????全球經(jīng)濟(jì)可能重新陷入衰退,，各國市場持續(xù)劇烈波動,，各國央行在貨幣政策制定方面必須艱難地找準(zhǔn)平衡。多國央行都對本國經(jīng)濟(jì)注入了龐大的刺激資金,，使主權(quán)債務(wù)余額大幅增加,，可能需要幾十年時(shí)間才能消化；有些央行則暗示會削減刺激計(jì)劃并提高利率,，使人們更加擔(dān)憂突如其來的通脹可能影響經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,。
????盡管這些央行的行為不盡完美，總的來說它們確實(shí)有助于緩解經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的嚴(yán)重性,。不過,，最近有一些央行采取的政策不是為了緩解本國貨幣匯率的波動，而是為了操縱匯率,，在國際市場上贏得優(yōu)勢,。盡管這種“貨幣戰(zhàn)”與真正的戰(zhàn)爭還差得很遠(yuǎn)，它們對自由市場全球貿(mào)易同樣有著明顯的負(fù)面作用,。
????許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都將中國稱為造成貨幣不平衡的關(guān)鍵影響因子,，中國嚴(yán)重依賴出口來保持經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速增長。這些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,，中國長期以來的政策是：向本國經(jīng)濟(jì)注入大量資金,，同時(shí)買入其他國家的國債。這樣做的效果是使人民幣相對于其他貨幣的匯率低估,，從而降低出口到海外的中國貨物的相對價(jià)格,；而其他希望向中國銷售本國產(chǎn)品的國家則會面臨相對較高的出口價(jià)格。
????頗具諷刺意味的是,，中國的貨幣政策在控制國內(nèi)通脹方面并不成功,，該國的工資水平和消費(fèi)物價(jià)都在穩(wěn)步攀升。根據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）最近公布的數(shù)據(jù),，2010年中國消費(fèi)物價(jià)上漲了5%,；相比之下,，美國和歐元區(qū)只上漲了1.6%。隨著中國逐步出現(xiàn)劉易斯拐點(diǎn)（Lewisian Turning Point）式的現(xiàn)象,，平均工資和熟練工人平均工資預(yù)期的增長將更為迅猛,。這種理論由阿瑟?劉易斯提出，指勞動力需求增長速度超過供給增長的速度,。
????至于西方國家是否應(yīng)該使本國貨幣貶值,，以反制中國的貨幣政策，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家之間存在許多爭議,。盡管這一舉措可能會暫時(shí)降低西方國家出口貨物的相對價(jià)格,，但它導(dǎo)致的債務(wù)將會使這些國家的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表更加脆弱，只從短期著眼的思維方式將給今后的幾代人留下嚴(yán)重后果,。 |
|
|
????As global markets continue to see-saw on the verge of another recession, central banks across the world face a difficult balancing act of monetary policy. Massive injections of stimulus funds have been deployed in many cases, creating outstanding balances of sovereign debt that may take decades to resolve. Other banks are hinting at reduced stimulus funding and higher interest rates, fueling fears that sudden inflation could damage the economic recovery.
????Although imperfect, these central bank actions have been helpful in moderating the severity of economic cycles over time. However, more recently, some bankers have adopted policies intended not to moderate but rather to manipulate domestic currency exchange rates and gain advantage on the global playing field. This "currency war," although far different from its military namesake, has equally significant implications for free-market global trade.
????Many economists cite China, which relies heavily on exports to fuel its fast-growing economy, as a key influencer in the currency imbalance. According to these economists, the nation has long followed a policy of injecting large sums of money into its economy and buying debt from other nations. This has the effect of undervaluing the Chinese yuan compared to other currencies, and lowering the relative cost of Chinese goods shipped abroad. Other nations, which seek to sell their own goods to China, face higher relative export prices as a result.
????Ironically, China's monetary policies have not been successful in controlling domestic inflation, as both wages and consumer prices are rising steadily. According to recent IMF data, consumer prices in China increased 5% in 2010 compared to about 1.6% in the U.S. and euro zone. Chinese wages and skilled worker wage expectations are growing even more rapidly, as the country approaches a Lewisian Turning Point-type phenomenon – the economic theory named after Arthur Lewis where demand for labor begins to outpace the available supply.
????There is much debate among economists as to whether Western nations should counter China's monetary policy by deflating their own currencies. Although this might temporarily reduce the cost of goods exported from the West, the resulting debt would further weaken their balance sheets and pass the consequences of short-term thinking to future generations. |
