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????全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正深陷泥潭難以自拔,，以至于下面這個(gè)消息顯得有些難以置信：普拉達(dá)（Prada）上周二宣布,，這個(gè)夏季的業(yè)績(jī)非常出色，超出華爾街分析師的預(yù)期,。任何做空這家奢侈品公司的投資者現(xiàn)在都吃了大虧,。盡管目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)是60年以來(lái)最差的，顯然還是有許多人愿意為2,000美元一個(gè)的手袋買單,。

????這一業(yè)績(jī)令人驚喜,。普拉達(dá)今年上半年新開了26家專賣店，總門店數(shù)量已達(dá)358家,。業(yè)績(jī)超預(yù)期的一大原因是,，該品牌沒(méi)有像前幾年那樣被迫低價(jià)甩賣產(chǎn)品。那么,，這是不是意味著苦日子已經(jīng)到頭了,？

????美國(guó)還沒(méi)有。盡管普拉達(dá)上半年在美國(guó)銷售額增至率達(dá)到了16%,，但它在亞洲市場(chǎng)的增幅更是高達(dá)35%,，總營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)了24%。新增銷售額中有一半得益于亞洲市場(chǎng)的貢獻(xiàn),，其中多數(shù)來(lái)自中國(guó)專賣店的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn),。普拉達(dá)在亞洲已有110家專門店,，超過(guò)了整個(gè)歐洲（104家），比美國(guó)（40家）更是高出幾倍,。說(shuō)到底,，中國(guó)人真的是什么都買。

????從更普遍的角度來(lái)看,，或許更好的表述是：富人什么都買,，窮人啥都買不起。專門研究服飾和鞋類公司的瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）分析師克里斯蒂安?巴斯將這種反差歸因于美國(guó)兩類不同類型消費(fèi)者之間貧富差距的擴(kuò)大,。這兩類消費(fèi)者可以分別稱為“收入報(bào)表型”消費(fèi)者和“資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表型”消費(fèi)者,。

????簡(jiǎn)而言之：54.5%的美國(guó)消費(fèi)者年收入低于10萬(wàn)美元，這些人就是所謂的“收入報(bào)表型”消費(fèi)者——他們根據(jù)本周的收入有多少,，來(lái)決定是否購(gòu)買某種商品,。我們更進(jìn)一步，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)在年收入低于5萬(wàn)美元的群體中,，失業(yè)率維持在17%左右,。統(tǒng)統(tǒng)加總起來(lái)的話，過(guò)去十年來(lái),，那些年收入低于10萬(wàn)美元的消費(fèi)者在美國(guó)總消費(fèi)支出中所占的比例下降了6%,。同一期間內(nèi)，這一人群的收入占國(guó)民收入的比例也從58%下降到了54.5%,。

????巴斯認(rèn)為，據(jù)此可得出簡(jiǎn)明扼要的結(jié)論：不要買入銷售簡(jiǎn)單的非必需品的公司的股票,，除非其股價(jià)已經(jīng)非常低廉,，遠(yuǎn)低于公允價(jià)值。這意味著極速騎板（Quiksilver）和哥倫比亞運(yùn)動(dòng)服飾（Columbia Sportswear）等公司可能面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。就極速騎板來(lái)說(shuō),，該公司是一家成熟品牌，目前正在進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)型,。此外,，過(guò)于專注于美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的公司恐怕也不該看好，因?yàn)槠绽_(dá)的業(yè)績(jī)表明,，服飾企業(yè)當(dāng)前的增長(zhǎng)潛力主要來(lái)自中國(guó),。此類公司包括以美國(guó)市場(chǎng)為核心的Limited Brands和Under Armour。

????接下來(lái)的是好消息：巴斯隨后又闡述了“資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表型”消費(fèi)者——也就是年收入高于10萬(wàn)美元的那45.5%人群,。這些人的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣通常并不會(huì)根據(jù)周薪變化而調(diào)整,。他們的失業(yè)率維持在3.6%左右，用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的話來(lái)說(shuō),，這可算“完全就業(yè)”,。（別問(wèn)我為什么,，顯然他們認(rèn)為4%的失業(yè)率已經(jīng)是好得不能再好。）“資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表型”消費(fèi)者正享受著一派繁榮——過(guò)去十年來(lái)他們的平均收入增長(zhǎng)了10%,，在國(guó)民收入中所占的比例自然也從42%提升到了45.5%,。

????巴斯描述此種變化的方式非常謹(jǐn)慎，他表示：“我認(rèn)為,，人們應(yīng)當(dāng)認(rèn)識(shí)到經(jīng)濟(jì)中出現(xiàn)了結(jié)構(gòu)性變化,，這相當(dāng)重要——資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表型消費(fèi)者從總收入這塊餡餅中分到的比例越來(lái)越大?！睋Q句話說(shuō),，富人越來(lái)越富。

????巴斯的結(jié)論可不是玩笑話,。哪些公司在做富人的生意,，從而大賺特賺呢？普拉達(dá)當(dāng)然少不了,； Coach也是個(gè)典型,，后者最近一個(gè)季度的業(yè)績(jī)非常搶眼，中國(guó)市場(chǎng)銷售額猛增了71%,。

????愛馬仕（Hermes）呢,？這家公司以騎手風(fēng)格圍巾和領(lǐng)帶著稱，今年上半年?duì)I收猛增22%,。

????最后再推薦一個(gè)公司：運(yùn)動(dòng)服飾制造商Lululemon,。盡管我本人偏愛耐克（Nike）的運(yùn)動(dòng)服，我對(duì)Lululemon這家公司或者瑜伽運(yùn)動(dòng)本身都沒(méi)什么意見,?？墒牵l(shuí)會(huì)買100美元一條的瑜伽褲,？富人,，沒(méi)錯(cuò)，就是那些有錢人,。加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）分析師霍華德?圖賓最近表示,，這個(gè)季度他看過(guò)的財(cái)報(bào)中，數(shù)Lululemon的業(yè)績(jī)最強(qiáng)勁,。最近一個(gè)季度里,，該公司的營(yíng)收、利潤(rùn)率和每股收益全部實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng),，這倒有點(diǎn)像普拉達(dá),。盡管如此，這只股票的表現(xiàn)表明人們普遍看好這家公司，因此現(xiàn)在算不上入手的絕佳機(jī)會(huì),。

????借著瑜伽流行的東風(fēng),，Lulu甚至有可能搶走普拉達(dá)的風(fēng)頭。美國(guó)銀行（Bank of America）分析師羅萊因?哈奇辛認(rèn)為該公司2012年將會(huì)新開35家專賣店,。最近一個(gè)季度,，該公司營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)了40%。也許每個(gè)人心里都藏著個(gè)瑜伽大師,，或者藏著對(duì)真皮手包的渴求,，抑或兩者兼有。

????Here's a piece of counter-narrative news as economies around the globe continue to struggle: Prada announced yesterday that it had a great quarter this summer, exceeding Wall Street's expectations. Anyone who bet against the luxury brand is now chastised. Even in the worst economy in a generation, plenty of people are apparently going to buy those $2,000 handbags.

????The results were surprising. Prada opened 26 stores in the first half of the year, bringing its total to 358. One of the reasons it beat the mark was that it wasn't forced into discounts as it had been in recent years. So does this mean the pain is actually over?

????Not on these shores. Even though Prada saw U.S. sales growth of 16% in the half, it also enjoyed a 35% sales rise in Asia. Revenues grew 24% overall. A full 50% of total sales growth came courtesy of Asia, mostly from spending in stores in China itself. One hundred and ten of the company's stores are in Asia—more than in all of Europe (104) and many, many than in the entire United States (40). In the end, the Chinese really will buy everything.

????Or, in more general terms, the rich will buy everything while the poor will buy nothing. Christian Buss, who covers apparel and footwear for Credit Suisse, attributes the divergence in the U.S. to the growing chasm between two types of consumers: 'Income Statement' consumers and 'Balance Sheet' consumers.

????Here's the basic idea: 54.5% of U.S. consumers make less than $100,000 a year. These are 'Income Statement' consumers, the kind of people who decide whether they want to buy something based on this week's paycheck. Working our way down, the unemployment rate for those making less than $50,000 per year hovers around 17%. All-in, the role of those earning under $100,000 in our overall spending has declined by 6% over the past ten years. The income for the entire crowd has declined from 58% of the total to 54.5% over that time.

????The simple conclusion, according to Buss: don't buy stock in those companies that sell simple discretionary items, except if you're going to go deep discount. That means that Quiksilver (ZQK) and Columbia Sportswear (COLM) could be at risk. Quiksilver, for its part, is a mature brand and also in the midst of a turnaround. And don't focus on companies that have too much of a domestic focus since, as Prada shows, much of the growth potential right now is coming from China. That would include U.S.-centric companies like Limited Brands (LTD) and Under Armour (UA).

????Here's the good news. Buss goes on to identify 'Balance Sheet' consumers -- the 45.5% of the people who make more than $100,000 a year. These are people whose spending doesn't really change based on their weekly paycheck. Their employment rate hovers around 3.6%, what economists call "full employment." (Don't ask me. Apparently 4% unemployed is like 11 on the Spinal Tap amp.) The 'Balance Sheet' consumers are thriving -- they have seen an increase in average income of 10% over the past 10 years. Their share of total income has naturally risen, from 42% to 45.5%.

????Buss states the change in a very politic way. "I think it's important for people to know that this is a structural change in the economy," he says, "that the balance sheet consumer continues to gain share of the total income pie." In other words, the richer are getting richer.

????The man isn't kidding. So who is selling to the rich and winning? Prada, for one. Coach, for two. Coach (COH) nailed it in its last quarter. It had 71% sales growth in China.

????And what of Hermes? The maker of equestrian-inspired scarves and ties enjoyed 22% revenue growth in the first half of the year.

????Here's a final one for you: athletic apparel maker Lululemon (LULU). While I prefer Nike (NKE) running clothing, I have nothing against the chain. Or even yoga itself. But who is buying $100 pairs of yoga pants? The rich, that's who. RBC analyst Howard Tubin said recently that Lululemon's results were among the strongest he'd seen this reporting season. Lululemon had all of revenue growth, margin growth, and earnings-per-share growth in its latest quarter. Kind of like Prada. That said, the stock reflects people's excitement about the story, so it's no screaming buy.

????Lulu may even run down the Yogi's lane against the Italians. Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchsion thinks Lululemon will open 35 stores in 2012. The firm's sales increased 40% in their last quarter. Perhaps we will all find our inner yoga master. Or our need for leather handbags. Or both.