng)家投資品種新年行情預(yù)測(cè)大碰撞
作者:
NIN-HAI TSENG
時(shí)間:
2011年12月30日
來(lái)源: 財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)
位置：
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隨著新年鐘聲即將敲響,，我們有理由樂(lè)觀,，也有理由謹(jǐn)慎。房產(chǎn),、股票,、黃金、石油明年走勢(shì)如何,？4個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),，8種觀點(diǎn)：你是看漲,，還是看跌,？
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美國(guó)樓市：看跌
????不是所有預(yù)測(cè)都這樣樂(lè)觀。很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家估計(jì)2012年的美國(guó)樓市相比前幾年的低迷走勢(shì)不會(huì)有太大改觀,。穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?贊迪預(yù)計(jì),，住房?jī)r(jià)格將繼續(xù)下跌4%至5%。而德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的分析師們預(yù)計(jì),，全美平均房?jī)r(jià)“可能繼續(xù)下滑”,，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)需要更多時(shí)間來(lái)消化過(guò)多的空屋庫(kù)存，目前空屋庫(kù)存量仍比歷史水平多出約100萬(wàn)套,。
????另外,，還有所謂的“影子庫(kù)存”，即仍處于止贖流程,、尚未進(jìn)入樓市的房屋,。尚不確定這部分庫(kù)存會(huì)給樓市帶來(lái)怎樣的影響，但很多人擔(dān)心它會(huì)進(jìn)一步壓低房?jī)r(jià)，推遲樓市的復(fù)蘇,。 |
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U.S. Housing: Bear
????Not every forecast is so rosy. Plenty of economists are betting that 2012's housing market won't be much different than the lackluster market of previous years. Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi says he expects home prices to fall another 4% to 5%. And analysts at Deutsche Bank forecast that national home prices on average will "likely drift still slower," as the market needs more time to run off the excess stock of vacant homes, which remains about one million units above historical trends.
????And then there's the so-called "shadow inventory," or the onslaught of homes that are still going through the foreclosure process and haven't made their way into the housing market. It's uncertain what the implications are for the housing market, but many worry it could further depress prices and prolong a recovery. |
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