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????有時(shí)，備選方案也毫不遜色,。今夏早些時(shí)候,，谷歌公司（Google）收購北電網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司（Nortel Networks）專利組合的計(jì)劃落空。彼時(shí),，有誰能預(yù)料到,，它今天會(huì)斥資125億美元現(xiàn)金收購摩托羅拉移動(dòng)公司（Motorola Mobility）？

????確定無疑的是,，此舉不僅會(huì)改變谷歌的業(yè)務(wù),，更將改變激戰(zhàn)正酣的硅谷專利之爭(zhēng)的戰(zhàn)局。有傳聞?wù)f,，由于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手微軟公司（Microsoft）亦垂涎于摩托羅拉（Motorola）專利庫，谷歌于是破釜沉舟,，先下手為強(qiáng),，此舉同時(shí)堪稱其短暫歷史上最大的收購交易。（點(diǎn)擊閱讀《谷歌10大收購案大起底》）,。但是,，每樁交易都有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，當(dāng)交易有可能導(dǎo)致公司員工總數(shù)增加60%時(shí),，尤其如此,。即便此項(xiàng)收購最終能夠成功，其中也暗藏著種種危機(jī),。

????以下五大問題有可能給谷歌高層帶來巨大麻煩：

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一：安卓遇險(xiǎn)

????對(duì)于正在使用安卓移動(dòng)操作系統(tǒng)的谷歌合作伙伴而言,，此樁交易到底意味著什么？谷歌一直馬不停蹄地忙著從索愛（Sony-Ericsson）,、宏達(dá)電（HTC）,、以及三星（Samsung）等諸合作伙伴處收集有關(guān)此次收購的積極評(píng)論。但是,，如果此項(xiàng)交易當(dāng)真威脅到安卓開放的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的話,，它就有可能妨礙后者的成長(zhǎng)。無論結(jié)局如何,，部分分析人士預(yù)計(jì),，由于手機(jī)廠商會(huì)擔(dān)心谷歌可能給予摩托羅拉優(yōu)惠待遇而求自保，微軟可能會(huì)漁翁得利,，其Windows Phone OS將贏得更多客戶,。（谷歌表示摩托羅拉不會(huì)受到特別照顧。）

????《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）采訪到的多數(shù)分析師都把這個(gè)問題列為最大的憂慮,。但是,，瑞銀證券（UBS）的布萊恩?皮茲表示,，谷歌迄今的表現(xiàn)可謂無可挑剔?！肮雀鑿奈幢硎疽⒁粋€(gè)專有的生態(tài)系統(tǒng),。”皮茲表示：“如果他們言行不一的話,，這句話就毫無意義可言,。”

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之二：整合之痛

????自谷歌宣布此項(xiàng)交易以來,，人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)始終集中在摩托羅拉1.7萬個(gè)現(xiàn)有專利和7,500個(gè)待審批專利上,。有誰想過摩托羅拉的1.9萬名員工？這兩家公司員工隊(duì)伍的差異之大簡(jiǎn)直天差地別,。一家自誕生以來始終保持迅速成長(zhǎng),，體現(xiàn)的是自由奔放的、以工程技術(shù)為主導(dǎo)的企業(yè)文化,；另一家是赫赫有名的集團(tuán)公司,，但近年來卻始終在為生存而奮力掙扎。谷歌首席執(zhí)行官拉利?佩奇在上周一舉行的電話會(huì)議上對(duì)分析師們表示,，收購后兩家公司仍將獨(dú)立運(yùn)營(yíng),，因此摩托羅拉的結(jié)構(gòu)不會(huì)引發(fā)麻煩。這點(diǎn)還有待觀察,。

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之三：手機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)何去何從,？

????摩根士丹利公司（Morgan Stanley）警告投資人士稱，谷歌將面臨棘手的長(zhǎng)期決策,，以決定摩托羅拉手機(jī)生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的名媛：要么不遺余力地繼續(xù)推進(jìn),，要么將之獨(dú)立分割出去，要么干脆停產(chǎn),。谷歌一兩年內(nèi)可能就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)越來越無暇顧及“制造業(yè)務(wù)”,，但這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)短期內(nèi)還不會(huì)是個(gè)拖累。如果佩奇的如意算盤不是僅僅保留專利和寶貴的技術(shù),，同時(shí)迅速切除其他業(yè)務(wù)的話,，他將面臨壓力，分拆手機(jī)制造業(yè)務(wù),，待其累積優(yōu)勢(shì),，重創(chuàng)輝煌。

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之四：出價(jià)過高

????谷歌為專利而收購摩托羅拉移動(dòng)的兩大問題：谷歌是否出價(jià)過高,？此外,，谷歌的專利法律糾紛能否得到切實(shí)解決？

????比如，摩根士丹利就估計(jì)摩托羅拉專利的價(jià)值只有20~30億美元,。但是,，其他公司持不同意見。瑞士信貸銀行（Credit Suisse）指出,，以微軟,、黑莓手機(jī)生產(chǎn)商RIM（Research in Motion）、以及蘋果（Apple）等公司為主導(dǎo)的反谷歌聯(lián)盟在收購北電網(wǎng)絡(luò)的專利時(shí),，平均每項(xiàng)專利花的錢比谷歌還多,。此外，摩托羅拉的專利還包括尚處于開發(fā)中的專利以及待審批的專利,，這些專利就長(zhǎng)期而言具備更大的潛在價(jià)值,。

????而且，谷歌眼下的法律問題仍不明朗,。分析人士對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示,，問題的關(guān)鍵不在于新獲得的專利能給眼下的官司帶來哪些幫助，而在于未來在與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手達(dá)成交易時(shí)每項(xiàng)新專利能帶來的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì),。因此,，谷歌近期的麻煩不會(huì)消失，但現(xiàn)在它有了更多的討價(jià)還價(jià)的資本,。谷歌選擇鯨吞摩托羅拉，而不是只購買其專利庫,，也引起了一些非議,。但是，瑞銀證券的皮茲將谷歌現(xiàn)在的處境比喻為軍備競(jìng)賽：“保險(xiǎn)箱里的存貨越多,，你的處境就越有利,。”

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之五：交易遭否

????對(duì)谷歌來說,，這將是最糟糕的局面,。屆時(shí)，前文所述的種種專利收益將頃刻間化為泡影,，才外,，谷歌還要為此付出慘痛的代價(jià)。據(jù)摩根大通公司（JPMorgan）介紹,，谷歌承諾的單方終止協(xié)議費(fèi)高達(dá)25億美元,，是通常此類交易中標(biāo)準(zhǔn)單方終止協(xié)議費(fèi)的6倍還多。如果聯(lián)邦交易委員會(huì)（Federal Trade Commission）否決了谷歌的出價(jià),，它不僅有可能損失25億美元的現(xiàn)金,，而且還要為眼下的官司支付高昂的和解費(fèi)用。

????但是，分析人士認(rèn)為,，聯(lián)邦交易委員會(huì)不大可能否決此項(xiàng)并購,。鑒于谷歌最近的一些收購案均遷延一月有余，毫無疑問聯(lián)邦交易委員會(huì)亦會(huì)對(duì)此交易進(jìn)行徹底審查,。如果收購對(duì)象屬于谷歌的核心業(yè)務(wù)范疇,，它有理由擔(dān)心聯(lián)邦交易委員會(huì)否決這筆交易，但現(xiàn)在這種情形,，它倒不必過慮,。但是，聯(lián)邦交易委員會(huì)已經(jīng)明確表示,，谷歌的規(guī)模和業(yè)務(wù)范圍越來越大,，它對(duì)此深表憂慮。盡管在2012年初之前,，我們無法確知審查結(jié)果,，但是，谷歌肯定希望不看好交易獲批的分析人士判斷失誤,。

????譯者：大海

????Sometimes, plan B is pretty good. When Google missed out on buying Nortel Networks' patent hoard earlier this summer, few could have predicted it would make a stunning $12.5 billion cash bid for Motorola Mobility.

????The move is sure to change Google's (GOOG) business, not to mention alter the dynamics of Silicon Valley's raging patent disputes. With rumors that rival Microsoft (MSFT) was interested in Motorola's (MMI) patent cache as well, Google clearly made an aggressive defensive move that is also the largest acquisition in its young history. (See Google's 10 biggest acquisitions here.) But every deal has risk – especially one that will likely increase headcount by 60%. Even if the acquisition is eventually deemed a success, it is fraught with potential difficulties.

????Here are the five most plausible scenarios that could give those in the Googleplex serious headaches.

????Risk 1: The Android ecosystem is endangered.

????What does this deal actually mean for the company's partners using the Android mobile operating system? Google's been busy extracting positive remarks about the deal from various partners such as Sony-Ericsson, HTC and Samsung. But if this deal does threaten Android's open ecosystem, it could stymie its growth. Either way, some analysts expect Microsoft to gain clients on its Windows Phone OS as hardware makers protect themselves against possible preferential treatment for Motorola down the line. (Google says Motorola won't be favored.)

????Most analysts Fortune talked to rank this as their top concern. But Brian Pitz at UBS says the company's track record is pretty clean. "Google has never suggested that they want a proprietary ecosystem," Pitz says. "That argument makes no sense when it's not what they want to do."

????Risk 2: Integration.

????Attention has been focused on Motorola's portfolio of 17,000 existing and 7,500 pending patents. What about Motorola's 19,000 people? The shape of the two workforces couldn't be more different. One embodies the free-minded, engineering led culture of a company that's been growing rapidly; the other is a storied group that has been struggling to stay relevant. Google CEO Larry Page told analysts in a conference call Monday that Motorola's structure wouldn't pose a problem given the planned separate operation of the two companies. That remains to be seen.

????Risk 3: What happens to manufacturing?

????Morgan Stanley warned investors that Google will face a tricky long-term decision about Motorola's handset production: aggressively pursue it, spin it off or simply shut it down. 'Making stuff' may prove a mounting distraction in a year or two, but won't be an immediate drag on Google. If Page's plan isn't to keep the patents and valuable technology and quickly cut the rest, expect pressure for a spin-off to build up momentum over time.

????Risk 4: The patents weren't worth it.

????The two big questions about Google's patent pickup: did Google overpay? And, do they really solve Google's legal problems?

????Morgan Stanley, for one, estimates their worth at between just $2 billion and $3 billion. But others disagree. Credit Suisse notes that the anti-Google consortium led by Microsoft, Research in Motion (RIMM) and Apple (AAPL) paid more per patent for Nortel's intellectual property. Plus, Motorola's patents include in-development, pending patents with more potential upside over the long-term.

????The picture for Google's current legal troubles is also unclear. Analysts told Fortune that the key is not so much what each new patent covers in terms of current lawsuits but more so in terms of future leverage in reaching a deal with rivals. So the company's headaches in the short-term won't disappear, but it is in a much better bargaining position now. Google's choice to purchase Motorola outright rather than simply license its patent portfolio has raised some eyebrows. But UBS's Pitz compares Google's position to an arms race, "The more paper you can stack in your safe, the better-off you are going to be."

????Risk 5: FTC Rejection

????This would be the worst-case scenario for Google, as it would immediately lose the patent benefits outlined above and pay dearly for its trouble. According to JPMorgan, Google's promised break-up fee, $2.5 billion, is over six times the standard amount for such a deal. If regulators reject Google's bid, it stands to lose all that cash and face costly settlements in ongoing legal attacks.

????Analysts disagree on the odds of a regulatory setback though. Given the months-long delay for Google's most recent acquisitions, there's no question this one will garner intense scrutiny at the Federal Trade Commission. Google doesn't have to worry as it would if it bought a company in its core business, but the FTC has made it clear it's concerned about Google's increasing size and scope. We won't know until likely early 2012, but Google will hope to prove wrong analysts who consider approval its greatest concern on the deal.