????史蒂夫?喬布斯生前曾說過，預(yù)測未來的最好方法就是親手開創(chuàng)未來,。這種方法可以聰明地歸避掉對未來進(jìn)行預(yù)測的種種固有風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。歷史一向不乏失敗的預(yù)言。許多預(yù)測都徹頭徹尾地錯(cuò)了——它們通常低估了科技的發(fā)展,。1899年美國專利局局長曾聲稱,，任何能夠被發(fā)明的東西都已經(jīng)被發(fā)明出來了。到了20世紀(jì),，許多預(yù)言家們又?jǐn)嘌缘溃浩囍皇且环N奇技淫巧之物,，不堪重用；電視也只會曇花一現(xiàn),；宇宙旅行更是白日做夢,。此外還有一些該做而事先卻沒有做出的預(yù)測，比如阿拉伯之春,、歐債危機(jī),、9/11恐怖襲擊等,。
????喬幫主等少數(shù)精英商界領(lǐng)袖可能的確具有發(fā)明未來的能力，但大多數(shù)企業(yè)高管（或媒體人）只能被動地迎接未來,。當(dāng)然,，這并不是說企業(yè)、大學(xué)和其它機(jī)構(gòu)就不必費(fèi)力地預(yù)測世界10年,、20年或50年后的樣子了,。只有對未來進(jìn)行預(yù)測，才能合理配置資源,，根據(jù)預(yù)期變化開發(fā)產(chǎn)品和服務(wù),。為了編寫《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）的未來指南，我們與一大批研究人員,、預(yù)測人士,、安全專家和分析師進(jìn)行了交流，請他們?yōu)?0年后的世界勾畫一幅素描,。這幅圖畫有時(shí)稍顯黯淡,，因?yàn)樵谌蚍秶鷥?nèi),，網(wǎng)絡(luò)恐怖主義,、資源短缺和政治動蕩看來仍然無法避免。但與此同時(shí),，難以置信的科技進(jìn)步也會改變我們的學(xué)習(xí),、工作和娛樂方式，從而使未來變得更加樂觀,。就連陷入泥淖的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)也將在五,、六年后強(qiáng)勢回歸，這在某種程度上也要?dú)w功于本文中列出的某些科技創(chuàng)新,。FTI Consulting咨詢公司全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和調(diào)查部門總經(jīng)理彼得?諾蘭表示：“我樂觀地相信,，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)會回歸到有利地位?！?/p>
????即將到來的變化也可能會讓一些人感到不適,。比如公司老板們必須適應(yīng)職場的民主化。等級制度可能會瓦解,。有些團(tuán)隊(duì)可能在沒有領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的情況下也能運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)自如,。最好的創(chuàng)意可能來自公司資歷最淺的員工，或者甚至可能完全來自公司外部,?！逗暧^維基經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》（Macrowikinomics）的作者唐?塔普斯科特說：“以前，公司最重要的員工每天都很晚才離開辦公室,，而現(xiàn)在,，他們可能根本都不用來辦公室了,。”
????美國國防高級研究計(jì)劃署（the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency,，簡稱DARPA）已經(jīng)開始使用社交媒體來招攬新人才了,。該機(jī)構(gòu)的主任里賈納?杜根說：“信不信，一個(gè)13歲的孩子也能為癌癥的療法做貢獻(xiàn),？”DARPA運(yùn)作著一個(gè)名叫Foldit的公共電腦游戲,，玩家們會在游戲中對蛋白質(zhì)進(jìn)行折疊，在生物化學(xué)上,，蛋白質(zhì)折疊正是治療癌癥最大的阻礙之一,。如果蛋白質(zhì)折疊不當(dāng)，則會導(dǎo)致瘋牛病,、老年癡呆癥和囊胞性纖維癥等疾病,。這款游戲于2008年5月發(fā)布，至今已經(jīng)有超過23.6萬玩家注冊,，他們的參與有效地幫助科學(xué)家對一種酶的結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了解碼,，那種酶正是導(dǎo)致獼猴感染艾滋病的關(guān)鍵因素。這也是大眾參與科學(xué)研究的第一個(gè)重大成功范例,。杜根稱：“參與者的人數(shù)和多樣性的提高也有利于創(chuàng)新,。” |
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????Steve Jobs once said that the best way to predict the future is to invent it. That's a clever way of dancing around the dangers inherent in the business of long-term forecasting. History is littered with the detritus of crystal-ball watchers. There are the dead-wrong predictions -- usually underestimating technology. The 1899 U.S. patent chief declares that anything that can be invented has been; 20th-century prognosticators follow with confident claims that the automobile is nothing more than a novelty, TV won't last, and space travel is a wild-eyed dream. Then there are the predictions that should have been made -- but weren't: the Arab Spring, the euro crisis, 9/11.
????A small handful of business leaders like Jobs may indeed be able to invent the future. Most executives (and journalists) are condemned to react to it. Of course that doesn't mean companies, universities, and other institutions shouldn't strive to figure out where the world is heading in 10, 20, or even 50 years -- so that they can deftly deploy resources and develop products and services that anticipate change. To produce Fortune's guide to the future, we talked to dozens of researchers, forecasters, security experts, and analysts whose jobs are to peer around corners, and we asked them to paint a picture of the world 10 years out. The portrait sometimes turned dark: cyberterrorism, resource shortages, and political instability around the world are all inevitable. But the experts offered a mostly optimistic view of the future, based on the mind-boggling scientific and technological advancements that will improve the way we learn, work, and play. Even the U.S. economy, which seems stuck in the doldrums, should come back strong in the second half of the coming decade -- partly on the strength of some of the innovations highlighted in this report. "I'm optimistic that the U.S. will come out the other end in a position of strength," says Peter Nolan, managing director in FTI Consulting's global risk and investigations practice.
????The coming changes will be uncomfortable for some. Bosses will need to adjust to a democratization of the workplace. Hierarchies may disappear; some teams may function without leaders. The best ideas may come from the most junior person in the company -- or from outside the organization altogether. "It used to be that your most important asset headed out the elevator every night," says Don Tapscott, co-author of Macrowikinomics. "Now your most important asset may never go up the elevator at all."
????The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, is already using social media to harness new talent. "What if a 13-year-old could contribute to a cure for cancer?" asks Regina Dugan, director of the agency. DARPA runs a public computer game called Foldit, in which competitors try to fold proteins, one of the most difficult biochemistry impediments to curing disease. Misfolded proteins lead to diseases such as mad cow, Alzheimer's, and cystic fibrosis. Since Foldit launched in May 2008, more than 236,000 gamers have registered, their contributions helping decipher the structure of an enzyme responsible for causing AIDS in rhesus monkeys -- the first example of a major breakthrough in crowd-sourced science, Dugan says. "Innovation," she notes, "benefits when the number and diversity of people participating goes up." |
