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????華爾街分析師對蘋果（Apple）iPhone上季度銷量的預(yù)測與實際銷量相差在200萬部以內(nèi)（實際銷量是3,510萬部）的人我一只手就能數(shù)得過來。

????由于在圣誕節(jié)后,，威瑞森（Verizon）與美國電話電報公司（AT&T）的iPhone激活量會出現(xiàn)“可預(yù)見的”下降,，所以絕大部分分析師的注意力都放在了這個問題上，以至于他們都漏掉了iPhone 4S在中國發(fā)售這一事件的重大意義,。中國是世界最大的手機市場,，iPhone 4S恰到好處地挑在農(nóng)歷新年上市，而這一時段正是中國最為狂熱的送禮季,。

????（參見賀拉斯?德迪歐在其個人博客Asymco上的文章,，他半開玩笑地解釋說：“因為繞太陽公轉(zhuǎn)，所以地球的軸心線與其運行軌道是傾斜的,?！保ǖ碌蠚W意在指出全球很多國家的重大節(jié)日都在12月到1月間，不僅僅是美國圣誕節(jié),?！g注）

????這一點也許能解釋，為什么至少有兩位分析師在周一的報告中都強調(diào)了中國對于蘋果未來iPhone銷量的重要性,。

????上文的圖表是咨詢公司Auriga的凱文?德發(fā)布的,，他此前預(yù)測2012年第二財季,，iPhone銷量為2,800萬部,，結(jié)果比實際數(shù)字少了大約700萬。他現(xiàn)在預(yù)測：中國三大運營商每月新增1,000到1,200萬3G用戶,；其中絕大部分是iPhone潛在用戶,。

????另一位分析師也不甘示弱，德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的克里斯?維特莫爾將其報告定名為《iPhone在中國剛剛起步》,。維特莫爾在上財季的預(yù)測最不靠譜,，當(dāng)時他預(yù)測的數(shù)字僅為2,600萬部。

????維特莫爾寫道：“我們認(rèn)為,，在2012年第一季度,，蘋果在中國聯(lián)通（China Unicom）和中國電信（China Telecom）的混合3G市場中占據(jù)了不到15%的份額。我們預(yù)計,，在接下來數(shù)年,，受益于兩大運營商3G用戶的強勁增長，蘋果份額將獲得穩(wěn)步提升,。如果蘋果在2013年底能在3G市場中實現(xiàn)20-25%的滲透率,，那么我們預(yù)計iPhone在中國的銷量或?qū)⑦_(dá)到2,500萬（2012年）和3,500萬（2013年）。如果蘋果能和中國移動（China Mobile）展開合作,，那么iPhone銷量必將進(jìn)一步增長,?！?/p>

????的確如此。

????最新消息：維特莫爾在周一下午的一封電子郵件中表示,，盡管自己預(yù)測蘋果第二財季將售出2,600萬部iPhone，但他在4月23日的一份報告中包含了下面這句話：

????“我們認(rèn)為自己對iPhone 2,600萬部的預(yù)測過于保守,，真實銷量應(yīng)在3,300萬到3,400萬之間,?！?/p>

????越來越多的蘋果分析師正在采用這一做法,。他們發(fā)布一個預(yù)測銷量，然后表示該數(shù)字可能過低,，以此規(guī)風(fēng)險,。不過，對我們而言,，我們只能采用公開發(fā)布的數(shù)字,，除非它們被正式修訂。

????譯者：項航

????I can count on one hand the number of Wall Street analysts whose estimates of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales last quarter came within 2 million units of the correct answer (35.1 million).

????Most of them were so distracted by the predictable fall-off in Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) activations after Christmas that they missed the significance of the launch of the iPhone 4S in China just in time for Chinese New Year -- the biggest holiday gift-buying season in the world's biggest mobile phone market.

????(See Asymco's Horace Dediu's only slightly tongue-in-cheek primer on how Earth's axis is tilted relative to the orbital plane it follows around the Sun.)

????This may explain why at least two analysts issued notes Monday highlighting the importance of China to Apple's future iPhone sales.

????The chart above was posted by Auriga's Kevin Dede, whose estimate of Q2 iPhone sales was 28 million units, roughly 7 million short. He now estimates that between them, China's three largest carriers are adding 10 to 12 million new 3G subscribers per month, most of them potential iPhone customers.

????Not to be outdone, Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore, whose iPhone estimate of 26 million units was the worst we saw last quarter, issued a note entitled "iPhone is just getting started in China."

????"In 1Q," he writes, "we estimate Apple has captured less than 15% share of China Unicom and China Telecom's combined 3G subscriber base. Over the next few years, we expect Apple to benefit from strong 3G sub growth at these two partners while continuing its path of share gains. If Apple reaches 20-25% penetration of this subscriber base by the end of 2013, we estimate iPhone unit sales in China would approach ~25M units in 2012 and ~35M units in 2013. Any benefit from a future partnership with China Mobile would be additive to these estimates."

????Indeed.

????UPDATE: In an e-mail sent Monday afternoon, Whitmore notes that although his Q2 model called for Apple to sell 26 million iPhones, he issued a note on April 23 that contained this sentence:

????"We believe our expectation of 26.0M iPhones will prove too conservative and we believe units will be in the 33-34M range."

????This is an increasingly common practice among Apple analysts. They hedge a published unit sales estimate by suggesting that it may be too low. For our purposes, however, we have to stick with the published estimate until it is formally revised.