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????持續(xù)蔓延的歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)大有演變?yōu)槿蚪鹑跒?zāi)難之勢(shì),，雖然各方已通過(guò)一系列措施努力防范，但仍然不能安撫投資者的情緒：希臘,、葡萄牙和愛(ài)爾蘭都處于崩潰邊緣,，意大利和西班牙可能緊隨其后。盡管德國(guó)和法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)現(xiàn)在還過(guò)得去,，但就算是這些健康的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,，也出現(xiàn)了疲軟的跡象。

????上周二,，希臘議會(huì)投票通過(guò)法案,，開(kāi)征一項(xiàng)非常不得人心的財(cái)產(chǎn)稅。這一舉措是其緊縮計(jì)劃的一部分,，而后者則這是獲得歐盟援助資金的前提,。此外，歐盟官員們正在采取措施充實(shí)一項(xiàng)基金,，以便向麻煩纏身的成員國(guó)提供低息貸款,。

????可是，就算歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（the European Financial Stability Facility）的權(quán)限得以擴(kuò)大,，其效率仍然是個(gè)未知數(shù),。投資者仍然擔(dān)心，如果西班牙或意大利等規(guī)模更大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體突然需要援助,，這個(gè)成立于去年的基金依然拿不出足夠的資金,。

????政界現(xiàn)階段或許無(wú)意尋求更大膽的主意，但市場(chǎng)對(duì)此卻十分期待,，因?yàn)闅W洲債務(wù)危機(jī)可能將全世界都拖入新一輪的嚴(yán)重衰退,。

????正如資產(chǎn)管理公司Gluskin Sheff & Associates的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家大衛(wèi)?羅森博格在周二希臘議會(huì)投票前所寫(xiě)的備忘錄中所稱：市場(chǎng)希望“有人砸出海量的資金來(lái)解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題,，不管誰(shuí)買單都無(wú)所謂（只要不是銀行持有這些債務(wù)就行?。,！?/p>

????其中一種解決方案是,，給希臘一筆規(guī)模大得多的援助資金，條件是一旦該國(guó)債務(wù)累累的經(jīng)濟(jì)體開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇并實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng),，作為回報(bào),，它必須拿出更多資金償還債務(wù),，哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授肯尼斯?羅格夫就支持這個(gè)方案。

????這個(gè)方案與他解救美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的設(shè)想頗為相似,。美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)目前仍然深陷困境,，許多房主所承擔(dān)的抵押貸款甚至超過(guò)了房屋的現(xiàn)價(jià)。羅格夫認(rèn)為,，如果房主同意分享住宅未來(lái)升值的收益,，銀行可以減記其貸款余額。同理,，如果希臘愿意在未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)的時(shí)候多加回報(bào),，歐洲的富裕國(guó)家也就可能同意給希臘規(guī)模大得多的援助（用羅格夫的話來(lái)說(shuō)，“大到真的管用”）,。

????如此一來(lái),，借款方和援助方都有理由期待這筆交易能夠成功?；蛟S更重要的是,，雙方都付出了代價(jià)，沒(méi)人可以免費(fèi)搭便車——至少在原則上是這樣,。

????就美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的例子而言,，這種方案意味著雙贏。不僅那些所欠貸款超過(guò)房屋市價(jià)的房主能夠獲利,，而且貸款方和投資者最終也能獲得回報(bào),，使其給予借款方喘息之機(jī)的舉動(dòng)同樣有利于自己。同理,，負(fù)債累累的歐洲邊緣成員國(guó)的債務(wù)壓力將會(huì)大幅減輕,。一旦這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體重新實(shí)現(xiàn)健康成長(zhǎng)——比方說(shuō)在10到15年之后——納稅人必須將國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）增長(zhǎng)額的一定比例償還給富國(guó)。

????除此之外,，羅格夫并未作出詳細(xì)闡釋,，但幾乎可以肯定地推斷：任何此類計(jì)劃都將緩解希臘的緊縮政策——?dú)W洲央行和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織迫使希臘推行此類政策，以交換援助資金,?？蛇@些措施給希臘造就了一把雙刃劍，如果希臘未來(lái)不能實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),，又怎么可能償還貸款,？

????沒(méi)錯(cuò)，讓一個(gè)負(fù)擔(dān)著巨額債務(wù)的國(guó)家削減開(kāi)支是合情合理的,。但事實(shí)證明,，裁掉數(shù)以千計(jì)的政府雇員，提高稅收,，給希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了災(zāi)難性的后果,。該國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的萎縮幅度超出所有人的預(yù)期,，2010年下降了6%，截至6月份的三個(gè)月中又下降了7.3%,。如果增長(zhǎng)率繼續(xù)下降,，希臘將無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)財(cái)政收入目標(biāo)，甚至?xí)蟾嘣?。市?chǎng)走勢(shì)表明,，投資者預(yù)期希臘最終將會(huì)債務(wù)違約，很大程度上正是因?yàn)閾?dān)憂上述惡性循環(huán),。

????據(jù)彭博社（Bloomberg）報(bào)道,，希臘國(guó)債暴跌，表明投資者認(rèn)為違約率超過(guò)90%,。目前,，希臘兩年期國(guó)債的收益率已經(jīng)超過(guò)70%。

????羅格夫的主意實(shí)質(zhì)上就是給希臘提供一筆可以延期償還的長(zhǎng)期貸款,。這個(gè)計(jì)劃并非沒(méi)有缺陷,，很可能招致政界的反對(duì)——至少眼下的確如此。德國(guó)顯然已經(jīng)受夠了,，不愿再做歐洲的終極貸款人,。盡管為更大規(guī)模的援助計(jì)劃提供資金最終可能使德國(guó)獲得豐厚回報(bào)，但這仍然很可能被視為富國(guó)免費(fèi)援助窮國(guó),，而后者卻不顧自身經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力,，肆意揮霍資金。

????況且,，密歇根大學(xué)福特公共政策學(xué)院(University of Michigan's Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy)副院長(zhǎng)艾倫?迪爾多夫指出,，現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題不僅是如何讓富國(guó)參與進(jìn)來(lái)，希臘本身也得要有動(dòng)力才行,，否則該國(guó)可能也不會(huì)同意這個(gè)方案,，因?yàn)樗鼘?shí)際上相當(dāng)于開(kāi)征新稅，將來(lái)出現(xiàn)任何形式的收入增長(zhǎng)都將被征稅,。事實(shí)上,，對(duì)未來(lái)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)所征的稅必須控制在一定比例之內(nèi)，否則希臘就會(huì)喪失促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)力,。而希臘的增長(zhǎng)有賴于對(duì)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行深層次的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革,。

????雖然羅格夫的想法當(dāng)前可能無(wú)法獲得政治上的支持，但至少在理性上,，它頗有吸引力,，稍晚些時(shí)候或許會(huì)更值得考慮。

????譯者：小宇

????After a series of efforts to keep Europe's ongoing debt crisis from turning into a worldwide financial disaster, it seems as though little has calmed investors: Greece, Portugal and Ireland are on the brink. Italy and Spain could be next. And while the economies of Germany and France are doing okay for now, even the healthy ones are showing signs of weakness.

????Late Tuesday, lawmakers in Athens voted on a hugely unpopular property tax as part of a package of cuts to secure funds for a bailout package. Officials are also working to beef up a fund that facilitates low-cost loans for struggling EU countries.

????But even with new powers granted to the European Financial Stability Facility, it's still uncertain how effective it will be. Investors continue to worry that the fund, established last year, won't have enough money if bigger economies such as Spain or Italy suddenly need a lifeline.

????Politicians may not be looking for bold ideas at this point, but the markets certainly are, as Europe's debt crisis threatens to plunge the world into another deep recession.

????As Gluskin Sheff & Associates chief economist David Rosenberg wrote ahead of Tuesday's vote: The markets want "massive amounts of money thrown at the problem, regardless of who pays (so long as it's not the banks holding the debt!)."

????One solution is to give Greece a much bigger bailout in exchange for bigger payments once its heavily indebted economy begins to heal and grow, as Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff has suggested.

????The idea is analogous to what he thinks could help fix America's troubled housing market. Just as homeowners could receive write-downs on their underwater mortgages in exchange for claims on a percentage of future appreciation of their homes, rich countries in Europe could possibly agree to a much bigger bailout for Greece (one, as Rogoff says, that's "actually big enough to work") in return for higher payments later if its economy outperforms.

????That way, both borrower and lender would have a stake in seeing the deal succeed. And perhaps more importantly, nobody is really getting a free ride – at least in principle.

????In the case of the U.S. housing market, this would potentially mean a win not only for homeowners who owe more on their homes than their properties are worth, but also a win for lenders and investors who would eventually be repaid for giving borrowers a break. Conversely, Europe's heavily indebted peripheral countries would get meaningful relief on their debt payments. Once these economies grow in healthier fashion – say 10 to 15 years from now – taxpayers would repay the rich countries via a portion of its GDP gains.

????Rogoff hasn't elaborated much beyond this, but it's almost assumed that any such plan would include easing austerity measures that the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund have forced on Greece in order to secure its bailout money. These measures have created a double-edge sword for Greece, since it can't possibly repay the loans if it can't grow.

????True, it makes sense for a nation with huge debts to cut spending. But laying off thousands of workers and raising taxes has proven devastating on the Greek economy. GDP has shrunk more than anyone expected, falling 6% in 2010 and 7.3% during the three months ending in June. A further decline in growth could cause Greece to miss revenue targets and even seek more bailouts, which is largely why the market is pricing in the likelihood that Greece will eventually default.

????Greek bonds have plunged, putting the chance of default at more than 90%, according to Bloomberg. Two-year notes yield more than 70%.

????Now back to Rogoff's idea of giving Greece what would essentially be a long-term loan with delayed payments -- it has its drawbacks. Politicians would likely be against it, at least today. Germany is clearly fed up and resents having to be Europe's banker of last resort. And even though Germany could get substantial returns for funding bigger bailouts, this could still easily be viewed as rich states giving handouts to poor states that haphazardly spent beyond its means.

????The problem isn't just getting rich countries on board, however, says Alan Deardorff, associate dean of University of Michigan's Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. Greece would need an incentive to agree to what would essentially create a tax on any rise in income. Indeed, any collection on future GDP growth would have to be limited to a certain percentage so that Greece would have an incentive to grow its economy. And growth, at least in the long-term, would depend significantly on deep structural reforms in the state's economy.

????Nevertheless, if Rogoff's idea may not be politically feasible today, it's at least intellectually appealing. And something perhaps worth considering later.