????與此同時，堅挺的日元導(dǎo)致進口商品價格比國產(chǎn)商品更便宜,，忠誠的日本消費者也開始有所動搖,，進一步加劇了日本的貿(mào)易逆差。12月份,，日本實際進口額增長了4.1%,，而此前的預(yù)期是下降1.4%，實際遠超預(yù)期,。隨著日元升值,，日本消費者開始越來越習(xí)慣于購買進口商品，這股趨勢預(yù)計將得到延續(xù),。
????堅挺的日元以及持續(xù)的低利率對忠誠的日本投資者也產(chǎn)生了影響。雖然目前大部分日本資產(chǎn)仍然放在利息極低的銀行賬戶和日本國債中,，過去兩年已有一部分資產(chǎn)通過共同基金投資收益率較高的國際證券,。與此同時，外國投資者持有日本債券的比例也在上升,，高盛（Goldman Sachs）的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，這個數(shù)字已從去年的5%升至8%左右。外國投資者持有的短期債券比例過去十年增長了一倍,，現(xiàn)已逼近20%,。
????十年來日本政府一直在努力降低日元匯率,，但始終沒有進展。它不停地執(zhí)行了多輪量化寬松政策,，即日本央行用新印的日元向銀行回購日本國債,，增加貨幣供應(yīng)量。去年日本央行實施了三輪量化寬松,，但日元依然持續(xù)升值,。周二，日本央行出人意料地宣布擴大量化寬松計劃,，再向銀行體系注入1,300億美元,。日元匯率小幅下降，但預(yù)計新增的貨幣供應(yīng)不會對日元匯率產(chǎn)生持續(xù)的影響,。
????隨著日本傳統(tǒng)的債務(wù)保障體系出現(xiàn)裂縫,，日元升值，華爾街的“債券保安團”有望復(fù)制去年在歐洲的戰(zhàn)績,。日本利率和日本CDS之間的利差意味著外國投資者越來越擔(dān)心日本政府的信用度,。這種擔(dān)心是可以理解的，畢竟日本政府今年的稅收收入將僅及預(yù)算的40%,。
????雖然一切跡象都很清楚,，日本的債務(wù)保障體系出了問題，但日本國債收益率仍低于1%,，讓日本政府還是能以很低的成本繼續(xù)借錢,。但去年日本債券和CDS的劇烈波動意味著已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)軟肋，即便是一次并不嚴重的信用事件也可能導(dǎo)致日本國內(nèi)外債券投資者奪路而走,，一夜間將日本主權(quán)債券的收益率推至極高水平——去年意大利的情況就是如此,。
????日本要躲過這場債務(wù)之災(zāi)絕非易事。它可以試著將貨幣供應(yīng)總量增加一倍或兩倍,，借助通脹擺脫危機,，但這同時也會導(dǎo)致日本的儲蓄大幅縮水。日本政府也可以實施一些嚴厲的緊縮措施,，減少支出,，或者調(diào)高稅負，增加政府收入,，但這兩種做法都會對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生嚴重后果,。目前日本政府提議的、最激進的舉措是到2014年,，將日本的銷售稅提高至8%,，第二年再升至10%，但這些對于日本堆積如山的債務(wù)來說可能只是杯水車薪。
????日本最終將于何時不堪債務(wù)重負,，目前仍不得而知,。但未來幾年，日本的老齡化人口將大批退休,，這些人將賣出所有的債券,，停止買入，屆時日本政府將再也無法繼續(xù)依靠國民融資,。隨著日本債務(wù)保障體系受損,，這一天的到來可能會比任何人預(yù)想的都要快。 |
|
|
????Meanwhile, the loyal Japanese consumer has started to stray a bit as the strong yen has made foreign goods look relatively cheap compared to domestic products, further exacerbating the nation's trade deficit. Real imports into Japan in December exceeded expectations of a 1.4% contraction to a 4.1% increase. This trend is expected to continue as the yen strengthens and Japanese consumers become more comfortable buying foreign goods.
????The strong yen and prolonged weak interest rates are also affecting the loyal Japanese investor. While the vast majority of Japanese assets still remain parked at the bank and in government bonds yielding little interest, there has been a shift in the past two years to invest in higher-yielding international securities offered through mutual funds. At the same time, foreign ownership of Japanese debt is on the rise, going from 5% last year to around 8%, according to Goldman Sachs. The share of short-term debt held by foreigners has now doubled in the last decade to just below 20%.
????The Japanese government has tried to weaken the yen for a decade to no avail. It has incessantly engaged in multiple rounds of quantitative easing, which is when the central bank buys back its bonds from the banks with freshly printed cash, thus inflating the money supply. The BOJ engaged in three rounds of QE last year, but the yen kept strengthening. On Tuesday, the BOJ surprised the markets and announced an expansion of its QE program, injecting an additional $130 billion into the banking system. The yen weakened a bit, but the additional QE isn't expected to have a lasting effect on its value.
????With Japan's traditional debt defenses damaged and the yen increasing in value, the stage is set for the Wall Street bond vigilantes to make their mark as they did in Europe last year. The difference in yields between Japanese interest rates and Japanese CDS implies that foreigners are growing concerned as to the creditworthiness of the Japanese government. That's understandable given that the government will bring in only 40% of what it needs this year in taxes to cover its budget.
????Despite all the clear signs of trouble and the damage to its debt defenses, Japanese sovereign debt is still trading below 1%, making it easy for the government to continue borrowing. But the volatile trading in Japanese bonds and CDS in the last year implies a vulnerability where even a mild credit event could trigger a run on the sovereign by both foreign and domestic bondholders, sending government borrowing rates skyrocketing overnight - just as it did in Italy last year.
????There seems to be no easy way for Japan to escape this debt prison. It could try to inflate its way out of the mess by doubling or tripling the entire money supply, but that would effectively decimate the nation's savings. The government could implement some draconian austerity measures to rein in spending or hike up taxes to increase revenue, but both moves would have severe consequences on economic growth. The boldest move the government is proposing is to hike the nation's sales tax to 8% by 2014, which would increase to 10% in the following year, but that isn't enough to make a dent in the debt pile.
????There is no way to know when Japan will finally succumb to its debts. Japan's aging population will be retiring in droves over the next few years, meaning that they will stop buying and start liquidating their bonds, eliminating the government's ability to fund itself. With Japan's debt defenses compromised, that day of reckoning could be coming up much sooner than anyone can imagine.
. |
