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????過去三十年,，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長令人矚目,。但更令人矚目的是，近幾年中國政府駕馭經(jīng)濟(jì),，維持強(qiáng)勁增長的舉措,。

????2008、2009年,，全球其他地區(qū)深陷經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之時(shí)，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在以每年超過9%的速度增長,。而且,，讓很多預(yù)測(cè)人士意外的是，本周早些時(shí)候中國政府又宣布,，去年年末中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速超過預(yù)期,。盡管歐債危機(jī)持續(xù)發(fā)展讓投資者失去信心，去年第四季度中國的GDP增速仍達(dá)到了8.9%,。不可否認(rèn),，當(dāng)季增速為兩年半以來最低，但仍高于大多數(shù)人的預(yù)期,。而且,，可能更重要的是，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速高于8%,，這個(gè)數(shù)字是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為創(chuàng)造足夠就業(yè)所需的最低值,。

????顯然，中國有能力實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,。但未來幾個(gè)月（隨著歐債危機(jī)繼續(xù)演變）,，中國政府要實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所謂的“軟著陸”，難度將大大增加,。這項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)包括既要將GDP增速從兩位數(shù)降至適度的個(gè)位數(shù)（4%-7%）,，控制好通脹，同時(shí)還要為火爆的樓市降溫,，但又不能造成樓市崩盤,。

????這些年來,，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)之所以有如此出眾的表現(xiàn)，是因?yàn)橹袊?dú)有的經(jīng)濟(jì)微調(diào)能力,，保證公共部門和私營部門的需求都得到滿足,。2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后，中國推出了一個(gè)龐大的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃,，基本上避免了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。中國政府投資了幾十億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目，鼓勵(lì)銀行放貸,，并向從住宅到拔地而起的辦公樓在內(nèi)的所有建設(shè)項(xiàng)目提供融資,。而且，2010年,，最發(fā)達(dá)國家還正在苦苦掙扎如何走出全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的時(shí)候,，中國已超過日本，成為僅次于美國的全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,。

????但是,，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長步伐太快了。特別是房價(jià)飆升,，讓房子成了無數(shù)人遙不可及的夢(mèng)想,。很多投資者開始擔(dān)憂房地產(chǎn)泡沫是否會(huì)破裂，隨后,，中國政府實(shí)施了嚴(yán)厲的樓市調(diào)控政策,，包括上調(diào)利率和收緊貸款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)等。

????如今,，投資者擔(dān)憂中國可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長不足,，中國已逐步轉(zhuǎn)向較為寬松的貨幣政策。尤其是中國政府已經(jīng)指示商業(yè)銀行增加放貸,；與美國不同,，這在中國是可行的，因?yàn)榇笮豌y行全都是國有銀行,。

????出口是關(guān)鍵

????但中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭看來正在減弱,，2012年可能是相當(dāng)困難的一年。躲過了其他經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)暴的中國或許難逃歐債危機(jī)的沖擊,。中國2011年全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下滑至9.2%,，雖然這樣的增速對(duì)于美國和歐洲只能做做白日夢(mèng)，但已經(jīng)顯著低于中國2010年的10.4%,。中國上一次出現(xiàn)這么低的增速還要追溯到2009年全球金融危機(jī)時(shí)期,。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們普遍認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速至少達(dá)到8%才能實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸,。但最新的GDP數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，推動(dòng)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要力量——出口,，正在呈現(xiàn)顯著下滑。2011年12月份,，中國的商品和服務(wù)出口額增長了13.4%,，撇開新年假期造成的季節(jié)性偏差，這是2009年11月以來最低的出口增速,。

????For the past three decades, China has seen impressive growth. Even more impressive is the way officials there have engineered a robust economy in recent years.

????While most of the rest of the world was mired in recession in 2008 and 2009, China's economy expanded by more than 9% annually. And to the surprise of many forecasters, officials announced earlier this week that China grew more than expected at the end of last year. GDP rose 8.9% during the fourth quarter, even as Europe's unfolding debt crisis unnerved investors. Admittedly, growth ended 2011 at the slowest pace in 2-1/2 years, but still higher than most expected. And perhaps more importantly, above the 8% minimum that economists believe is needed for sufficient job creation.

????It's clear that China can orchestrate economic growth. But in the coming months – given the fallout transpiring in Europe – it will prove much harder for officials to orchestrate what economists call a "soft landing." That's the daunting task of slowing double-digit GDP growth to mid single-digit growth and reining in inflation, and at the same time cooling its hot real estate market without crashing it.

????What has set China apart over the years is its unique ability to tweak its economy in a way that pleases both the public and private sectors. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, China launched a massive stimulus plan and largely averted a recession. Officials invested billions in infrastructure projects and encouraged banks to lend and fund construction of everything from apartments to soaring office towers. What's more, in 2010, while most developed nations struggled to recover from the global recession, China's economy outpaced Japan to become the world's second-largest economy after the U.S.

????But then the Chinese economy was growing too fast. Prices for homes, in particular, skyrocketed and put home ownership out of reach for millions. And when many investors wondered if the property bubble would burst, officials implemented policies to reel in inflation by hiking interest rates and tightening lending standards.

????Now that investors worry China may not be growing enough, it has gradually shifted to looser monetary policies. Chiefly, the government has instructed banks to increase their lending, which, unlike in the U.S., is possible since all large banks are owned by the state.

????All about exports

????Yet China's resilience appears to be waning and 2012 could be a very tough year. The country that has avoided other economic headwinds may have more trouble escaping the wrath of Europe's debt crisis. China's growth for all of 2011 slipped to 9.2% -- a pace the U.S. and Europe could only dream of. But that's still markedly weaker growth from the 10.4% in 2010 and it's a pace last seen in 2009 during the global financial crisis.

????Economists widely believe that growth of at least 8% is needed for a soft landing. But the latest GDP figure highlights a significant drop in exports, which essentially drives China's economy. In December, Chinese goods and service sold abroad rose 13.4%, marking the slowest export growth since November 2009 aside from seasonal blips due to New Year holidays.