????花旗集團(Citigroup)首席執(zhí)行官潘偉迪說,，我們不會重返衰退。
????“我不認為美國將陷入衰退,，”周三早間潘偉迪在接受《財富》(Fortune)雜志主編賽安迪的采訪時如是說,。“經(jīng)濟增速可能不如我們期望的那樣,，但我認為不會有倒退,。”
????作為一個大型銀行的首席執(zhí)行官,，潘偉迪發(fā)表這番言論的時機頗為尷尬,。經(jīng)濟危機爆發(fā)三年之后，占領華爾街的抗議者們再度瞄準了華爾街高管們,。事實上如潘偉迪所說,，Twitter上有消息稱抗議者們計劃前往他在曼哈頓的公寓示威。潘偉迪稱他本人理解抗議者們面對高失業(yè)率,、高政府負債和經(jīng)濟放緩時產(chǎn)生的沮喪情緒,。“人們的心情完全可以理解,，”他說,，“經(jīng)濟復蘇不如我們所有人的預期?！?/p>
????花旗股價劇烈震蕩之際,，近幾周潘偉迪接受了一系列采訪，周三是最新的一個采訪,。今年以來,，花旗股價已跌去41%，僅僅過去三個月已從40美元跌至23美元,，周三躍升回28美元,。該股當前股價僅為有形賬面價值的0.6倍。
????“你知道在眼下這樣的市場,，很難衡量到底是什么在推動股價,，”潘偉迪稱，“特別是眼下人們信心受損?！?/p>
????潘偉迪多次談到,，自從幾年前金融危機令花旗瀕于破產(chǎn)以來，花旗集團已“回到了銀行業(yè)務的根本”,，但投資者似乎并不相信,。花旗集團投資者們可能正在將歐洲違約,、市場震蕩持續(xù),、全球經(jīng)濟增速放緩以及美國再次陷入衰退等一系列不利因素可能給該行造成的影響進行建模和再建模分析。他們面對的是一支股價已經(jīng)跌回到2009年年中水平的銀行股,。當時,，花旗還沒有剔除3,000多億美元的不良資產(chǎn)，美國政府也還遠未售罄其在該公司的bailout stake,。
????舉例來說,，法國農(nóng)業(yè)信貸銀行(Credit Agricole)分析師邁克?梅奧認為，如果美國和其他地區(qū)的貸款不能有實質(zhì)性增長,，2011年下半年花旗的銷售收入環(huán)比將下降3%,。與此同時，由于企業(yè)界都在等待市場震蕩的結(jié)束,，投行業(yè)務中利潤豐厚的承銷收入可能縮減50%，并購費也處于停滯狀態(tài),。
????當然,，潘偉迪并不想讓自己聽上去好像對大量的經(jīng)濟放緩跡象一無所知。他暗示,，花旗正在重拾支出審慎的傳統(tǒng)美德,，因為公司正竭力兌現(xiàn)承諾，明年將通過股票回購或增加派息將更多資本回報給投資者,。
????周三,，潘偉迪提醒讀者們，花旗集團抵押貸款組合的規(guī)模在美國各大銀行中處于末流,?；ㄆ煺谛屡d市場大力發(fā)展銀行機構(gòu)，這些地區(qū)向花旗貢獻了超過一半的凈利潤,。而且,，由于無法放出足夠多的優(yōu)質(zhì)貸款，花旗的資產(chǎn)負債表上有25%是現(xiàn)金和現(xiàn)金等價物,。
????潘偉迪在周三的訪談中還間接提到了花旗的桑迪?韋爾時代,。他告訴讀者們，2007年他接任首席執(zhí)行官一職時，“有一點我認為很清楚,，成為一家金融超市不是一個(好的)戰(zhàn)略,。”事實上,，上個十年曾占據(jù)美國銀行業(yè)頭把交椅的花旗集團目前只居于第三位,，排在美國銀行(Bank of America)和摩根大通(JP Morgan)之后。
????潘偉迪還告訴讀者們,，他支持所謂的沃爾克法則(Volcker rule),，這項法則將限制銀行以自有資金對股票和債券進行投機。法則草案上周遭到泄密,，潘偉迪稱花旗龐大的法律團隊仍在對草案進行分析,。但他表示，“我覺得,，他們可能已在兩方面都找到了適當?shù)钠胶?。?/p> |
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????Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit says we're not headed back into a downturn.
????"I don't expect the U.S. to go into a recession," Pandit said Wednesday morning during a wide-ranging interview with Fortune managing editor Andy Serwer. "It may not grow as much as we like it to grow, but I don't see it slipping back."
????His comments come at an awkward time for a major bank CEO. Occupy Wall Street protesters have put Wall Street executives back in the crosshairs three years after the economic collapse. As Pandit spoke, in fact, some Twitter messages said protesters planned to march to his Manhattan apartment. For his part, Pandit said he recognizes protesters' frustration with high unemployment, huge government debts, and a slowing economy. "Their sentiments are completely understandable," he says. "The economic recovery is not what we all want it to be."
????Wednesday's talk was the latest in a string of interviews Pandit has given over the past few weeks as Citi's stock thrashes about. This year shares have fallen 41%, and in just the past three months they dropped from $40 to $23 before sprinting back to $28 today. The stock trades for just 0.6 times tangible book value.
????"You know, in markets like these, it's very hard to gauge exactly what drives stock prices," says Pandit, "particularly as people's confidence gets affected."
????Pandit said repeatedly that Citigroup had gotten "back to the basics of banking" since the financial crisis put it on the brink of failure several years ago, but investors don't seem to believe that story yet. Citigroup (C) investors are probably modeling, and re-modeling, the bank's exposure to a European default, continued market volatility, slower global economic growth, and another recession hitting the U.S. What they come up with is a bank stock worth the same as it was in mid-2009, before Citi had rid itself of more than $300 billion worth of bad assets and well before the U.S. government had sold off its bailout stake in the company.
????Credit Agricole analyst Mike Mayo, for one, thinks without meaningful loan growth in the U.S. and elsewhere, Citi's sales in the second half of 2011 will drop by 3% compared to the first half of the year. Meanwhile, lucrative investment banking revenues for underwriting could decline by 50% and M&A fees are also on hold as companies wait out the market tumult.
????Of course, Pandit doesn't want to sound out of touch with signs of an economic slowdown abound, and he's hinted that good old expense prudence is coming to Citi as it tries to make good on its promise to return more capital to investors next year through share buybacks or a dividend hike.
????On Wednesday, Pandit reminded the audience that Citigroup has among the smallest mortgage portfolios of any major U.S. bank. It's building banks in emerging markets, where Citi earns more than half its bottom line. And it's holding 25% of its balance sheet in cash and cash equivalents because the bank just can't write enough good loans.
????In an oblique reference to Citi's Sandy Weill era, Pandit told the audience Wednesday that when he took over as CEO in late 2007, "it was pretty clear to me that being a supermarket wasn't a strategy." Indeed, Citi is now only the third-largest bank in the U.S. behind Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) after holding the top spot for the last decade.
????Pandit also told the audience he supported the so-called Volcker rule, which would restrict banks from speculating on stocks and bonds with their own capital. A draft of the rule was leaked last week and Pandit said Citi's army of legal minds was still parsing it. But, he said, it "sounds to me like they may have struck the right balance on both sides." |
