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????十年前,，施正榮博士前創(chuàng)辦尚德電力（Suntech）時(shí),，他做夢(mèng)也沒想過自己的太陽(yáng)能電池板公司這么迅速就能達(dá)到現(xiàn)在這樣的高度。尚德電力位于中國(guó)無錫,，制造的高質(zhì)低價(jià)太陽(yáng)能電池板遠(yuǎn)銷全球80個(gè)國(guó)家,。作為行業(yè)龍頭,，尚德在2011年的銷售額大約為31億美元，同比增長(zhǎng)了7%,。不過,，尚德遇到的阻礙也不少。激烈的成本削減已經(jīng)對(duì)所有太陽(yáng)能股造成了損害,，尚德也無法幸免,。此外,，美國(guó)商會(huì)（The US Chamber of Commerce）最近指稱,，中國(guó)的太陽(yáng)能公司存在傾銷行為。即便如此,，施正榮博士仍看好太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展前景,，尤其是在中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)不斷升溫的情況下。這次瑞典達(dá)沃斯的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇（WEF）期間,，他接受了《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）布萊恩?杜梅因的采訪,，跟我們分享了他的看法。

問：太陽(yáng)能電池板的價(jià)格在下跌,，而產(chǎn)業(yè)的增速卻在放緩,，是什么原因造成了這種情況？

????答：2001年太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電的價(jià)格大約是6美元/瓦,，現(xiàn)在是1美元/瓦,，太陽(yáng)能電池板價(jià)格每年的跌幅將降到5%至10%?？梢园阉胂蟪梢粔K海綿,，大量水分從供應(yīng)鏈中被擠了出去。全球光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)去年增長(zhǎng)了30%,，今年的增幅卻會(huì)回落到到20%左右,。在歐元區(qū)深陷泥潭的情況下，作為全球最大的太陽(yáng)能市場(chǎng)之一,，甚至連德國(guó)地區(qū)的銷售也在放緩,。

價(jià)格下跌已經(jīng)對(duì)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)率造成損害了嗎？

????不錯(cuò),。一年前,，太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)坐享30%的利潤(rùn)率，而現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)下滑到13%,。我們應(yīng)該能夠把這個(gè)數(shù)字保持在10%,，這樣在大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)的情況下，它依然是一門好生意,。

美國(guó)方面指責(zé)中國(guó)太陽(yáng)能廠商利用政府補(bǔ)貼在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)傾銷廉價(jià)的太陽(yáng)能電池板,。

????我認(rèn)為,，說中國(guó)公司擠垮了美國(guó)同行，這種說法不公正,，中國(guó)也有很多太陽(yáng)能公司倒閉,。至于補(bǔ)貼，美國(guó)政府曾在Solyndra公司倒閉前向其發(fā)放了一筆高達(dá)5.28億美元的貸款,，而我們從未得到過那么好的待遇,，從來沒有這種好事。如果存在關(guān)稅的話,，太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格就會(huì)上漲,，許多項(xiàng)目就無法繼續(xù)，也無法創(chuàng)造出新的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),。

現(xiàn)在的機(jī)遇在哪里,？

????福島災(zāi)難發(fā)生后，日本關(guān)閉了大部分的核反應(yīng)堆,，表示會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源,。到目前為止，中國(guó)生產(chǎn)的太陽(yáng)能電池板主要用于出口,，但現(xiàn)在也在向國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)移,。中國(guó)市場(chǎng)真的在蓬勃發(fā)展，最終會(huì)推動(dòng)全球市場(chǎng)再次實(shí)現(xiàn)高速增長(zhǎng),。今年,，中國(guó)預(yù)計(jì)將安裝4至5千兆瓦的太陽(yáng)能電池板（發(fā)電量大致跟一座核電廠相當(dāng)），足足是短短兩年前的10倍,。

太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)將能達(dá)到怎樣的規(guī)模,？

????如今，太陽(yáng)能在全球能源市場(chǎng)的份額大約只占1%,。我們的價(jià)格在很多市場(chǎng)上已經(jīng)開始具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì),。我認(rèn)為，太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)在未來5年內(nèi)將擺脫對(duì)政府補(bǔ)貼的依賴,，而這將有助于加快太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,。到2050年，25%的電力將來自于太陽(yáng)能,。

????譯者：王燦均

????When he founded Suntech 10 years ago, Dr. Zhengrong Shi never dreamed his solar panel company would rise so far so fast. Suntech (STP), based in Wuxi, China, builds high-quality, inexpensive solar panels that have been installed in 80 countries. The company, the biggest in the industry, estimates sales for 2011 of roughly $3.1 billion, up 7% from the year before. But obstacles abound. Fierce cost cutting has hurt all solar stocks, Suntech included. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has recently accused Chinese solar companies of dumping. Even so, Dr. Shi sees a healthy solar industry ahead, especially as the domestic market in China heats up. He shared his views with Fortune's Brian Dumaine at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Q: Solar panel prices are dropping, yet growth is slowing. What's going on?

????A: In 2001 solar power was about $6 a watt; now it is $1. The drop in solar panel prices will slow to 5% to 10% a year. You can imagine it's like a sponge. A lot of water has been squeezed out of the supply chain. The global photovoltaics industry grew 30% last year and will slow to about 20% this year. With the troubles in the eurozone, sales in Germany, one of the biggest markets, are slowing.

This price drop has hurt margins?

????Yes. A year ago the industry enjoyed 30% margins, and that's down to 13%. We should be able to maintain 10% margins, and with the big volumes we're producing, it will be a good business.

The U.S. has accused Chinese solar manufacturers of using government subsidies to dump cheap panels on the American market.

????I think it's unfair to say that Chinese companies are squeezing out American companies. China has so many solar companies that are failing too. As for subsidies, we never got anywhere close to the $528 million loan the U.S. government gave to Solyndra before it went out of business. Nothing like that. If there's a tariff, the price of solar goes up and many projects become unaffordable and new jobs aren't created.

Where are the opportunities now?

????After the Fukushima disaster, Japan shut down most of its reactors and said it would move to renewables. Until now, China has mostly exported solar panels but is turning toward domestic consumption. The market is really taking off and will eventually make the whole global market grow faster again. This year China will install an estimated four to five gigawatts [the rough equivalent of a nuclear power plant]. That's a 10-fold increase from just two years ago.

How big can solar get?

????Today it's only about 1% of the global energy market. In many markets we already are price competitive. I think in five years' time solar won't need subsidies and that will help accelerate growth. By 2050, 25% of our electricity will come from solar.