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????而且,，需求不只是來(lái)自不斷壯大的中產(chǎn)階層,，還來(lái)自于富豪階層。隨著中國(guó)收緊購(gòu)房貸款政策,，很多投資者已轉(zhuǎn)向國(guó)外,。雷小山指出，由于中國(guó)投資者大批買入加拿大,、美國(guó)加州等地住宅,，世界其他一些地區(qū)也有房地產(chǎn)泡沫形成。

????塔夫斯大學(xué)（Tufts University）下屬全球商學(xué)院（Institute for Business in the Global Context）的常務(wù)主任巴思卡?查克勒佛提稱,，即使中國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)大跌20%,，也不太可能引發(fā)災(zāi)難，畢竟過(guò)去房?jī)r(jià)漲得太快了,。房?jī)r(jià)下跌將為那些一年前,、甚至幾個(gè)月前還買不起房的人們提供了買入的機(jī)會(huì)（想想中國(guó)人數(shù)多達(dá)約3億的中產(chǎn)階層）。

????“從根本上講,，這是一個(gè)很有深度的市場(chǎng),，”查克勒佛提近日在紐約出席彭博中國(guó)研討會(huì)Bloomberg Link China并在中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)小組討論上發(fā)言后表示,。

中國(guó)政府不會(huì)讓樓市崩盤

????中國(guó)中央政府向來(lái)善于對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行適時(shí)的微調(diào)。政府察覺(jué)到房?jī)r(jià)上漲過(guò)快后已經(jīng)收緊了貸款政策,。因此,，我們看到的房?jī)r(jià)下跌正是政府所樂(lè)于見(jiàn)到的，是中國(guó)政府樓市調(diào)控方案的一部分,，目的是為樓市降溫,，讓更多中國(guó)人買得起房。

????但摩根大通指出,，問(wèn)題是隨著樓市投資放緩,，中國(guó)官員的樓市調(diào)控政策還會(huì)持續(xù)多久？該行預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)一年半,，中國(guó)全國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)可能下跌5%至10%,；過(guò)去房?jī)r(jià)上漲過(guò)快的地區(qū)（該行指出，2007-2010年間,，中國(guó)35個(gè)大城市的平均房?jī)r(jià)漲了82%）,，預(yù)計(jì)房?jī)r(jià)下跌幅度將高達(dá)20%。

????“這可能會(huì)減緩中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速,，但不會(huì)導(dǎo)致硬著陸,，”摩根大通分析師們表示。

????摩根大通去年11月的報(bào)告指出,，如果要從全局來(lái)看中國(guó)的房?jī)r(jià)泡沫問(wèn)題,，需要指出的是，中國(guó)主要城市的房?jī)r(jià)增速顯著快于國(guó)內(nèi)其他地區(qū),，這一點(diǎn)很重要,。而且，大城市在全國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)所占的份額相對(duì)較小,。舉例來(lái)說(shuō),，2011年大部分時(shí)候，北京,、上海和廣東的房地產(chǎn)投資總額只占到全國(guó)的16%,，房地產(chǎn)銷售額占比達(dá)到20%，銷售面積占比也只有10%,。

????因此,，在地區(qū)房?jī)r(jià)引發(fā)全國(guó)樓市崩盤之前，中國(guó)政府有足夠的時(shí)間來(lái)調(diào)整政策,。

????The demand, however, isn't just coming from the growing middle class but also the very rich. With tighter lending rules placed on Chinese buyers at home, many investors have gone abroad. Rein points to the formation of property bubbles in other parts of the world, as Chinese investors buy up homes in places such as Canada and California.

????Even if home prices fall by 20% in China, it's unlikely that would spell disaster given that prices had surged so rapidly, says Bhaskar Chakravorti, executive director of Tufts University's Institute for Business in the Global Context. Lower prices would offer an opening to those who couldn't afford to buy a year or a few months ago (think about the 300 million middle class Chinese).

????"Fundamentally, it's a deep market," says Chakravorti, after speaking recently on a panel about China's property market at the Bloomberg Link China conference in New York City.

The government won't let prices crash

????China's central government has been known to tweak its economy as it goes. When officials saw property prices rising too rapidly for its tastes, it tightened lending rules. So the declines we have seen are welcome and are part of the government's plans to cool down its hot real estate market, making it more affordable for more Chinese to buy property.

????The tricky part is in knowing how long officials adjust housing policies as the real estate market slows, according to JP Morgan. The bank adds that over the next year and a half, prices could fall 5% to 10% at the national level. At the regional level, where prices have risen much more rapidly ((it notes prices surged an average of 82% between 2007 to 2010 in 35 major Chinese cities), prices are expected to fall by 20%.

????"This will likely slow the pace of economic growth but not lead to a hard landing," say JP Morgan's analysts.

????To put China's property bubble in context, it's important to note that prices in major cities have risen much faster than the rest of the country, according to JP Morgan's November report. And major cities make up a relatively small portion of the national housing market. For instance, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong's markets combined account for 16% of total real estate investment, 20% of the buildings sold (in value), and 10% of the floor space sold for the majority of 2011.

????So before home prices at the regional level trigger a national market crash, the Chinese government should have enough time to change its game.