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????6月份當(dāng)季，即蘋(píng)果公司（Apple）的第三財(cái)季,，Mac是少數(shù)銷(xiāo)量沒(méi)有達(dá)到預(yù)期的產(chǎn)品之一,。分析人士原本預(yù)計(jì)銷(xiāo)量為420萬(wàn)臺(tái)，但蘋(píng)果公司只賣(mài)出了395萬(wàn)臺(tái),。

????本周二蘋(píng)果將公布第四財(cái)季業(yè)績(jī),，這種情況可能不會(huì)重演。

????所有人似乎都同意Mac是推動(dòng)本來(lái)可能萎縮的個(gè)人電腦市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的少數(shù)電腦產(chǎn)品之一,，特別是7月份蘋(píng)果推出了全新一代MacBook Air和Mac mini以來(lái)更是如此,，這兩款都是最受歡迎的蘋(píng)果產(chǎn)品之一。

????我們的業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)測(cè)調(diào)查中排名居前的53位分析師中,，除了兩人——券商Sterne Agee的肖?吳和券商Janney的比爾?蔡,，所有人都預(yù)測(cè)蘋(píng)果將打破去年圣誕節(jié)季度創(chuàng)下的413.4萬(wàn)臺(tái)Macs銷(xiāo)量紀(jì)錄。雖然Macs銷(xiāo)量預(yù)測(cè)值最低有吳和蔡的410萬(wàn)臺(tái),，最高有535萬(wàn)臺(tái)（AAPL Independent Analysts的奈維?奈格拉尼給出的預(yù)測(cè)值）,，但機(jī)構(gòu)分析師和獨(dú)立分析師的預(yù)測(cè)值差距還算比較小，至少與他們對(duì)營(yíng)業(yè)收入,、每股收益,、iPhone和iPad的預(yù)測(cè)值相比是如此。

????Mac銷(xiāo)量預(yù)期均值方面,，職業(yè)分析師們給出的是430萬(wàn)臺(tái),，博主們給出的估值是470萬(wàn)臺(tái)。所有53位分析師給出的平均預(yù)期略高于450萬(wàn)臺(tái),，同比增長(zhǎng)16%,。華爾街預(yù)計(jì)增幅14%,，其他預(yù)計(jì)21%。

????美國(guó)東部時(shí)間周二下午4點(diǎn)半左右隨著蘋(píng)果季度業(yè)績(jī)發(fā)布,，我們將看到誰(shuí)的預(yù)測(cè)最準(zhǔn)確,。蘋(píng)果擬定于當(dāng)日下午5點(diǎn)的電話(huà)會(huì)議上與分析人士討論這些數(shù)據(jù)，電話(huà)會(huì)議的網(wǎng)絡(luò)直播可點(diǎn)擊這里,。

????下表是迄今為止我們收集的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)及其提交日期,，獨(dú)立分析師標(biāo)綠，機(jī)構(gòu)分析師標(biāo)藍(lán),。排名反映的是過(guò)去三個(gè)季度各分析師的營(yíng)收和每股收益預(yù)測(cè)值的準(zhǔn)確度(越靠后越準(zhǔn)確)。

????The Mac was one of the few products that failed to live up to expectations in the June quarter (Apple's fiscal Q3). Analysts were looking for sales of 4.2 million. What Apple (AAPL) delivered was 3.95 million.

????That's not likely to happen again on Tuesday, when Apple reports its earnings for fiscal Q4.

????Everybody seems to agree that in a PC market that would otherwise be shrinking, the Mac is one of the few computer lines keeping it afloat, especially after the July refresh of two of Apple's most popular models: the MacBook Air and the Mac mini.

????Of 53 analysts polled in advance of our quarterly earnings smackdown, all but two -- Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu and Janney's Bill Choi -- are calling for Apple to beat the record 4.134 million Macs sold in the holiday quarter last year. Although the estimates range from Wu and Choi's low of 4.1 million to a high of 5.35 million (from Navin Nagrani of AAPL Independent Analysts), the spread between the institutional and independent analysts is relatively narrow, at least compared with their estimates for revenue, EPS, iPhones and iPads.

????The average Mac unit sales estimate among the pros is 4.3 million; among the bloggers it's 4.7 million. The average estimate of all 53 analysts is a little over 4.5 million, representing 16% growth from the same quarter last year. The Street is looking for 14%, the indies for 21%.

????We'll find out who was closest to the mark next Tuesday at about 4:30 p.m. EST, when the quarterly results hit the business wires. Apple is scheduled to discuss those results in a 5 p.m. conference call with analysts that the company will webcast here.

????Below: The estimates we've gathered so far and the dates they were submitted, with the independents in green and the institutionals in blue. The rank numbers show how accurate each analyst's revenue and EPS estimates were over the past three quarters (the lower the better).