????十年前，施正榮博士前創(chuàng)辦尚德電力（Suntech）時,，他做夢也沒想過自己的太陽能電池板公司這么迅速就能達到現(xiàn)在這樣的高度,。尚德電力位于中國無錫，制造的高質低價太陽能電池板遠銷全球80個國家,。作為行業(yè)龍頭,，尚德在2011年的銷售額大約為31億美元，同比增長了7%,。不過,，尚德遇到的阻礙也不少。激烈的成本削減已經對所有太陽能股造成了損害,，尚德也無法幸免,。此外，美國商會（The US Chamber of Commerce）最近指稱,，中國的太陽能公司存在傾銷行為。即便如此,，施正榮博士仍看好太陽能產業(yè)的發(fā)展前景,，尤其是在中國國內市場不斷升溫的情況下。這次瑞典達沃斯的世界經濟論壇（WEF）期間,，他接受了《財富》雜志（Fortune）布萊恩?杜梅因的采訪,，跟我們分享了他的看法。
問：太陽能電池板的價格在下跌,，而產業(yè)的增速卻在放緩,，是什么原因造成了這種情況？
????答：2001年太陽能發(fā)電的價格大約是6美元/瓦,，現(xiàn)在是1美元/瓦,，太陽能電池板價格每年的跌幅將降到5%至10%?？梢园阉胂蟪梢粔K海綿,，大量水分從供應鏈中被擠了出去,。全球光伏產業(yè)去年增長了30%，今年的增幅卻會回落到到20%左右,。在歐元區(qū)深陷泥潭的情況下,，作為全球最大的太陽能市場之一，甚至連德國地區(qū)的銷售也在放緩,。
價格下跌已經對企業(yè)利潤率造成損害了嗎,？
????不錯。一年前,，太陽能產業(yè)坐享30%的利潤率,，而現(xiàn)在已經下滑到13%。我們應該能夠把這個數(shù)字保持在10%,，這樣在大規(guī)模生產的情況下,，它依然是一門好生意。
美國方面指責中國太陽能廠商利用政府補貼在美國市場傾銷廉價的太陽能電池板,。
????我認為,，說中國公司擠垮了美國同行，這種說法不公正,，中國也有很多太陽能公司倒閉,。至于補貼，美國政府曾在Solyndra公司倒閉前向其發(fā)放了一筆高達5.28億美元的貸款,，而我們從未得到過那么好的待遇,，從來沒有這種好事。如果存在關稅的話,，太陽能產品的價格就會上漲,，許多項目就無法繼續(xù)，也無法創(chuàng)造出新的就業(yè)機會,。
現(xiàn)在的機遇在哪里,？
????福島災難發(fā)生后，日本關閉了大部分的核反應堆,，表示會轉向可再生能源,。到目前為止，中國生產的太陽能電池板主要用于出口,，但現(xiàn)在也在向國內市場轉移,。中國市場真的在蓬勃發(fā)展，最終會推動全球市場再次實現(xiàn)高速增長,。今年,，中國預計將安裝4至5千兆瓦的太陽能電池板（發(fā)電量大致跟一座核電廠相當），足足是短短兩年前的10倍,。
太陽能產業(yè)將能達到怎樣的規(guī)模,？
????如今,，太陽能在全球能源市場的份額大約只占1%。我們的價格在很多市場上已經開始具有競爭優(yōu)勢,。我認為,，太陽能產業(yè)在未來5年內將擺脫對政府補貼的依賴，而這將有助于加快太陽能產業(yè)的發(fā)展,。到2050年,，25%的電力將來自于太陽能。
????譯者：王燦均 |
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????When he founded Suntech 10 years ago, Dr. Zhengrong Shi never dreamed his solar panel company would rise so far so fast. Suntech (STP), based in Wuxi, China, builds high-quality, inexpensive solar panels that have been installed in 80 countries. The company, the biggest in the industry, estimates sales for 2011 of roughly $3.1 billion, up 7% from the year before. But obstacles abound. Fierce cost cutting has hurt all solar stocks, Suntech included. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has recently accused Chinese solar companies of dumping. Even so, Dr. Shi sees a healthy solar industry ahead, especially as the domestic market in China heats up. He shared his views with Fortune's Brian Dumaine at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Q: Solar panel prices are dropping, yet growth is slowing. What's going on?
????A: In 2001 solar power was about $6 a watt; now it is $1. The drop in solar panel prices will slow to 5% to 10% a year. You can imagine it's like a sponge. A lot of water has been squeezed out of the supply chain. The global photovoltaics industry grew 30% last year and will slow to about 20% this year. With the troubles in the eurozone, sales in Germany, one of the biggest markets, are slowing.
This price drop has hurt margins?
????Yes. A year ago the industry enjoyed 30% margins, and that's down to 13%. We should be able to maintain 10% margins, and with the big volumes we're producing, it will be a good business.
The U.S. has accused Chinese solar manufacturers of using government subsidies to dump cheap panels on the American market.
????I think it's unfair to say that Chinese companies are squeezing out American companies. China has so many solar companies that are failing too. As for subsidies, we never got anywhere close to the $528 million loan the U.S. government gave to Solyndra before it went out of business. Nothing like that. If there's a tariff, the price of solar goes up and many projects become unaffordable and new jobs aren't created.
Where are the opportunities now?
????After the Fukushima disaster, Japan shut down most of its reactors and said it would move to renewables. Until now, China has mostly exported solar panels but is turning toward domestic consumption. The market is really taking off and will eventually make the whole global market grow faster again. This year China will install an estimated four to five gigawatts [the rough equivalent of a nuclear power plant]. That's a 10-fold increase from just two years ago.
How big can solar get?
????Today it's only about 1% of the global energy market. In many markets we already are price competitive. I think in five years' time solar won't need subsidies and that will help accelerate growth. By 2050, 25% of our electricity will come from solar. |
