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????但對(duì)于希臘,，經(jīng)濟(jì)界人士認(rèn)為,，救助計(jì)劃所要求的財(cái)政緊縮措施將會(huì)拉低其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度,，削弱該國(guó)在未來(lái)多年內(nèi)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。另外,，工業(yè)化國(guó)家實(shí)行有序違約沒有先例,，這也是歐元區(qū)事態(tài)令投資者感到擔(dān)憂的原因之一。

????“人們?cè)J(rèn)為,，工業(yè)化國(guó)家的債務(wù)是安全的,。這種觀點(diǎn)是債券市場(chǎng)的主要支柱之一，”彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的雅各布?柯克加德說(shuō),?！暗F(xiàn)在市場(chǎng)開始懷疑，如果希臘國(guó)債存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),，那么其他工業(yè)化國(guó)家的國(guó)債也可能會(huì)面臨同樣的問題,?！?/p>

祈禱軟著陸

????人們希望,，如果歐債危機(jī)惡化，將催生更大規(guī)模的救助資金,，比如大幅擴(kuò)大歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（the European Financial Stability Facility）,。意大利是歐元區(qū)最大的債務(wù)人之一，其沉重的債務(wù)令歐洲銀行的健康狀況受到質(zhì)疑,，因?yàn)檫@些銀行購(gòu)買了大量的意大利國(guó)債?，F(xiàn)在的問題在于，歐洲的緊急救助資金遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠,，僅能支持希臘,、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭這樣的小國(guó)。

????金融家兼商人喬治?索羅斯說(shuō),，歐債危機(jī)曝露了歐元的一個(gè)明顯弱點(diǎn),，也就是在歐元的結(jié)構(gòu)中缺乏一個(gè)共同的金庫(kù)。雖然歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金的任務(wù)就是為整個(gè)歐元區(qū)提供安全保障,，但它卻只能籌集資金,；至于這筆錢如何使用，則是成員國(guó)政府說(shuō)了算,。

????“這使得歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金在應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)方面毫無(wú)用處,。它必須等待成員國(guó)發(fā)號(hào)施令，”索羅斯本月早些時(shí)候在《紐約書評(píng)》（The New York Review of Books）上撰文稱,。

????毫無(wú)疑問,，歐元區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人確實(shí)在某種程度上擴(kuò)大了歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金，但在7月份舉行的峰會(huì)上,，他們拒絕了更大膽的擴(kuò)充方案,。大規(guī)模擴(kuò)大歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金將有助于使全球市場(chǎng)相信，該基金有能力應(yīng)對(duì)任何問題——甚至是意大利的債務(wù),。但包括法國(guó)和德國(guó)在內(nèi)的幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵國(guó)家反對(duì)擴(kuò)大該基金,。這是可以理解的，因?yàn)槿绻蛳萑肜Ь车臍W洲國(guó)家注入更多資金,，某些國(guó)家的財(cái)政狀況就會(huì)吃緊,，而面臨著選民不滿情緒的國(guó)家則可能出現(xiàn)政治動(dòng)蕩。

????然而,，國(guó)際國(guó)幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）向歐元區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人強(qiáng)調(diào),，大規(guī)模擴(kuò)大歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金勢(shì)在必行。雖然目前還不知道國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的言論會(huì)有多大影響力,，但該組織或許會(huì)在解決歐債危機(jī)方面分擔(dān)部分融資壓力，而這種可能性會(huì)為大規(guī)模擴(kuò)大歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金爭(zhēng)取到更多的支持,。

????無(wú)論是有序還是無(wú)序違約,，都無(wú)法安撫市場(chǎng)。但擴(kuò)大歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金卻有可能讓焦慮不安的投資者平靜下來(lái),。

????譯者：千牛絮

????But for Greece, economists believe austerity measures attached to its rescue package will slow economic growth and weaken the country's competitiveness for years to come. What's more, orderly defaults in industrialized nations are essentially unprecedented, which partly explains why investors are so spooked by what's happening in the eurozone.

????"One of the founding pillars is this concept that the debt of industrialized countries is risk free," says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "Markets are asking if it turns out there's risk in Greece maybe there are other countries in the industrialized world that face the same issues."

Hope for a soft landing

????One of the big hopes, if the eurozone's debt crisis worsens, is that it would force a larger rescue fund, such as dramatic expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility. Italy is one of the eurozone's biggest debtors and its heavy debts have raised questions about the health of European banks, which have bought bundles of Italian bonds. The problem is that Europe's emergency bailout resources are far from enough to support anything more than smaller countries such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

????One of the glaring weaknesses that the debt crisis has exposed is the lack of a common treasury in the construction of the euro, financier and businessman George Soros has said. While the EFSF is tasked with providing a safety net for the eurozone as a whole, the fund merely has the ability to raise money, leaving governments of member countries with authority over how to spend it.

????"This renders the EFSF useless in responding to a crisis; it has to await instruction from the member countries," Soros wrote earlier this month in The New York Review of Books.

????To be sure, eurozone leaders did widen the EFSF some but refused other bigger expansions during a summit in July. Committing much more money would likely have helped convince global markets that the fund is big enough to can handle just about anything -- even Italy. Several key governments, including France and Berlin, oppose strengthening the fund. And understandably so, since agreeing to pledging ever-growing sums of money to weak European states could strain the finances of some governments while causing political havoc for those dealing with disgruntled voters.

????Nevertheless, the International Monetary Fund has urged eurozone leaders that a much bigger fund is needed. It remains to be seen how much influence the global lender has, but perhaps the possibility that the organization might share some of the financial burden in resolving the crisis could bring more support for a much grander EFSF.

????A default -- however orderly or disorderly -- hasn't been able to calm markets. Spooked investors might likely find calm in an expanded EFSF.