????在象棋對弈中,，所謂“終盤”就是棋局進(jìn)入尾聲，棋盤上的棋子數(shù)量已相對較少之,。很多象棋分析人士對于究竟何時開始才算進(jìn)入終盤意見并不統(tǒng)一,，但他們都認(rèn)同一點，進(jìn)入終盤后,，對弈策略與中局時大相徑庭,。事實上，全球頂尖的象棋棋手總是能在終盤時拿出優(yōu)異的表現(xiàn),，并采用前后一貫的策略,。
????本周二股市的表現(xiàn)便讓一些投資者懷疑全球經(jīng)濟增長是否已經(jīng)、或者即將進(jìn)入終盤階段,。美國股市的強勢反彈并不令人意外,，明顯帶有近期全球股市信心兩極搖擺的特征。前一天,，壞消息占上風(fēng),，后一天，好消息又主導(dǎo)全局,。全球經(jīng)濟增速放緩已進(jìn)入終盤,，然后又發(fā)現(xiàn)其實還沒有。
????與此同時,，周二，西班牙債務(wù)問題顯現(xiàn)更多終盤跡象,。西班牙今年仍然會是歐債危機的承壓點,。西班牙宣布，自去年12月份起,，國內(nèi)銀行不良貸款加速增加,，現(xiàn)在總計已經(jīng)達(dá)到1,438.2億歐元,，為18年來的高點。房地產(chǎn)價格繼續(xù)向長期均值靠攏可能會帶來一個巨大的風(fēng)險,即不良貸款很可能還會繼續(xù)大幅加速,。
????西班牙的債務(wù)問題每況愈下,，關(guān)鍵是因為德國正式聲稱，西班牙大到救不了,。意大利也是如此,。救不了意大利，也救不了西班牙,，這種局面必定是越來越讓人揪心的歐債危機的終局,。但公平地說，西班牙10年期債券的收益率牢牢保持在6%之下,，目前為5.78%,，這是件好事，但西班牙IBEX指數(shù)周三上午跌了3.2%,。周四還會進(jìn)行更長期西班牙債券的拍賣,，如同其他任何人為控制的市場一樣，這些債券的拍賣最終依然會取得成功,。
????本周歐洲的政壇大事是周末法國大選將啟動第一輪投票,。由于主要候選人需要取得50%的選票才能勝出，鑒于眼下存在多個主要候選人同時競爭,，可能還會有第二輪投票,。當(dāng)前，法國調(diào)查機構(gòu)CSA的民調(diào)顯示,，預(yù)計在第一輪投票中奧朗德將以29%比24%領(lǐng)先薩科齊,，比幾天前的數(shù)字還有一定提高；預(yù)計在第二輪投票中,，奧朗德將以58%對42%的壓倒性優(yōu)勢取勝,。
????法國大選非常重要，因為：其一,，奧朗德是社會黨,，其二，奧朗德是社會主義者,，其三,，奧朗德已經(jīng)聲明，如果獲選,，他將重新協(xié)商歐盟預(yù)算協(xié)議,，不會接受強制要求成員國壓縮開支的做法。歐元區(qū)這個偉大的貨幣聯(lián)盟即將面臨更多的政治挑戰(zhàn)。
????而在美國,，當(dāng)前股市的主題是財報季,。銀行業(yè)分析人士周二寫到金融業(yè)時稱：
????“大約三分之一的金融公司已經(jīng)發(fā)布了業(yè)績報告。8家大中型公司中有7家凈利潤超預(yù)期,。營收趨勢進(jìn)一步分化,，超過三分之一的公司超出預(yù)期，三分之一與預(yù)期一致,，不到三分之一的公司未能達(dá)到預(yù)期,。但由于債務(wù)價值調(diào)整（Debt Value Adjustment），這些數(shù)據(jù)存在一定的誤導(dǎo)性,。根據(jù)債務(wù)價值調(diào)整,，大銀行的營收受到一項會計規(guī)則的不利影響，這項規(guī)則要求它們在信用違約掉期（CDS）下跌時確認(rèn)負(fù)營收,。第一季度CDS顯著下降,，沖擊所有對資本市場敏感的大公司，即：花旗（Citi）,、摩根大通（JP Morgan）,、美國銀行（Bank of America）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）和摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）,。” |
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????In chess, the end game is the point at which there are a relatively limited number of pieces on the board. Many chess analysts disagree as to when exactly the end game begins, but they all agree that when the end game begins, strategy is much different than the middle game. In fact, over time the world's best chess players have always excelled at the end game and utilized a consistent strategy.
????Yesterday was one of those stock market days that certainly made a few investors wonder whether the global economic growth end game is actually here yet, or close. The snap back in U.S. equities didn't necessarily surprise us but obviously characterized the almost bi-polar sentiment that currently exists in global equities. One day bad news matters, the next day good news matters more. The global economic growth slowing end game is here, then it isn't.
????Meanwhile in Spain over night we did get more evidence of the debt end game. The nation that will continue to be the pressure point in European sovereign debt issues this year, reported that non-performing bank loans accelerated from December and now total €143.82B, which is an 18-year high. The big risk is that this level of non-performing loans accelerates dramatically as property prices continue to revert to the mean.
????The key issue with Spain accelerating to the downside from a debt perspective is that Germany is basically on record saying that Spain is too big to save. And so is Italy. Not being able to save either Italy or Spain is certainly a European sovereign debt end game that is increasingly concerning. To be fair, though, Spanish 10-year yields are now solidly below the 6% line at 5.78%, which is a positive, but the IBEX this morning is down -3.2%. Tomorrow we get the longer term Spanish bond auctions and they, too, will likely be as successful as any artificially controlled market.
????The major political catalyst this week in Europe is the French elections, with the first round this weekend. Since a major candidate has to garner 50% to win, it is likely there is a second round given there are major candidates competing. Currently, the polls from CSA have Hollande leading Sarkozy 29% to 24% in Round 1. This is an improvement from being tied a few days ago. The polls then show Hollande mercy-crushing Sarkozy in Round 2, by a margin of 58% to 42%.
????The French election is critical because: A) Hollande is a Socialist, B) Hollande is a Socialist, and C) Hollande has stated that if elected he will renegotiate the EU budget compact and that he will not accept austerity as rule for countries. Things are about to get a lot more challenging politically in the great monetary union that is the Eurozone.
????In the U.S. we are fully in the midst of earnings season. Our banking analyst wrote this yesterday as it related to the financial sector:
????"Roughly one third of financial companies have reported earnings so far. Seven of the eight large- or mid-cap companies have beaten estimates on the bottom line. Revenue trends have been more mixed, with just over 1/3 beating estimates, 1/3 in-line and just under 1/3 missing. However, this is a bit misleading because of Debt Value Adjustment. With DVA, the big banks' revenue lines are adversely affected by an accounting convention that requires them to recognize negative revenues when their credit default swaps tighten. First quarter saw sizeable CDS tightening, so the headwind was significant for all the large-cap capital markets sensitive names: C, JPM, BAC, GS, MS." |
